Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +1.60% (2022.0), D +1.28% (17213.3), N +1.75% (4361.8), CL1 +1.88% (38.56), Copper +0.72% (223.60), Gold -1.74% (1250.23) 10YrYld +0.04 (1.9768), DXY +0.17% (96.24), Vix -8.70% (16.31).

The S&P closed up 30bps from the European close, squeezing to the highs of the day out of very narrow trading range over the last hour. Volumes falling off the end the week down 12% today to 7.4bln shares, more than 1bln below avg. Dollars traded off 10% to $260bln falling $20bln below avg. 85% of volume printing to the upside, though.

Markets higher across the board, Shorts/Oil proxies leading; S&P +1.2% on the week. FX market a little volatile today with EUR failing to hold 1.12; BRL continues to strengthen. IBOV testing 50k, feels like breakout coming. US 10yr continues to push higher, rallying from 1.80-1.97% this week; Banks trading well, BKX +2.9%. Regional’s back to recent highs. (Euro banks +5%). Interesting to see Utils +2% this week (where the bulk of RRs longs lie), and the BKX small down. Commod mixed, Oil testing $39 and Copper bouncing; Gold hit a new high but since faded 2%. On the week; Oil +7%, Gold -90bps, Copper -1.4%. High shorts in the Energy space outperforming; SWN 10%, DVN 10%, APC +9%; Goldman upgrading several names. Rigs -6. On Earnings; FINISAR +21% (guides to upper end, upgrades), ULTA SALON +17% (raised FY comp guide), VERIFONE +6% (raised FY), EL POLLO LOCO -8% (guides to lower end), ZUMIEZ -13% (weak Feb comps and guide). Not a lot of news again; Semis staging nice breakout, SMH +2%; we see ARM +2.2% as clear beneficiary whatever the outcome of trade war. (more on the weekender attached) Looking into next week…..Chinese IP/Retail Sales tomorrow, BOJ rates Monday night and Fed on Wednesday (WIRP 6%) both expected to have little market impact. Earnings expected from ORACLE (QCC), FEDEX (logistics disruption) and ADOBE. Don’t forget…..US clocks spring forward this weekend….1:30pm UK open for 2 weeks…..

OUTPERFORMERS: Oil Services +4.3%, Inv Banks +4%, Homebuilders +3.4%, Banks +2.9%, Biotech +2.7%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -2%, Utils -10bps, Staple +20bps, Materials +20bps, Telco +30bps

COMMODS: Coffee +3.2%, Nat Gas +1.9%, WTI +1.5%, Copper +1.1%, Nickel +90bps, Silver +50bps, Ally +10bps, Gold -1%

ECO: Import Price Index -0.3%, est -0.7%.

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Materials +3%, Energy +2%, Utils +2%, Homebuilders +2%, Retail +1.7%

WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMERS: Drillers -4%, Airlines -1.7%, Autos -80bps, Biotech -70bps, Banks -30bps
ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
LIONSGATE -1% positive comments in Barron’s
MARVEL +2.8% denies talks to be acq’d by BROADCOM
FINISAR +20.9% q3 eps beats, q4 eps/revs midpoint above est
VERIFONE +6.2% q1 eps/revs beat, fy guide beats
AUTOBYTEL +3.5% q4 eps beats, revs inline

CONSUMER
HERTZ +12.3% u/g @ Morgan Stanley
ARCTIC CAT -9.7% d/g to sell @ Wunderlich
WYNN RESORTS +2.4% d/g @ Sterne Agee
JC PENNEY -2.9% p/t raised @ Deutsche
HIBBETT SPORTS +70bps q4 beats, fy eps view below est
WILLIAMS-SONOMA -5bps d/g @ BofA/Merrill
ZUMIEZ -13.1% q4 eps/revs beat prior guide, q1 guidance miss
ULTA SALONS +17.3% q4 eps/revs beat, $200mm accelerated b/b, q1 eps guide better
EL POLLO LOCO -8.2% q4 1c eps beat, revs small miss, comps beat, fy eps view midpoint below est
BOJANGLES +23.6% q4 eps beat, revs inline, adj ebitda beats

HEALTHCARE
ZIMMER BIOMET +3.7% positive comments @ Jefferies

CAPITAL GOODS
WW GRAINGER -30bps Feb daily sales +1%
UNITED TECHNOLOGIES +60bps open to lrg acq per press
ORBITAL ATK +10bps defended @ KeyBanc

FINANCIALS
WADELL & REED +5.6% added to focus list as sell @ Citi

MATERIALS
POTASH +20bps d/g @ Atlantic

ENERGY
PATTERSON-UTI +1.2% d/g @ BMO
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL +2% hires advisor for asset sale program, u/g to conviction buy @ Goldman
TOTAL +4.2% d/g off conviction buy @ Goldman
CHEVRON +70bps, OASIS PETROLEUM +4.8%, WEATHERFORD +9.5%, OCEANEERING +13.3%, FMC TECHNOLOGIES +8.6%, ANADARKO +8.9% u/g @ Goldman
ATWOOD OCEANICS +3.2%, NOBLE CORP +1.2%, DIAMOND OFFSHORE +4.4%, HELMERICH & PAYNE +2.3% d/g@ Goldman
OCEAN RIG UDW +1.7% d/g @ Piper
BONANZA CREEK -40bps draws down $209mm from credit facility

SERVICES
FTI CONSULTING -2.8% d/g @ William Blair
Have a great weekend.