Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.64% (2036.7), D -0.45% (17502.6), N -0.79% (4402.6), CL1 -4.00% (39.79), Copper -2.18% (223.95), Gold -2.16% (1221.35) 10YrYld -0.06 (1.8786), DXY +0.42% (96.05), Vix +4.59% (14.82).

The S&P closed down 30bps from the European close to end the day essentially on session lows. Volumes actually up a touch on the down action, 10% higher today to 6.8bln but still well below avg of 8bln. Dollars traded just about flat at $235bln, $35bln below est. Down volume all the action: more than 85% of activity today.

Markets lower across the board; Commod, Shorts and Biotech leading the declines. Most Short -3.2%, vols remain light. DXY posts 4th straight rally, EUR 1.1175, GBP 1.4109. Rates also lower with 10yr giving back yesterday’s move 1.87%; Utils +1% vs Banks -1%. Bullard sees April as possibility. Oil breaks $40 as Inventory builds increase. Gold sees biggest move down in 5 weeks, Silver puts up biggest down day of the year. ALCOA -5%, NEWMONT -9%, FREEPORT -11%. So, no surprise to see EM weaker; EEM -1.7% back below 200dma, EWZ -4.5%, EZA -3.1%. On Earnings; FIVE BELOW +7% (Q4 solid but guide light), STEELCASE +1% (guides Q1 to lower end), NIKE -4% (future orders remain strong, particularly in China, no major change in guidance from analyst day, bullish on Olympics / Euro), RED HAT -4% (we think part of this slow down in billings growth is due to the success of Micro Focus), KRISPY KREME -7% (cuts FY). NVIDIA +1.7% makes another new high, positive read from Thermaltake in Asia and accelerated repurchase agreement for 12.1m shares (inline with plan). GOOGLE -30bps hosts cloud conference today and tomorrow, lots of cloud war chatter today with AMAZON +1.6% seen as the target. TESLA (Sell) -5% rolling, focus on Model 3 event on March 31st, we remain cautious given valuation/ balance sheet/ competition concerns. PEPCO +27% as $6.8bn EXELON deal approved at 3rd attempt. VIRGIN AMERICA +13% said to be considering sale after receiving interest, no names mentioned; JETBLUE +2% (Technical Sell). StreetInsider suggest MEDIVATION +1% could be a target for SANOFI -1.2%, numbers don’t make much sense. MONDELEZ +10bps added to Technical Sell list today, been under pressure following Ackman sale; VALEANT +5% continues to bounce, but not enough to stop Biotech reversal. Looking into tomorrow; Earnings expcted from CCL/GME/SIG; Durable Goods, Services/Comp PMI.

OUTPERFORMERS: Utils +90bps, Staples +10bps, Airlines -20bps, Defense -30bps, Telco -40bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -6.8%, Materials -6.2%, Drillers -4.8%, Solar -4.1%, Biotech -3.5%

COMMODS: Sugar +1%, Ally-1.4%, Gold -1.9%, Gold -1.9%, Copper -2.3%, Silver -3.8%, Nat Gas -3.8%, WTI -4.2%

ECO: New Home Sales 512k, est 510k; MoM +2.0%, est +3.2%


TEREX +9.3% gets revised bid from Zoomlion
VITAE PHARM -4.2% secondary
OXFORD INDUSTRIES -3.6% q4 eps beat, revs miss, guidance light
KB HOME +8.8% q1 eps/revs beat
PVH CORP +5.4% q4 eps/revs beat, q1 guide above est
LANNETT -3.5% guides fy revs below est


LIONSGATE -3.4% supportive comments @ Piper Jaffray
REDHAT -4.2% q4 beat, fy view better than est
NUANCE -6.3% neg implications from Google speech recognition plans

GENERAL MILLS +40bps q3 eps beats, revs light, reaffirms
FIVE BELOW +6.8% q4 eps small beat, revs inline, guidance inline to touch lower
STEELCASE +1% q4 just beats, guidance about inline
KRISPY KREME -7.9% q4 eps just beats, revs miss, fy view below est
NIKE -3.8% q3 eps beat, revs touch light, global futures ahead w/ North America, Europe, Emerging Mkts trailing, China better
FRANCESCA’S +3.4% q4 eps/revs beat
FRED’S -6.3% q4 beats but outlook dissapoints
LULULEMON -45bps p/t increased @ Oppenheimer
ESTEE LAUDER +20bps u/g @ Morgan Stanley
MICHAELS COS -2.3% secondary for hldr
PINNACLE FOODS -5.5% CEO departs
PHILIP MORRIS +35bpsp/t raised @ Cowen
RALPH LAUREN -1.9% cautious mention @ OTR Global
YUM! BRANDS -2% report may sell 20% stake in China biz
VIRGIN AMERICA +13.2% may consider sale per press

NOVARTIS -65bps d/g @ Leerink
GILEAD -3.9% loses patent claim vs Merck

NASDAQ +35bps d/g @ Raymond James

HOLLYFRONTIER -8.6% d/g to sell @ Goldman
APACHE -4.8% d/g @ Capital One


CINTAS -4.5% q3 beat, fy guidance inline

Have a good evening