Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.44% (2064.0), D +0.47% (17716.7), N +0.52% (4490.9), CL1 +0.00% (38.28), Copper -1.13% (218.90), Gold -1.34% (1225.66) 10YrYld +0.02 (1.8228), DXY -0.34% (94.83), Vix -1.95% (13.54).

Yellen rally continues today. S&P unch from the Euro close. Most Short -50bps. Overall volumes -7% DoD and 15% below 20d ave. DXY -30bps remains under pressure and market seems to think this move has legs this time; Golden cross triggered, 94 big level on DXY to watch. Rates a little better and provide a little support to the banks, BKX +80bps; although worth noting more cautious sell side commentary on Bank earnings doing the rounds (3 weeks away). Evan’s saying “very shallow” pace of rate hikes is warranted. We continue to focus on our QCC Basket; new highs COLGATE, ESTEE LAUDER, J&J, PHILIP MORRIS (Full thoughts on the note). Oil sees 5% reversal over the last 24hrs; inventory build and Reuters survey found output rising in March thanks to Iraq and Iran; we continue to see risk to downside. Gold/Copper failed to hold yesterday’s rally; GDX -1.5%. On Earnings; LULULEMON +11% (good qtr, mixed guide but bullish 5yr plan, 21% SI), RESTORATION HARDWARE +4% (also weak guide but 22% SI), CARNIVAL +6% (Q1 Beats and guide seen as conservative). Overall news flow remains light. Few interesting charts to note…. SOX following Asian comps higher, forming mini breakout, APPLE +1.8% sees upgrade and supply names outperform. eGaming plays continue to rally; 5th consecutive new high NVIDIA +1.1%, focus now on next week’s Investor day; ACTIVISION +2.5% now rallied 30% since the earnings wobble. Biotech opened strong but IBB failed to hold 50dma, a level the ETF has been below all year. Homebuilders also give back half of yesterday’s rally, S15HOME failed to hold early test of 200dma. Last day of the quarter tomorrow; no major earnings, TESLA (Sell) -1.4% unveils Model 3 after the close.

OUTPERFORMERS: Insurance +1.4%, Tech Hardware +1.3%, Oil Services +1.2%, SOX +1%, Inv Banks +90bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -1.5%, Homebuilders -1.3%, Refiners -90bps, Biotech -70bps, Utils -20bps

COMMODS: OJ +3.9%, Nat Gas +70bps, Ally +40bps, WTI +40bps, Silver +10bps, Gold -70bps, Copper -1%, Wheat -2.6%

ECO: ADP Employment 200k, est 195k


MICRON +1% Q2 EPS Loss 5c, est Loss 9c. Revs $2.93bn, est $3.05bn. Guides Q3 EPS/Revs lower.


CARNIVAL +5.5% better qtr but guides to lower end
LULULEMON +10.7% good qtr but guide mixed
SHAKE SHACK +2.5% upgrade at Longbow
SONIC +6.2% Beat and Raise
VINCE -14% Q4 inline, reaffirms FY

INTEROIL +11% terrible numbers, in talks to increase credit

AIG +2.1% upgrade at Janney
CITI +40bps Q1 ests cut at Atlantic
METLIFE +5.4% favorable court ruling
STATE STREET +5bps Buying GE +1.1% Asst Man for $485m

ACADIA +9.2% +ve FDA results
INOVIO +6% +ve Ebola vaccine update
MEDIVATION -3.5% 3rd day of declines on pricing concerns
OPKO -10.6% –ve FDA response
VALEANT -6.6% comfortable with current liquidity position

BOEING -1.8% cutting over 4k jobs from commercial planes div
GENERAL MOTORS -60bps cutting sales to rental co’s by ~20%; March Autos Sales Friday

FREEPORT +1.5% reinstated Neutral at Barclays
RIO TINTO ADR +3.4% initiated Buy at Argus
VALE +2.9% BZ proxies generally higher

DEVRY -6.5% 4.8m share block
PAYCHEX -2.2% qtr inline, reaffirms FY

APPLE +1.8% upgrade at Cowen
NXP SEMI +10bps 5.5m share block
VERINT -4.8% downgrades post big Miss

Have a good evening.