Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.32% (2066.1), D -0.31% (17737.0), N -0.45% (4511.7), CL1 -3.29% (35.58), Copper -0.97% (214.25), Gold -0.52% (1216.14) 10YrYld -0.01 (1.7601), DXY -0.07% (94.55), Vix +7.40% (14.06).

The S&P closed down 10bps from the European close selling off a bit over the 2nd half of the US trading day from afternoon highs. Volumes down 10% to 6.3bln shares, well below avg of 7.5bln. Dollars traded off 17% to $225bln vs $260bln avg. 3:1 down volume over up volume.

Markets drift lower throughout the session, 14th consecutive with <1% move in S&P. Calm before the storm? VIX regains 14 handle. Eminis -30bps vs Most Short +10bps. DXY remains under pressure on light macro. Rates flat, 10yr 1.77%. Banks -30bps. Commods rolling, Oil failed to hold early rally breaking $36; Codelco don’t see Copper recovery for another couple of years. ALCOA -2.4% earnings only 1 week away; FREEPORT -5%. Brazil notable laggard; IBOV -4% as Rouseff vowed never to resign. No major earnings this morning; M&A and research driving most active names. ALASKA AIRLINES -3.8% paying $57/share ($4bn inc debt) for VIRGIN AMERICA +42%; beating JETBLUE -4.4%. BROCADE -14% acquiring RUCKUS +32% for $1.5bn cash/stock. HALIBURTON -3.2% / BAKER HUGHES -3.6% concerns growing DOJ will reject deal, suing ValueAct; and $3.5bn break fee. EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES (QCC) +17% tops S&P on +ve trial data; Biotech continues to outperform but faded over the afternoon; VALEANT -7% creditors said to resist loan pact. SHIRE (Buy) +1.6% testing 100dma. APPLE +1.6% breaks above 200dma as CS add to US focus list; FACEBOOK -3% weak on cautious DBK note, pushing TWITTER +7%. AMAZON -1% to announce new Kindle next week. TESLA +4% breaking out on +ve Model 3 preorders; still plenty of concerns of how co will meet the demand. Auto parts weak following EU carbon concerns and disappointing March sales; BORGWARNER -6.3%. Homebuilders given back most of last week’s gains; PULTE -6.6% seeing downgrades as CEO forced out. SUNEDISION -51% bankruptcy could come this week. No major earnings afterhours.

OUTPERFORMERS: Airlines +2.6%, Pharma +90bps, Biotech +80bps, Telcos +60bps, Tech Hardware +10bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Materials -2.8%, Gold Miners -2.6%, Autos -2.5%, Homebuilders -2.2%, Solar -2.1%

COMMODS: Nat Gas +2.3%, Nickel +50bps, Gold -50bps, Silver -70bps, Copper -90bps, WTI -2.8%, Sugar -3.3%, Coffee -3.8%

ECO: ISM NY 50.4, est 54.1. Labor Market conditions -2.1, est +1.5. Factory Orders -1.7%, est -1.7%, Durable Goods -3.0%, est -2.8%.


TESLA -2% q1 deliveries below est


FACEBOOK -3% cautious note @ Deutsche Bank, p/t raised @ Axiom
VEECO -2.1% u/g @ Summit Research
INTEL -1.4% d/g @ Exane BNP
APPLE +1% p/t lowered @ Brean Capital
MERCADOLIBRE -1.7% p/t raised @ Piper
VOXELJET -4.7% p/t raised @ Piper
WORKDAY +40bps cautious mention in Barron’s, p/t raised @ RBC
BROCADE -13.6% to acq RUCKUS WIRELESS +32.4% for $1.5bln cash/stock
GROUPON +9.4% to get $250mm investment from Comcast-backed firm
TWITTER +7% mentioned as possible payment partner by MasterCard

VIRGIN AMERICAN +41.7% to be acq’d by ALAKSA AIRLINES -3.8% for $2.6bln cash
WHITEWAVE -5.7% d/g @ CLSA
HIBBETT SPORTS +2.2% u/g @ Sterne Agee
SHAKE SHACK -2.1% Leonard Green & Partners adopts trading plan
JM SMUCKER -3.7% d/g to sell @ Goldman
ENERGIZER +3.1% u/g @ Goldman
TESLA +4% strong Model 3 preorders
SMITH & WESSON -17.9% multiple d/g’s on poor background check data
PULTEGROUP -6.6% d/g @ Zelman
NIKE -2.6% falls through 200dma
WHITEWAVE -5.7% neg note @ CLSA

POTASH -3.8% /MOSAIC -3.8% both d/g @ CIBC


SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS -55bps positive comments @ Bernstein
EATON -1.6% d/g @ Longbow
MANITOWOC -1.2% d/g @ Credit Suisse
BORGWARNER -6.4% cautious note on impact of environmental lobby in Europe @ Wells Fargo

REGENERON unch’d: p/t raised @ Leerink
EXPRESS SCRIPTS -1.1% u/g @ Cowen
THERMO FISHER +1% p/t raised @ Mizuho
EDWARD LIFESCIENCE +16.9% positive aortic valve study

AMEREN +60bps d/g @ Argus, u/g @ Barclays

BAKER HUGHES -3.5% / HALIBURTON -3.1% deal likely to be blocked by gov’t per report

This week’s Earnings and ECO highlights…..

TUES: Darden, Walgreens; NVIDIA Investor Day, First Solar Analyst Day; Services/Comp PMI, ISM Non-Man, JOLTS Jobs
WED: Acuity Brands, Apollo Education, Constellation, Monsanto, Bed Bath & Beyond; FOMC minutes
THU: CarMax, ConAgra, Rite Aid; GPS/LB comps
FRI: No earnings, Marriot/Starwood ESM

Have a good evening.