Aviate: US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.03% (2036.0), D +0.08% (17515.7), N +0.07% (4405.5), CL1 -0.60% (39.55), Copper +0.00% (223.55), Gold -0.26% (1216.94) 10YrYld +0.02 (1.9000), DXY +0.07% (96.11), Vix -0.40% (14.88).

Markets go out broadly flat, early weakness bought through the afternoon; S&P -70bps on the week. Eminis unch vs Most Short +70bps. Overall Volumes -10% DoD and -23% from 20d ave. DXY +10% holding gains as Fed’s Bullard adds to this week’s hawkish skew, hinting May could be possible; 10yr 1.90%. Banks rolling over, interesting to see UBS put a Sell on WELLS FARGO -1.7%, highlighting credit risks and Macquarie put out cautious sector note focused on earnings; BKX -70bps. Oil bounced 3% off morning lows, Rigs -15% new low for move. Gold and Copper in the red again but key proxies bounce; XME +2.6%, GDX +2.3%. CAT +2.2% getting a push from channel check specialist OTR. On Earnings; PVH +8% (Solid guide with Calvin Klein outperforming), ACCENTURE +6% (new all time highs following Beat & Raise), KB HOME +6% (Solid qtr, but guides Revs lower), SIGNET +3% (guides FY EPS higher), FINISH LINE +1% (solid qtr but mixed guide). Overall news flow very light as we head into the long weekend. MEDIVATION +8% on the M&A radar as speculation of bid grows. Looking into next week; Monday will be quiet with many markets closed, Pending Home Sales duw; on Tuesday we get earnings from LENNAR (Buy) and 3M (QCC) Investor Day, Yellen also speaking 11:30am ET; ADP and MICRON/LULULEMON earnings on Wednesday and big macro day on Friday with Nonfarm, ISM and Auto Sales.

OUTPERFORMERS: Materials +2.6%, Gold Miners +2.3%, Telco +1%, Explorers +80bps, Retail +50bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Airlines -1.4%, Solar -1.1%, Insurers -1%, Defence -1%, Autos -90bps

COMMODS: Gasoline +90bps, Nat Gas +80bps, Copper unch, Gold -25bps, Ally -30bps, Silver -50bps, WTI -50bps, Sugar -5.7%

ECO: Iniital Jobless 265k, est 269k. Durable Goods -2.8%, est -3.0%. Services PMI 51.0, est 51.4. Comp PMI 51.1, prev 50.0. Kansas City Fed -6, prev -12.


GAMESTOP -8% Q4 Revs light and weak comp guide, also sees FY EPS at lower end


ALTRIA -90bps cut to Neutral at BAML
BUFFALO WILD WINGS +1.7% added to Con Buy at GS
FINISH LINE +70bps Q4 Beats but cuts FY EPS guide.
KB HOMES +6.3% Q1 ahead but cut Q2 Rev guide 5% at midpoint
OFFICE DEPOT +9% / STAPLES +7% judge rebukes FTC legal tactics in merger
PHILIP MORRI +50bpsS raised to Buy at BAML
PVH +7.6% Q4 Beat and Solid Q1 guide
SIGNET +2.9% already preannounced, see FY EPS at upper end
SPORTSMAN’S WAREHOUSE -11.3% Q4 Beat, guides FY EPS lower, flagging weather
VIRGIN AMERICA -1.6% Cowen suggesting JETBLUE -1.6% could be likely acquirer

BAKER HUGHES -60bps North American Rigs -26; Oil -15 new low for move
PETROBRAS +80bps cut to Sell at DBK

GOLDMAN -70bps and MORGAN STANLEY -1.4% cautious comments at Macquarie
HSBC -1.2% cut to Underperform at BAML
NOMURA -2.9% cutting 20% of North American workforce
WELLS FARGO -1.7% New Sell at UBS

LANNETT -10% cut to Sell at Canaccord
MEDIVATION +8% ongoing t/o speculation
REGENERON +1.5% in JV with Bayer

CAT +2.2% raised to Positive at OTR Global
DOW CHEM +30bps assumed Outperform at CSFB
GENERAL DYNAMICS -3.9% cut to Hold at DBK
PACCAR -40bps sees €945m charge for EU fine
TEREX +5.5% Zoomlion offers $31/share

VALE +5.2% raised to Buy at BAML

ACCENTURE +6.2% Beat & Raise, Bookings 2% beat, GM light
DIEBOLD +8.7% hits target in Wincor deal
OUTERWALL +4.2% Redbox said to plan streaming service
PANDORA +10.6% may explore sale (dealreporter)
PAYPAL -4% Apple Pay concerns
TIVO +23.4% said to be in talks with ROVI -1.3% (NYT)
T-MOBILE -20bps rated New Buy at FBR
YAHOO +20bps Starboard nominates 9 directors to board