Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.43% (2049.3), D +0.69% (17602.3), N +0.24% (4410.8), CL1 -2.16% (39.33), Copper -0.09% (229.05), Gold -0.26% (1254.62) 10YrYld -0.02 (1.8732), DXY +0.33% (95.06), Vix -3.25% (14.01).

The S&P closed inline with the European close up through the second half of the afternoon back to the higher end of the day’s range. Volumes jump w/ quad-witching to 10.4bln shares, surging past 8bln shares. Dollars traded also up to $382bln vs avg of $270bln. Despite the move higher in the indices up volume only about 57% of trading activity.

Markets close at week highs with S&P turning positive on the year, +1.4% on the week. Eminis +40bps vs Most Short +50bps. Volumes skewed by expiry but overall light. DXY +30bps seeing a little relief today, EUR 1.1274/JPY 111.57. Rates remain under pressure, 10yr going out on week lows 1.87%; Banks higher on Buyback expansions; BAML/JPM +3%. Oil broke above $41 this morning but faded through the afternoon; Rigs +1, 1st increase in 13 weeks. Weekly moves; Oil +2%, Copper +2%, Gold -30bps. EM holding gains with EEM ETF +50bps closing above 200dma for first times since June last year. On Earnings; ADOBE +4% (Beat & Raise, bullish cloud), TIFFANY +2.5% (Sell, same concerns remain, weak guide), AEROPOSTALE -46% (weak numbers, reviewing strategic alternatives). In M&A, STARWOOD +5.5% new highs for move, looks set to accept improved $13.2bn bid from Anbang; MARRIOT +2% expected to counter. COLUMBIA PIPLINE +6% acquired by TransCanada in $10.2bn deal. KKR buying Airbus defence electronics div for €1.1bn. NVIDIA (Buy) +3% hits new all time following new Buy initiation. Transports continue you break higher; FEDEX +1.5% holding gains and Airlines getting a nice bid; DELTA +3%. Biotech bouncing, no catalyst and no relief for VALEANT -9%, default concerns growing. Looking into next week; earnings from Gamestop, Nike (QCC), PVH, Red Hat and Signet; CAGE & BioPharma Asia conference, BAML Auto Summit; New Home Sales, GDP. Market closed next Friday.

OUTPERFORMERS: Banks +2%, Biotech +1.7%, Transport +1.7%, Refiners +1.5%, Semis +1.4%, Homebuilders +1.2%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Drillers -4.1%, Oil Services -1.7%, Telco -1%, Utils -70bps, Con Disc -60bps

COMMODS: Coffee +1.1%, Nickel +90bps, Copper -30bps, Gold -90bps, Ally -90bps, WTI -1%, Silver -1.3%, Nat Gas -2.2%

ECO: Michigan Sentiment 105.6, est 106.8

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Materials +7.4%, Transports +5%, Gold Miners +3.8%, Industrials +3.5%, Homebuilders +3%

WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMERS: Biotech -4%, Drillers -2.8%, Pharma -2.7%, Oil Services -1.2%, Solar -20bps


ADOBE +3.9% q1 eps/revs beat, q2 guide midpoint better than est
MICRON +2.5% d/g @ Susquehanna
NVIDIA +3% new buy @ Argus
PAYPAL -1.3% d/g @ Stifel

VALEANT -9.1% said to reach out to lenders
AMERISOURCEBERGEN +1.9% option to buy shares exercised by WALGREENS +80bps
INTERCEPT +1.1% renewed t/o talk mentioning AstraZeneca
HORIZON PHARMA -1.8% negative mention @ Bernstein
REGENERON -25bps positive comments @ Leerink
ENDO -65bps d/g off top pick list @ RBC

KENNAMETAL -5.3% d/g @ Longbow
IROBOT -2.2% d/g @ JPMorgan
CATEPILLAR -60bps Feb machine sales decline accelerates vs Jan

WYNN +5.9% Macau sector u/g @ Macquarie
STARWOOD +5.5% sees Anbang bid as superior to MARRIOTT
TIFFANY +3% q4 slight miss, growth pushed 2nd of year but margins solid
RESTORATION HARDWARE +1.6% d/g @ Buckingham
YUM! BRANDS -60bps positive comments @ UBS
NIKE -30bps positive comments @ Brean
SHOE CARNIVAL +6% q4 eps/revs beat

BANK OF AMERICA +2.9% $800mm b/b

CEMEX +6.2% u/g @ Credit Suisse

WHITING PETROLEUM -8.4% exchange deal w/ creditors
CARBO CERAMICS -12.4% negative mention @ Forensic Research
COLUMBIA PIPELINE +5.7% to be acq’d by TRANSCANADA -1.1% for $13bln incl debt

Have a great weekend…..