Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.33% (2000.0), D +0.37% (17006.8), N +0.07% (4329.0), CL1 +4.77% (36.21), Copper +2.35% (226.05), Gold -0.37% (1259.57) 10YrYld +0.04 (1.8741), DXY -0.38% (97.22), Vix +1.08% (16.87).

The S&P closed down 20bps from the European close ending the day off afternoon highs and about in the middle of the day’s range. Volumes finally up w/ the jobs # behind us now trading close 20% above yesterday to 10.3bln shares printing above the 20 day avg of 8.7bln. Dollars traded up a little less than 15% to $309bln just over avg of $300bln. A touch less than 75% of the volume printing to the upside.

Painful unwind continued over the morning but ran out of steam over the afternoon. Most Short +1.5% vs Eminis +20bps. S&P +2.7% this week. DXY -35bps, testing 200dma despite payrolls beat, hourly earnings light. Rates higher (10yr testing 1.9%) and continues to support the Banks rally; BKX +80bps, KRE +1.2%. Oil +10% this week, testing $36 taking all the usual proxies higher, Rigs -8; another big move in Brazil; IBOV +18% this week, BRL testing 200dma. SEADRILL +120% on bailout spec. Copper +6% on the week, approaching 200dma, New highs Gold; GDX -60bps, XME +1.1%. Steel squeeze takes US STEEL +56% this week. On Earnings; HP ENTERPRISE +14% (upgrades post earnings, all segments solid), BROADCOM +6% (Beat & Raise a little unexpected, +ve ARM -1.2%), SMITH & WESSON +7% (another Beat & Raise), AMBARELLA -9% (weak guide), H&R BLOCK -16% (downgrades post weak earnings). New highs in Tobaccos (MO/PM/RAI) and AT&T (Technical Buy). Samsonite confirms TUMI +1.3% acquisition, $26.75/share, $1.8bn. AMC ENTERTAINMENT +5% buying CARMIKE CINEMAS +17% for $30/share cash, $1.1bn. Very little going on outside of this and not a lot going on in terms of Earnings and Eco next week; ECB on Thursday the highlight.

OUTPERFORMERS: Drillers +10%, Oil Services +3%, Tech Hardware +1.2%, Regional Banks +1.2%, Utils +1.2%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Homebuilders -1%, Airlines -60bps, Biotech -40bps, Pharma -30bps, Teclo -20bps

ECO: NFP 242k, est 195k (last month +21k). Ave Hourly YoY 2.2%, est 2.5%.

COMODS: Nickel +3.8%, WTI +3.7%, Silver +2.7%, Copper +2.4%, Nat Gas +1.9%, Ally +80bps, Gold +50bps, OJ -1.4%

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Drillers +28%, Materials +18%, Oil Services +13%, Regional Banks +7%, Autos +6%

WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMERS: Pharma +30bps, Defense +1%, Biotech +1.1%, Staple +1.7%, Telcos +1.8%


DUPONT +7% BASF said to be considering bid


NIMBLE STORAGE -10.8% q4 inline, q1 guide below est
AMBARELLA -8.9% q4 beats but q1 revs seen below street
BROADCOM +6.4% q1 eps beat, revs inline, positive outlook
HEWLETT PACKARD ENTERPRISES +13.5% q1 eps, revs small beats, sees fy better than est
SBA COMMUNICATIONS -25bps d/g @ Wells Fargo
CARMIKE CINEMAS +16.5% to be acq’d by AMC ENTERTAINMENT +5.1% for $1.1bln
QUALCOMM +50bps d/g @ Oppenheimer
ARM HLDGS -1.2% d/g @ Stifel

SMITH & WESSON +6.5% q3 eps/revs beat prev guide, fy view ahead of street
GAP STORES +2.6% Feb comps down just less than est
PLANET FITNESS +5.4% q4 beats, fy view better than est
DARDEN +15bps Starboard sells 15% of stake
BIG LOTS +2.4%
PAPA JOHN’S -2.5% d/g @ KeyBanc
CST BRANDS +14.6% exploring strategic alternatives
CAL-MAINE FOODS -8.9% d/g @ BB&T

MARSH & MCLENNAN +45bps u/g to conviction buy @ Goldman
XL GROUP -1.5% d/g off conviction list @ Goldman
BARCLAYS +3.1% d/g @ Deutsche
GOLDMAN SACHS +1%, BANK OF AMERICA +30bps both cutting trading jobs

COOPER COS +5.3% q1 eps, revs beat, fy view beats

MONSANTO +1.1% d/g to sell @ Goldman
BHP BILLITON +7.1% credit d/g @ Moody’s

FASTENAL Feb sales -1.7%

SEADRILL +121.1% bailout talk
TRANSOCEAN +17.4% / NOBLE +22.6% offshore names rally

Have a great weekend