Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.63% (2072.8), D +0.61% (17792.8), N +1.08% (4532.1), CL1 -4.25% (36.72), Copper -0.71% (216.75), Gold -0.85% (1222.19) 10YrYld +0.01 (1.7757), DXY -0.01% (94.59), Vix -5.81% (13.14).

Markets go out at session highs, Nasdaq getting a boost from Biotech unwind; $2bn Buy imbalance on the close. S&P +50bps from Euro close; Most Short +40bps. Overall volumes +2.8% DoD and 7% below 20d ave. S&P +2.8% for the week, with over 10% hitting new 52 week high today. DXY seeing a little support on better macro, but struggling to hold any rally. Much the same rates, Mester cautious on delaying further hikes; 10yr 1.77%. Banks took their time to react to the number but woke up through the morning, concerns remain over a tough earnings season for the space; CITI +1.7%. Oil down 7% this week, upcoming OPEC meeting looking it could be waste of time as Saudis will only freeze if Iran does, which they won’t….so risk remains lower. Rigs -10; OSX -3.5%. Copper/Gold rolling; XME +60bps, GDX +80bps. On Earnings; MARVELL -3.6% (sees FY net loss), BLACKBERRY -7.5% (big rev miss). In M&A; Anbang pulls interest in STARWOOD -5%, leaving MARRIOT -5.7% to pursue merger; some concerns AMERICAN EXPRESS -50bps may lose contract with Starwood as a result. ORANGE ADR -5% end talks with Bouygues. Biotech unwind continues today, IBB +3% posts first close above 50dma this year; REGENERON +12% tops the S&P following +ve trial data, SHIRE +1.7% looking interesting again. TESLA +3% failed to hold early break as market digested Model 3 launch, pre-orders already above 200k and rising fast, over $7bn in future orders, but don’t expect to get one for a few years! March Auto sales released, overall light of expectations and notable declines at premium end BMW -13% YoY; FORD -3%, FCAU -4%. Airlines lagging on sector downgrade; DELTA -3.4%, UNITED -5%. Looking into next week; Earnings expected from BBBY, CAG, KMX, MON, STZ, WBA; NVDA Investor Day, FSLR Analyst Meeting.

OUTPERFORMERS: Biotech +2.8%, Inv Banks +1.9%, Pharma +1.6%, Staple +1.3%, Insurers +1.3%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Drillers -4.3%, Oil Services -3.5%, Autos -2%, Airlines -1.3%, Homebuilders -40bps

COMMODS: Ally +1.8%, Cotton +1.4%, Copper -90bps, Gold -1.2%, Nickel -2%, Silver -3%, WTI -4.1%, Heating Oil -4.4%

ECO: Nonfarm 215k, est 205k. Hourly earnings MoM +0.3%, est +0.2%. Man PMI 51.5, est 51.5. ISM Man 51.8, est 51.5. Construction Spending -0.5%, est +0.1%. Michigan Sentiment 91.0, est 90.5. Domestic Vehicle Sales; Total.

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Biotech +4%, Real Estate +3%, Inv Banks +3%, Homebuilders +3%, Media +2.7%

WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMERS: Drillers -5%, Oil Services -3%, Rails -2%, Transport -1%, Regional Banks -20bps

Have a great weekend…..