Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.41% (1986.5), D +0.20% (16899.3), N +0.02% (4334.4), CL1 +1.08% (34.77), Copper +2.14% (219.15), Gold +0.70% (1240.73) 10YrYld +0.01 (1.8354), DXY -0.20% (98.16), Vix -4.52% (16.90).

The S&P closed up 50bps from the European close to surge in the last half hour to the highs of the day. Volumes continue to taper off 8% to 8.2bln shares vs 8.8bln avg. Dollars traded off almost 15% down to $266bln vs $310bln avg. Better than 80% of volume to the upside.

Markets close higher again, big move in Most Short +3.2% vs Eminis +30bps; different tape to yesterday but encouraging to see the Banks higher. DXY -20bps drifted over the afternoon, GBP 1.408; ADP better, no stand outs from Beige Book. Rates holding the rally, 10yr 1.835%; BKX +1.8%. Focus turning to ECB next week. Oil remains above 50dma despite huge inventory build, 5% intraday swing. Copper posts new high for the year and Gold heading back to highs. Materials ETF (XME) +7.7% fast approaching 200dma; shorts being tested in Steels following favorable tariff decision; US STEEL +24% (heard borrow v difficult). ALCOA (Buy) +6% testing 200dma for first time in over a year. Another deal in Energy as WEATHERFORD +12% priced 100m shares at $5.65, it briefly hit that level premarket before rallying 23%, 180m shares trading. 10th major deal in the space this year, nearly $10bn raised, no doubt more to come. EXXON +1.8% analyst meeting today, cut Capex 25% not a huge surprise, reaffirms plan to continue raising Div; our preferred name for exposure in the space given balance sheet. On Earnings; ROSS STORES +2.7% (QCC, new all time highs), ABERCROMBIE +4.4% (no disaster, RR suggesting 20% upside on the chart), ASCENA RETAIL -1.7% (weak guide), BROWN FOREMAN -1.5% (QCC, FX headwinds ongoing), MONSANTO -8% (cuts guidance, headwinds continue to increase, “ship has sailed” on SYNGENTA). Telco remains a good place to hide in this markets with VERIZON +1.3% and AT&T (Technical Buy) +80bps making new all time highs. And, in the Staple J&J -20bps (QCC, Technical Buy) and P&G +1.6% (Technical Buy) charts looking ready to do the same. Looking into tomorrow; Earnings expected from BURL, CIEN, COST, HPE, JOY and KROGER (buy); Services/Comp PMI, ISM Non-Man, Factory Orders, Durable Goods.

OUTPERFORMERS: Materials +7.7%, Drillers +6.5%, Explorers +5.9%, Solar +2.8%, Gold Miners +2.6%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Chems -90bps, Media -30bps, Transports -15bps, Cons Disc -10bps, Industrials +10bps

COMMODS: Copper +2.4%, Sugar +1.8%, Silver +1.8%, Ally +1%, Gold +90bps, WTI +70bps, OJ -70bps, Nat Gas -4.1%

ECO: ADP Employment 214k, est 190k.

AFTER-HRS NEWS/MOVES:

AMERICAN EAGLE +2% q4 eps inline, q1 view better than est

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
CHECKPOINT SYSTEMS +29.3% to be acq’d for $443mm
MERCADOLIBRE +90bps u/g @ HSBC
PEARSON -90bps d/g to sell @ Goldman
ZYNGA +4.2% names new CEO
BAZAARVOICE +12.1% q3 profit vs est for loss, revs touch better
VEEVA +2.7% q4 eps/revs beat, eps guidance touch weak
TIVO -6.4% q4 adj ebitda inline, revs touch light, sees fy adj ebitda better than estavb
TIME WARNER CABLE -55bps d/g @ Wunderlich
SQUARE +11.7% positive comments @ ITG

CAPITAL GOODS
ALLISON TRANSMISSION +3.8% u/g @ BofA/Merrill
HONEYWELL +60bps reit forecast in presentation
MIDDLEBY +4% q4 eps/revs light

CONSUMER
CHUY’S +3.5% q4 eps beat, revs touch better
BIG 5 SPORTING GOODS -10.4% q4 eps touch better than prev guide, q1 eps guide light of est
COTT -2.4% 11.1mm share secondary
ASCENA RETAIL -1.7% q2 eps middle of range of prior guide, revs touch light, comps miss, q3 eps seen below est
BOB EVANS +5.9% q3 eps beats, revs touh better, fy eps guide inline to better than est
DICK’S SPORTING GOODS +20bps cautious comments @ Oppenheimer
ABERCROMBIE & FITCH +3.7% q4 eps beats, revs inline
BROWN-FORMAN -1.5% q3 eps inline, revs just miss, fy growth seen bit below est
PANERA BREAD -5bps positive comments @ Baird
CHIPOTLE +3.1% positive comments @ CLSA

FINANCIALS/REAL ESTATE
AVALONBAY +50bps q4 ffo just light, guidance better than est
OCWEN +7.6% p/t cut @ BofA/Merrill

HEALTHCARE
VALEANT +3.1% d/g @ Canaccord
MEDTRONIC +55bps positive comments @ Deutsche
AERIE PHARMA +5.2% q4 beats
ENDO PHARMA +3.9% p/t cut @ Northland

ENERGY
ANADARKO +6.3% named a top pick @ Macquarie
BILL BARRETT +28.3% q4 eps profit beats est of loss
EXCO RESOURCES +17.9% q4 loss not as wide as est
WEATHERFORD +11.5% 80mm share secondary
EXXON MOBIL +1.8% analyst day, sees fy16 capex down 25%

MATERIALS
JOY GLOBAL -30bps d/g to sell @ Axiom
SQM -1% q4 net income misses
DARLING +25.9% q4 revs miss but high on outlook
SYNGENTA -25bps bounces off lows on reports DuPont has considered buying all of it
MONSANTO -7.8% reduces fy view
ALCOA +5.6% rallies despite p/t cut @ Cowen

UTILITIES
DUKE ENERGY +40bps 9.25mm secondary

TRANSPORTATION
CSX -40bps reports of turning down CANADIAN PACIFIC -2.5% overture
SWIFT TRANSPORTATION -7.4% lrg block trade