Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.09% (2001.8), D +0.40% (17074.0), N -0.59% (4303.3), CL1 +5.68% (37.96), Copper +0.07% (227.60), Gold +0.65% (1267.41) 10YrYld +0.03 (1.9039), DXY -0.26% (97.09), Vix +2.49% (17.28).

The S&P closed up 15bps from the European close to eke out its 5th gain in a row. Volumes dropping 15% from Friday’s job data day to 8.9bln shares, basically back to avg. Dollars traded off 12% to $275bln, about 8% below avg. Despite the meandering tape, still 70% of volume to the upside.

More of the same today; Shorts / Oil proxies outperforming, zerohedge calling it the biggest short squeeze of all time. Eminis +30bps vs Most Short +2%; Nasdaq underperforming yet again, funding the shorts? DXY reversed early gains, retesting Friday’s low. Rates continue to push higher but Banks (-40bps) fail to make it 5 consecutive up days (last seen in July). Oil testing $38, with $40 the next key level on the upside; CHEVRON +3% host analyst meeting tomorrow morning. Nearly $10bn raised through secondary’s this year, expect to see plenty more on this rally (CHK/CLR/WLL); Saipem announced 700m share sale. CLIFF NATURAL +19% most levered to Iron Ore (+19%) move; Steels still going. XME 77% off the lows, 4.5x adv. China’s NPC details on GDP, monetary & fiscal policy seen as positive (GM/NKE/SBUX/YUM). No major earnings and very little news out there again. Well owned names coming for sale, possible a source of funds for commod shorts; FACEBOOK -2.5% (Buy), MICROSOFT -2% (QCC), NIKE -3% (QCC), NETFLIX -6% (Short, ITG -ve). No major M&A; few unconfirmed rumors; AMERICAN EXPRESS +1.2%, DUPONT +2.4%, MAXIM -1.2%; and Burberry (aviate Buy) pink sheet popped 10% following FT tweet.

OUTPERFORMERS: Materials +6%, Gold +3.5%, Oil Services +3%, Biotech +2.5%, Solar +2.3%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Banks -40bps, Staples -60bps, Defense -70bps, Cons Apparel -1.2%, Software -1.3%

COMMODS: WTI +5.6%, Gasoline +4.5%, Nat Gas +1.6%, Ally +80bps, Copper +20bps, Gold -20bps, Silver -30bps, Sugar -1.2%

ECO: Labor Market Conditions -2.4, est +1.0.

AFTER-HRS NEWS/MOVES:

UBRAN OUTFITTERS +5.7% q4 beats street
SHAKE SHACK -7.6% q4 eps/revs just beat, only reits outlook

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
STRATASYS +65bps d/g @ JPMorgan
YAHOO +30bps Starwood said to push for board control
APPLE -1.1% p/t cut @ Pacific Crest, reit conviction buy @ Goldman
SPLUNK +95bps positive comments @ Oppenheimer
MICRON -2.5% d/g @ Nomura
LINKEDIN -3.8% p/t lowered Canaccord
CREE -9% more restructuring seen @ Canaccord
MARVEL +4.3% said to be open to sale per press
INTEL +1% p/t cut @ BofA/Merrill
AMC NETWORKS +2.7% $500mm b/b
LATTICE SEMI +1% CFO resigns
NETFLIX -6% neg comments @ ITG
FACEBOOK -2.5% F.A.N.G. sell off

CONSUMER
MICHAELS -2% d/g @ Morgan Stanley
PIER ONE IMPORTS +29.2% prelim q4 comps beat
DUNKIN’ BRANDS -2.4% d/g @ Guggenheim, cautious comments in Barron’s
VINCE +8.8% announces prelim #s
KRAFT HEINZ -90bps p/t cut @ Susquehanna
SHAKE SHACK +60bps negative valuation comments in Wall St Journal
WYNN -1.7% u/g @ UBS though slow March start seen @ Bernstein
REYNOLDS AMERICAN +5bps weekend talk of BATS interest per UK press later refuted
WHOLE FOODS +3.4% runs through 200dma

HEALTHCARE
CARDINAL HEALTH +75bps u/g to conviction buy @ Goldman
BIOMARIN +1.8% u/g to conviction buy @ Goldman
MYLAN +3% positive comments w/ CEO interview in Barron’s
VALEANT +7.1% announces earnings date
CELLDEX -53.7% poor trial data

CAPITAL GOODS
INGERSOLL-RAND +1.5% u/g @ Nomura
UNITED RENTALS +4.1% added to US focus list @ Citi

FINANCIALS/REAL ESTATE
GENERAL GROWTH -25bps u/g @ Evercore ISI
AVALONBAY +10bps d/g @ BMO
AMERICAN EXPRESS +1.2% makes session high on press tweet on pressure for sale/ceo change

ENERGY
HELMERICH & PAYNE +1.6% / NOBLE CORP +3% both d/g’d @ Stephens

MATERIALS
RANDGOLD +25bps d/g @ Morgan Stanley
MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS +4.6% postive CEO interview in Barron’s
GREIF +6.3% eps beats though revs trail
ARCELORMITTAL +6% u/g @ Jefferies
DUPONT +2.4% report BASF weighing counterbid

SERVICES
COMSCORE -33.6% 10-K delay

TRANSPORTATION
CH ROBINSON -1.5% d/g @ BMO

UTILITIES
PECO -1% / EXCELON +1.7% new merger terms announced

Have a good evening