Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.13% (2019.6), D +0.09% (17229.1), N +0.13% (4367.3), CL1 -3.22% (37.26), Copper -0.11% (223.85), Gold -1.34% (1234.00) 10YrYld -0.02 (1.9609), DXY +0.41% (96.57), Vix +2.48% (16.91).

The S&P closed up 20bps from the European close to end the day just below the flat line. Volumes were off 16% today from Friday to 6.3bln shares, now 2bln below avg. Dollars traded off 18% to $220bln, more than $50bln below avg. Down volume about 65% of activity.

Very quiet session with markets broadly flat, lowest volumes ytd; Eminis unch vs Most Short unch (first time for everything!). DXY +50bps rallying as EUR slips below 1.11. Rates drifting a little, focus remains on the Fed Wednesday but we have Retail Sales, PPI, CPI and Housing Starts ahead. 10yr 1.96%; Banks -40bps. Oil pulling back to $37; Iran production saw biggest monthly gain since 1997, no freeze talks. Gold remains for sale, uptrend tested and RR suggesting to focus on Silver. Mixed performance from Commod proxies; FREEPORT +5%, ALCOA +2%, BAKER HUGHES -4%, SOTHWESTERN -7%. Brazil weak on protests and Rousseff may name Lula (facing money laundering charge) as minister; EWZ -3%. Hotel space outperforming as STARWOOD +8% receives counter offer from Anbang at $76/share in cash; Anbang also buying Strategic Hotels from Blackstone for $6.5bn. APOLLO buying FRESH MARKET +23% for $28.50/share ($1.4bn) in cash; KROGER (Buy) -50bps remains our top pick in the space. ACTIVISION (Buy) +3% outperforming, game developers conference kicks off in SF today; eSports summit tomorrow. ZTE remains suspended (6th day), we reiterate our Sell calls in CISCO -50bps and MELLANOX -30bps on today’s note. In our disruption themes; interesting to see ALIBABA -1% making logistics push in China; and GRUBHUB -80bps seeing some cautious commentary as UberEats comes to market. WSJ picks up on Auto loans/subprime concerns; AUTONATION -2%, SANTANDER CONSUMER -5%. Reuters reporting nearly 300 institutional investors have filed a $3.6bn lawsuit against Volkswagen (pink -4.5% from Euro close). Japan rates tonight, no change expected. Looking into tomorrow; earnings from ORACLE (QCC) after the close; BAML Consumer and Retail Tech conf (KR/WMT/YUM).

OUTPERFORMERS: Cons Services +1.3%, Materials +50bps, Cons Disc +40bps, Software +30bps, Media +20bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -4.3%, Oil Services -2.6%, Drillers -2.3%, Chems -90bps, Homebuilders -80bps

COMMODS: OJ +5.2%, Sugar +2.1%, Cotton +1.9%, Copper unch, Silver -1%, Ally -1.2%, Gold -1.8%, Nickel -2.5%, WTI -3.3%

ECO: Nothing of interest.

AFTER HOURS

OUTERWALL +10% doubles div

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
CYBERARK -30bps u/g @ Summit Research
EXPEDIA +1.3% positive comments @ Deutsche
APPLE +25bps sees upgrades below est @ UBS
LAM RESEARCH +1% remains a top pick @ Cowen
ARISTA NETWORKS -10% p/t cut @ Jefferies
3D SYSTEMS +25% q4 beats
FACEBOOK +40bps positive qtrly trends seen @ Baird
WESTERN DIGITAL -3.4% p/t cut @ Jefferies
SANDISK -60bps d/g @ Citi
TRIPADVISOR +4.5% t/o speculation

CONSUMER
STARWOOD +7.8% gets bid from bid Chinese consortium threatening MARRIOTT agreement
CONSTELLATOIN BRANDS -10bps u/g @ SunTrust
PVH +50bps p/t raised @ Piper Jaffray
THE FRESH MARKET +23.5% to be acq’d by p/e for $1.36bln
TESLA +3.7% u/g @ Baird
PULTE -30bps p/t increased @ RBC
CHILDRENS PLACE +2.6% u/g @ Wolfe Research
COOPER TIRE -7.5% cautious mention @ Off Wall St

CAPITAL GOODS
AMPHENOL -90bps / ARRIS -5.2% d/g @ Goldman
ARROW ELECTRONICS +20bps u/g @ Goldman
HARMAN +2.4% u/g @ Evercore ISI
AUTOLIV -40bps d/g @ Evercore ISI
WABCO +20bps u/g @ BofA/Merrill
BRUKER +90bps p/t raised @ Stifel

HEALTHCARE
JOHNSON & JOHNSON -5bps u/g from sell @ Goldman

MATERIALS
PLY GEM HLDGS +14% q4 adj ebitda beats, revs miss, q1 guide midpoint better than est
MONSANTO -1.2% d/g @ Citi
YAMANA GOLD -3.5% u/g @ Raymond James

FINANCIALS/REITS
EQUINIX -1.3% d/g @ Oppenheimer
US BANCORP +10bps u/g @ Atlantic
PNC -70bps d/g @ Atlantic
BLACKSTONE -80bps selling Strategic Hotels for $6.5bln
COMERICA +1.4% u/g @ CLSA

TRANSPORTATION
KNIGHT TRANSPORTATION -2.4% / WERNER -2.9% d/g @ Avondale

ENERGY
NOBLE CORP -1.9% d/g @ Seaport Global
DIAMOND OFFSHORE -2.9% u/g @ Seaport Global

Have a good evening.