Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.02% (1989.6), D -0.03% (16995.1), N -0.15% (4287.0), CL1 -0.97% (37.91), Copper -0.36% (222.45), Gold +1.46% (1271.43) 10YrYld +0.05 (1.9270), DXY -1.01% (96.20), Vix -1.58% (18.05).

The S&P closed up 70bps from the European close essentially rallying 1% in the 2nd half of the day from session lows back to flat. Volumes up 11% to 8.3bln shares but still below avg of 8.5bln. Dollars traded 17% to $287bln moving just above avg of $284bln. Up/down volume just about exactly a 50/50 split.

Tough session as markets initially rallied on ECB but reversed during the press conference. Rates cut across the board, €20bn expansion, Investment grade non-bank corp debt now eligible and four new TLTROs, essentially meaning Banks paid to borrow….Draghi triggered the Sell off by saying he doesn’t anticipate more rate cuts….Peak Policy? Eminis -10bps vs Most Short -80bps; volumes poor on the way up. Eurostoxx fell nearly 6% and EUR rallied from 1.085-1.12. DXY -1% crashing through 200dma, testing 96. Rates rallied, 10yr testing 1.94%; Banks finally rallied in last hour; BKX +30bps. Utils hold onto gains despite, market continues to hide in defensive plays; JNJ/KO/MO/PM/SYY all making new highs. Oil see 3% swing, hit on reports no OPEC production freeze meeting this month but bounced over the afternoon. GULFPORT held onto deal price, raising $370m. Gold outperformed as you would expect; GDX +4.5%. On Earnings; DOLLAR GENERAL +11%, BOX +1%, SQUARE -6%, CANADIAN SOLAR -13%. We continue to focus on the implication of ZTE (4th day of suspention), we initiate Sell on CISCO -80b[s, concerns over China growth and orders in the current quarter; MELLANOX -30bps. Also on today’s note; FACEBOOK (Buy) -20bps new research suggest Mobile advertising in UK will overtake TV this year; INTERPUBLIC (Buy) -70bps outperforming organic growth; LINKEDIN (Short) -2.6% stock compensation growing over 2x that of Revs. No major earnings expected tonight or tomorrow. BOJ rates Monday night and Fed on Wednesday (WIRP 2%) both expected to have little market impact. Earnings expected from ORACLE (QCC), FEDEX (logistics disruption) and ADOBE.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +4.5%, Materials +3.3%, Regional Banks +90bps, Semis +90bps, Telco +50bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Biotech -80bps, Chems -1%, IT Security -1.2%, Refiners -1.3%, Solar -1.6%

COMMODS: Nat Gas +2.7%, Wheat +1.5%, Silver +1.1%, Gold +80bps, Copper -50bps, WTI -1.2%, Ally -1.4%, Gasoline -1.9%

ECO: Initial Jobless 259k, est 275k

AFTER-HRS NEWS/MOVES:

EL POLLO LOCO -7.5% q4 1c eps beat, revs small miss, comps beat, fy eps view midpoint below est
BOJANGLES +6.3% q4 eps beat, revs inline, adj ebitda beats
BONANZA CREEK -85bps draws down $209mm from credit facility
ULTA SALONS +10.2% q4 eps/revs beat, $200mm accelerated b/b, q1 eps guide better
VERIFONE +15bps q1 eps/revs beat, fy guide beats
ZUMIEZ -6.3% q4 eps/revs beat prior guide, q1 guidance miss
AUTOBYTEL +4% q4 eps beats, revs inline

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
BOX +1.7% q4 loss less than est, revs beat, strong billings beat
SQUARE -6.1% q4 revs beat, midpoint of fy ebitda view above est, reverses lower on rev concernsCBS -60bps positive comments @ Barron’s
INTEL +1.3% #s cut @ Pacific Crest
LIONSGATE +2.8% named a best pick @ Bernstein
APPLE +5bps positive comments on orders @ Credit Suisse

CONSUMER
DOLLAR GENERAL +10.7% q4 eps/comps beat, boosts div,
VAIL RESORTS -4% q3 eps/revs beat, fy ebitda guide midpoint better than est
CHRISTOPHER & BANKS +41.3% q4 loss wider than est, revs/comps better, q1 rev guide better
SALLY BEAUTY +25bps d/g @ Piper
PARTY CITY +14.2% q4 eps beat, revs miss, fy revs guide light
AMERICAN EAGLE +1.5% CFO retiring
CAPITAL GOODS
UNITED TECHNOLOGIES -45bps reaffirms at investor day
CANADIAN SOLAR -13.2% q4 eps/revs beat, fy revs seen below est

HEALTHCARE
SPECTRUM PHARMA +9.2% q4 loss less than est, revs beat

FINANCIALS
RBS -2.9% d/g @ Bernstein

MATERIALS
VALE -1.3% d/g @ Stifel
SHERWIN-WILLIAMS +1.6% #s raised above est @ Morgan Stanley

ENERGY
ANTERO RESOURCES -60bps d/g @ Baird
COLUMBIA PIPELINE GROUP +8.5% said in t/o talks w TRANSCANADA -3.9% , later reports talks stalled
WILLIAMS COS -11.5% , ENERGY TRANSFER EQUITY -4.9% both down as the latter completes private offering

SERVICES
FACTSET -4.4% d/g to sell @ UBS

TRANSPORTATION
FEDEX -25bps positive valuation comments @ UBS

Have a good evening.