Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -1.78% (2005.5), D -2.10% (17128.5), N -1.81% (4514.8), CL1 -1.09% (34.54), Copper +3.35% (211.15), Gold +1.47% (1066.25) 10YrYld -0.02 (2.1970), DXY -0.58% (98.70), Vix +7.44% (20.40).

The S&P closed inline with the European close staying in a less than 50bps trading range all afternoon. Volume takes a dive off 14% to 7.4bln shares, more than 1bln below avg. Dollars traded off 13% to $240bln, $50bln below avg. 2:1 up volume over down volume.

Calm before the storm? First day for a while without a double digit move in the S&P! Most Short +70bps vs Eminis +40bps. DXY testing 200dma again as EUR popped back above 1.10; big focus on the ECB tomorrow, Draghi speaking 8:30am. New Zealand cut rates 25bps, Canada unch. US Rates bouncing, 10yr 1.89%, banks not following; BKX -40bps. Oil higher despite API/DOE Inventory build, Copper also higher but Gold lagging. XLE +1.6%, XME +1.3%, GDX +50bps. No major earnings today; teen retailer EXPRESS +3.3% guides to upper end. Defensive plays continue to make new highs; S5CONS, XLU, VZ etc…attractive yields and value profiles. Would also highlight KROGER +2.1%, SYMANTEC +4% and WALMART unch. We continue to think about the ripple effects from ZTE, several names at risk alongside the usual big China proxies; MELLANOX -1% stands out, especially given its outperformance and no Sell ratings. Full thoughts on today’s note. AMAZON -10bps signs pact with AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES +17%, will lease 20 Boeing jets to boost domestic delivery capabilities, also granted warrants to build 19.9% stake over next 5 years; UPS. Biotech weak following proposal to change Medicare Plan B payment model, would expect pressure to remain on the space throughout election process. No major earnings tomorrow; American Express and United Tech hosting investor days.

OUTPERFORMERS: Refiners +3.4%, Railroads +1.4%, Software +1.3%, Materials +1.3%, Homebuilders +1.2%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Biotech -1.2%, Inv Banks -1%, Telco -30bps, Drillers -20bps, Pharma unch

COMMODS: WTI +4.7%, Nickel +3.5%, Nat Gas +2.6%, Ally +1%, Copper +80bps, Silver -40bps, Gold -70bps, Sugar -1.5%

ECO: Wholesale Inv MoM +0.3%, est -0.2%.

AFTER-HRS NEWS/MOVES:

BOX +15.2% q4 loss less than est, revs beat, strong billings beat
SPECTRUM PHARMA +2.8% q4 loss less than est, revs beat
SQUARE +3.9% q4 revs beat, midpoint of fy ebitda view above est
AMERICAN EAGLE -1.8% CFO retiring

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
OCLARO -1% reit q3 view in presentation
YELP -3%, GROUPON -10.3% both d/g’d to sell @ UBS
FIREEYE +1.1% u/g @ Piper

HEALTHCARE
VALEANT +5.9% names 3 new directors, Ackman raises possible sell of Bausch & Lomb
PFIZER +1.3% commences $5bln accelerated b/b
TEVA +3% remains preferred name @ Citi

CAPITAL GOODS
AEROVIRONMENT +6.1% q3 #s beat, boosts margin view
CRANE -90bps d/g @ Seaport Global

CONSUMER
DARDEN +3.6% q3 prelim #s better than est
ROSS STORES -1.4% d/g off conviction list @ Goldman
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL -3.4% another store closure
AMPLIFY SNACK BRANDS -4.4% q4 beats, fy view better than est
BLUE BUFFALO +22.6% q4 eps/revs beat
EXPRESS +3.3% q4 beats, fy midpoint of view above est
VERA BRADLEY +8.2% q4 comps beat, fy view inline
ULTA BEAUTY -2.4% positive comments @ Baird & @ ITG
GROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE +4.1% u/g @ Evercore ISI
HOVNANIAN -15.9% q1 miss, reaffirms
NIKE -2.5% cautious comments @ Goldman

SERVICES
KORN/FERRY +2.4% q3 beats est, q4 view inline
TRANSUNION -2.6% prices $390mm secondary

ENERGY
VANGUARD NATURAL RESOURCES +8.9% d/g to sell @ UBS
CHEVRON +4.6% vows to defend dividend, u/g @ Wolfe Research

MATERIALS
BHP BILLITON +1.3% d/g @ Jefferies
GLOBAL BRASS & COPPPER +7.9% q4 miss but outlook better

TRANSPORTATION
FEDEX -40bps p/t cut @ Citi
SWIFT +5.1% positive comments @ Baird

Have a good evening.