Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.35% (1993.4), D +0.26% (16943.9), N -0.20% (4325.9), CL1 +0.09% (34.68), Copper +1.38% (221.10), Gold +1.88% (1263.30) 10YrYld -0.01 (1.8337), DXY -0.66% (97.56), Vix -2.17% (16.71).

The S&P closed up 80bps from the European close to again move to session highs at the end of the day after an otherwise lackluster session. Volumes still below the 20dma at 8.7bln shares vs avg of 8.8. Dollars traded flat at $270bln, $30bln below avg. About 80% of volume to the upside.

Another tough session with Most Short / Commod proxies leading and higher quality lagging, low volatility again. Most Short +2.4% (7th consecutive gain) vs Eminis +30bps (testing 100dma, 10% off Feb lows). Nasdaq lagging. DXY breaks below 50/100dma; EUR 1.0963. AUD breaks 200dma and RR suggesting close to change of trend. Rates lower, 2/10 continues to trend lower; interesting to see Banks post 3rd consecutive rise, BKX +1.2%, KRE +1.9%. Gold breaking to new closing high and Copper makes 5th straight gain. GDX +4% / XME +2.5%; Steel continues to lead, US STEEL +9%. Oil struggled to hold rally to $35 but all proxies outperforming; IBOV +5.5% enters bull market, BRL fallen 5% this week. Nat Gas proxies higher despite new low in underlying; SWN +18%. ALCOA -1.5% lagging on dgrade. On Earnings; JOY GLOBAL +21% (bigger loss and weakening markets but big short interest), COSTCO -1% (comps light), BURLINGTON -3% (guides EPS to lower end), HERBALIFE -7% (overstates membership growth), KROGER -7% (Buy, weakness an op, conservative guide), CIENA -18% (weak Rev guide, reiterate Sell ERICSSON). KR/CIEN on todays note. In M&A, Samsonite said to be near deal to buy TUMI +30%; comes at an interesting time when –ves in the space are becoming harder to identify. Focus on Nonfarm tomorrow morning; earnings and macro very light next week; ECB Thursday, will Draghi be the catalyst for the next move lower?

OUTPERFORMERS: Drillers +7.1%, Gold Miners 4%, Oil Services +3.7%, Airlines +2.8%, Materials +2.5%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Biotech -1.5%, Pharma -70bps, Food/Staples -50bps, Solar -50bps, Software -40bps

COMMODS: Nickel +3.2%, Coffee +2.1%, Gold +1.5%, Silver +1%, WTI -30bps, Ally -80bps, OJ -1.6%, Nat Gas -2%

ECO: Services PMI 49.7, est 50.0. Comp 50.0, prev 50.1. ISM Non-Man 53.4, est 53.1. Factory Orders 1.6%, est 2.1%. Durable Goods 4.7%

AFTER-HRS NEWS/MOVES:

NIMBLE STORAGE -11.5% q4 inline, q1 guide below est
PLANET FITNESS +2.6% q4 beats, fy view better than est
AMBARELLA -5.7% q4 beats but q1 revs seen below street
BROADCOM +7% q1 eps beat, revs inline, positive outlook
HEWLETT PACKARD ENTERPRISES +5.8% q1 eps, revs small beats, sees fy better than est
COOPER COS +4.5% q1 eps, revs beat, fy view beats
SMITH & WESSON halted: q3 eps/revs beat prev guide, fy view ahead of street
GAP STORES Feb comps down just less than est
H&R BLOCK -4.6% q3 loss wider than est, revs miss

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
STRATASYS +17.4% q4 loss less than est, revs beat, guidance better
SINA -1.7% q4 eps inline, revs beat, fy revs seen below est
CIENA -18% q1 eps beat, revs small miss, q2 revs guide midpoint below est
INTEL +15bps u/g @ Baird
DISNEY +1.9% holds analyst day, u/g @ Piper Jaffray
YAHOO -10bps to meet next week with Starboard Value
GROUPON +4.3% sued by IBM for patent infringement
SALESFORCE.COM +50bps positive comments @ Pacific Crest

CONSUMER
COSTCO -80bps q2 eps/revs miss, Feb comps flat vs est for small gain
HERBALIFE -7% overstated member growth
BUFFALAO WILD WINGS +2.1% u/g @ Wedbush
L BRANDS -55bps Feb sales up inline w/ est
BURLINGTON STORES -2.8% q4 numbers miss
NOODLES -8.7% d/g @ Piper Jaffray
POTBELLY +60bps u/g @ Piper Jaffray
SKULCANDY +3.4% q4 eps miss, revs touch light, guidance below est
AMERICAN EAGLE -2.9% q4 eps inline, q1 view better than est
KROGER -7% rare qtrly miss
TUMI +30.2% said near deal to be acq’d by Samsonite
RITE AID unch’d: Feb comps fall
BARNES & NOBLE +6.9% posts q3 profit
PANERA +2.1% positive comments @ Cleveland Research

HEALTHCARE
VALEANT -3.8% Chairman resigns
BIOMARIN +2.4% positive drug data

CAPITAL GOODS
JOY GLOBAL +20.8% q1 loss wider than est, revs beat
EMBRAER -11.9% q4 revs weak, poor outlook
SOLARCITY +15.6% speculation Musk may take private
TEREX -2.3% talk no bid coming from Zoomlion

FINANCIAL
WESTERN UNION +3.4% u/g @ SunTrust

HEALTHCARE
SEQUENOM +1.4% u/g from sell @ Ladenburg

ENERGY
TESORO +4.6%, VALERO +2.8% u/g @ BofA/Merrill
MARATHON PETROLEUM +7.5% u/g @ BofA/Merrill

MATERIALS
SHERWIN-WILLIAMS -60bps u/g @ Citi
ALCOA -1.6% d/g @ BofA/Merrill
POTASH +2.3% seen as t/o candidate @ CLSA
US STEEL +8.8% tariff rally continues

Have a good evening.