Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.44% (1929.8), D +0.32% (16485.0), N +0.92% (4200.7), CL1 +1.07% (32.22), Copper +0.50% (211.95), Gold +0.32% (1229.57) 10YrYld +0.03 (1.7484), DXY +0.06% (97.54), Vix -1.24% (20.72).

The S&P closed up 180bps from the European close to end the day just off session highs. Volume up 14% from yesterday to 8.2bln shares though still below avg of 9bln. Dollars traded up 13% to $278bln vs avg of $322bln. Despite the nice rally up volume only 55-45 over down vol for the day.

The bulls sure liked what they saw today as the S&P rises over 2% from mid-morning lows over coming some ominous economic data w/ a weaker, in fact contracting, services pmi and weaker new home sales. Some decent participation in the rally too. Though sparked largely by crude (EIA inventories/draw down figures more bullish than API data last night) more of a cross section of strength today than limited to energy related names and most shorted as we’ve seen in some previous up days. Positive moves not limited to stocks: the 2/10 yield curve closes steeper after initially trading at multi-year lows. The 10yr yield with it’s best move in a weak. DXY settles in about flat though the pound didn’t bounce much at all during the afternoon though the yen did weaken all afternoon back to about flat today vs the dollar. Despite the bounce back financials prob the most notable absentee in the rally with the BKX Index out at highs but still down 85bps on the day, KRE Regionals -70bps. Autos also a laggard. Durable goods out pre-mkt tomorrow should influence the early tone in the US.

OUTPERFORMERS: Refiners +3.8%, Solar +2.6%, Tech Hardware +1.5%, Dept Stores +1.4%, Semis +1.4%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Autos +1.4%, Drillers -1.1%, Asset Mgrs -80bps, Managed Healthcare -60bps, Banks -60bps

COMMODS: Gasoline +5.5%, Heating Oil +3.3%, Lean Hogs +2.2%, Cocoa +1.4%, Crude +1.1%…..Coffee -1.9%, Nickel -1.8%, Aluminum -1.7%, Cotton -1%, Wheat -1%

ECON: Mortgage Applications -4.3%, Markit US Services PMI 49.8 vs 53.5 est, New Home Sales 494k vs 520k est, m/m (9.2%) vs (4.4%) est

AFTER-HRS NEWS/MOVES:

VIPSHOP -9.3% q4 net income below est, revs beat, q1 revs seen below est
TUMI +9% q4 eps/revs beat
SALESFORCE.COM +8.5% q4 eps inline, revs touch better, guidance above est
IMAX -7.2% q4 adj ebitda miss though revs beat
RELYPSA q4 loss worse than est
RESTORA-12.9% TION HARDWARE q4 eps/revs miss
DIAMOND RESORTS +20.4% q4 earnings beat, exploring strategic alternatives
HEWLETT-PACKARD +30bps q1 eps inline, revs touch better, q2 eps view touch light, reaffirms fy
ROCKET FUEL +23% q4 adj ebitda beats, revs better, app’ts new CFO
L BRANDS -3.6% q4 eps beat, revs prev announced, guidance below est
WHITING PETROLEUM +4.8% q4 loss wider than est
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES +50bps q4 loss just more than est
LA QUINTA -3.3% q4 eps beats, revs miss, guidance misses
KINROSS GOLD -5.4% 83.4mm share bought deal

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
ETSY +6.9% q4 revs beat, sees fy revs at high end of range
WEBMD +9.6% q4 eps/revs beat, fy eps seen better than street, revs guide midpoint above est
NEW YORK TIMES -3% q1 adv revs to be below guidance: conf presentation
DREAMWORKS +21.8% q4 eps/revs beat
CAFEPRESS +5% q4 eps/revs beat
REALOGY -3% q4 revs/adj ebitda below est
NETFLIX +2.8% positive comments @ Pacific Crest
MOBILEYE +1.7% reverses early losses
LIONS GATE +8.7% further talk of content deals/investment

CONSUMER
STEVE MADDEN +2.3% q4 inline to fy eps view below est
LOWE’S +1.1% reverses early losses on inline #s
DICK’S SPORTING GOODS +3.9% u/g @ B. Riley
MACY’S +1.3% d/g @ Stifel
PAPA JOHN’S +9.5% q4 eps beats, revs miss, comps positive
POPEYE’S -4.8% q4 inline but fy view below est
AVIS BUDGET -26.5% q4 eps beats, revs miss, fy guide below est
FORD -2.7% p/t cut @ Morgan Stanley, d/g @ Credit Suisse
GENERAL MOTORS -1.8% resumed u/w @ Morgan Stanley
GILDAN ACTIVEWEAR +3.6% q4 eps inline, revs beat
TARGET +4% q4 slight miss but strong online growth and fy eps view better than est
TJX +2.1% q4 eps/revs/comps beat
TUPPERWARE -4.3% to delay 10-K filing on possible material weaknesses
DUNKIN’ BRANDS +4.2% announces menu revamp

HEALTHCARE
HEALTHSOUTH +7.9% q4 adj ebitda/revs beat, raises range of fy guidance
JAZZ PHARMA unch’d: q4 eps inline, revs light, fy guide below est

CAPITAL GOODS
FIRST SOLAR +12.4% q4 eps/revs beat, fy eps midpoint above est
DEERE +2.4% u/g @ Argus

FINANCIALS
VOYA +60bps d/g off conviction list @ Goldman
BLACKHAWK -10.2% q4 inline, q1 eps guided below est
ALLEGHANY +1.7% q4 book value/eps up y/y
STIFEL FINANCIAL -4.8% q4 eps/revs miss
EATON VANCE -2.4% q1 eps/revs below est

MATERIALS
STILLWATER MINING -1.3% d/g @ Goldman

SERVICES
ADVISORY BOARD -27% q4 eps beats/revs miss, fy revs guidance below est
COPART +2.2% q2 eps/revs beat

ENERGY
CHENIERE +10.2% to make first exports
HOLLYFRONTIER +11.3% q4 eps miss but revs handily beat