Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

The S&P closed up 90bps from the European close ending the day squarely at session highs. Volumes still on the lighter side barely up vs yesterday at 8.6bln shares vs avg of 8.8bln. Dollars traded up small as well to $300bln vs $310bln avg. Just over 3/4 of volume printing to the upside today.

Super Tuesday indeed…..Markets close at session highs, arguable the most positive price action we’ve seen all year. Eminis +2.4% vs Most Short +1%. ISM Man ahead but remains in contraction for 5th straight month, China PMI below for 7th straight month. FXI, ASHR. DXY upside momentum continues; EUR 1.0869, JPY 113.86. Decent reversal in rates and driving the banks higher (BKX +4.5%); saw Buyers across the space; CITI +6%. HYG +1.6%/JNK +1.8% puts in best rally of the year. Oil back above 50dma, chart actually looks quite interesting but that could all change very quickly post API tonight and DOE tomorrow. EXXON +1.5% analyst meeting 9am tomorrow. No surprise to see Gold proxies underperform; GDX -4%; and Utils, XLU -50bps. On Earnings; WORKDAY +17% (big relief no warning, but we remain Sellers given high valuation and slowing sub growth, 11% SI), HERTZ +13% (nothing great but 9% SI), KATE SPADE +12% (weak guide but seems market already there, 10% SI), JD.COM +3% (rev guide ahead), DOLLAR TREE +2% (QCC, weak guide but rollout opportunity remains intact). Autos in focus today with Feb Sales and Geneva Motor Show; the overall number actually came in a little light but plenty of +ves under the hood, mass market outperforming the premium end; FIAT CHYSLER +7%, FORD +4%. TESLA -3% notable underperformer, Citron reiterate cautious stance, $100pt. Macau GCR trends for Feb showed lowest –ve reading for 21m, we believe significant change is being confirmed; MGM +5% remains our preferred pick. APPLE (Technical Sell) +4% back above $100 and above 50dma for first time this year; supply chain leading SOX higher, testing 100dma. No major M&A today, UTD TECH -2% as HONEYWELL +4% walks away. Macro remains in focus for the rest of the week with ADP, Beige Book, ISM Non-Man, Factory Orders, Durable Goods and Nonfarm Friday.

OUTPERFORMERS: Banks +4.5%, Biotech +4.3%, Autos +3.2%, Tech Hardware +3.2%, Drillers +3.1%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -4.2%, Solar -60bps, Utils -50bps, Staples +1%, Telco +1.4%

ECO: Markit Man PMI 51.3, est 51.2. ISM Man 49.5, est 48.5. Construction Spending 1.5%, est 0.3%. Domestic Vehicle Sales 13.74m, est 13.83m. Total Vehicle Sales 17.54m, est 17.60m.

COMMODS: WTI +1.9%, Nickel +1.9%, Nat Gas +1.5%, Copper +50bps, Gold +6bps, Ally -10bps, Silver -40bps, Wheat -1.5%


CHUY’S +7% Q4 ahead and raised to upper end
ROSS STORES -2% cuts FY EPS/Comp guidance
VEEVA SYSTEMS -3% Q1 EPS/Rev guide to lower end
WEATHERFORD -5% placing 80m shares, MS/JPM running book

DISNEY +2.2% removed from US1 List @ BofA/Merrill
JD.COM +3.1% q4 loss but revs beat, q1 revs seen inline
WORKDAY +18.7% q4 loss less than est, revs small beat, q1 rev guide below est
TUBEMOGUL -2.2% q4 adj ebitda/revs beat, fy revs guide better than est
LINEAR TECHNOLOGY -2.7% d/g @ BofA/Merrill

DOLLAR TREE +2.2% q4 revs miss, fy view below est
KATE SPADE +11% q4 eps inline, revs list, fy seen below street
LAS VEGAS SANDS +5% / WYNN +2.5% better Macau #s
AUTOZONE +2.1% q2 eps beat, revs inline
FORD +4.6% Feb US sales +20.4% vs 11.6% est
FIAT CHRYSLER +7.2% Feb US sales +11.8% vs 10.2% est
GENERAL MOTORS +1.9% Feb US sales (1.5%) vs 5% est
HONDA +3.9% Feb US Sales +12.8% vs 8.6% est
TOYOTA +2.2% Feb US Sales +4.1% vs 4.9% est
DOMINO’S PIZZA +80bps d/g off conviction list @ Goldman
DEL FRISCO’S +6.7% q4 eps inline, revs inline w/ prev guide, sees fy below est
AUTONATION +2.1% added to US1 List @ BofA/Merrill
CROCS -6.6% q4 revs beat but q1 rev view below street
HERTZ +12.2% q4 eps inline, revs light, tweaks fy revs guide lower
DSW -3.3% d/g to sell @ Goldman
SNYDERS-LANCE -6.5% q4 revs miss

CITI +6.2% d/g @ Atlantic Equities
FIRST REPUBLIC +5.6% added to US1 List @ BofA/Merrill
BARCLAYS -5.8% #s miss, cuts dividend
MBIA +7.1% posts q4 profit
ICE -2.7% looking at bid for London Stock Exchange

MEDTRONIC -4.2% q3 eps inline, revs touch light, fy eps midpoint inline
MCKESSON +65bps d/g @ Mizuho
EXPRESS SCRIPTS +1.8% d/g @ Mizuho
PTCT THERAPEUTICS -30.5% q4 wider loss than est, revs touch light
ROCKWELL MEDICAL -34.3% q4 loss vs profit est, revs light
KITE PHARMA +14.5% q4 loss less than est, revs inline, updates fy cash burn
INTREXON +9% q4 loss wider than est, revs touch light

DONALDSON +5.4% q2 eps, revs miss
JINKO SOLAR +1.2% q4 eps/revs beats est
BRIGGS & STRATTON +6.1% u/g @ Raymond James
HONEYWELL +4.5% walks away from further pursuit of UNITED TECHNOLOGIES -1.6%
FIRST SOLAR -4% d/g @ JPMorgan
SUNEDISON -24.2% delaying financial results
ORBITAL ATK -7% q4 beats but fy guide light
SOLAR CITY -2.3% p/t lowered @ Morgan Stanley

HELMRICH & PAYNE +3.4% u/g @ RBC
BONANZA CREEK -43.6% q4 loss wider than est
MARATHON OIL -3.1% 145mm share offering
GULFMARK OFFSHORE +12.5% q4 loss less than est, revs touch better, no longer providing revs guidance
ANTERO RESOURCES -1.7% after-hrs block trade

FREEPORT MCMORAN +1.7% u/g @ BofA/Merrill
RANDGOLD -3.8% d/g @ BofA/Merrill
RIO TINTO +3.3% u/g @ RBC

PEPCO -12.9% new objections to EXELON +90bps deal

Have a good evening.