Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.06% (2037.1), D +0.11% (17535.4), N -0.17% (4398.1), CL1 -0.13% (39.40), Copper +0.58% (224.20), Gold +0.29% (1219.97) 10YrYld -0.02 (1.8825), DXY -0.30% (95.98), Vix +3.39% (15.22).

Markets close flattish, quiet session given the Easter holiday. Eminis -10bps vs Most Short -60bps. Overall volumes -18% from Thursday and 36% below 20d ave. DXY -30bps failed to hit 7th successive rally; GBP 1.4255, EUR 1.12. Rates lower, Williams flagging China and Brazil concerns, 10yr 1.88%. Yellen speaking 11:30am ET tomorrow. Brazilian proxies outperforming on more hopes of govt change; EWZ +3.8%, PBR +7%. Oil failed to hold early gains, slipping back to $39; Copper holding the range. XME +5bps, XLE -50bps. NOBLE ENERGY -8% following Israel Nat Gas decision. On Earnings; CAL-MAINE FOODS +9% (Q3 EPS/Revs Beat), GAMESTOP -60bps (weak Q1 guide). New highs in COCA-COLA (Technical Buy) +50bps, GENERAL ELECTRIC (Buy / GDP) +1.2%. In M&A, Anbang consortium come back with revised offer for STARWOOD +2%, around 9% above MARRIOT +4%; clearly more to come here, several regulatory issues highlighted. VIRGIN AMERICA +10% said to attract bid from JETBLUE +2.7% and ALASKA AIR +1.1% (bberg). Retailers trade well on better Personal Income data; FINISH LINE +12% tops movers on upgrade (9% SI); FOOT LOCKER (Buy) +2.7% now reversed weakness post NIKE. In Media; TIME WARNER +4% “Batman vs Superman” tops box office despite mixed reviews; INTERPUBLIC (Buy) +2.2% gets a push in Barron; DISNEY +1% becomes most shorted stock in Dow (replacing CAT). Homebuilders seeing some support on better Pending Home Sales; LENNAR (buy) +80bps report tomorrow. Biotech mixed; ALDER +50% +ve study on migraine drug, still long way to go (AMGN/LLY/TEVA all further ahead with competing drugs); VALEANT’S -8% outgoing CEO subpoenaed to testify at senate next month. FACEBOOK (buy) +50bps almost back to the highs, Oculus rift goes on sale today ($599, ships July); NVIDIA +1.1% (Buy) fresh highs, our top VR plays. S&P CaseShiller and Confidence expected tomorrow.

OUTPERFORMERS: Airlines +1.3%, Homebuilders +1.1%, Media +90bps, Real Estate +90bps, Retail +80bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Railroads -2.4%, Biotech -1.3%, Explorers -1.1%, Pharma -50bps, Utils -35bps

COMMODS: Nat Gas +2.8%, Wheat +1.8%, Copper +60bps, Silver +10bps, Gold -10bps, WTI -20bps, OJ -1%, Heating Oil -1.2%

ECO: Personal Income +0.2%, est +0.1%; Spending and PCE inline. Pending Home Sales MoM +3.5%, est +1.2%; YoY +5.1%, est -0.5%. Dallas Fed Manf -13.6%, -25.8.

Have a good evening.