Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -1.25% (1921.3), D -1.14% (16431.8), N -1.62% (4162.5), CL1 -6.11% (31.35),
Copper -0.71% (210.30), Gold +1.49% (1226.58) 10YrYld -0.03 (1.7174), DXY
+0.10% (97.47), Vix +8.26% (20.98).

The S&P closed down 10bps from the European close ending the day just off session lows. The afternoon was in a tight trading range with 4 small post-Europe rally attempts making subsequently lower highs before making the low of the day in the last hour. Volumes incrementally below yesterday at 7.1bln shares vs 9bln avg. Dollars traded off 4% to $243bln, about $80bln below est. 80% of volume printing to the downside.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +2.3%, Dept Stores +1.1%, Homebuilders +40bps, Food/Staples Retailers +30bps, Packaged Foods +20bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Coal -9.2%, Metals/Mining -8.7%, Explorers -5.5%, Oil Services -4.7%, Drillers -4.5%

COMMODS: Sugar +8.9%, Nickel +2.3%, Aluminum +1.6%, Gold +1.3%, Lean Hogs +1%…..Crude -4.7%, Gasoline -3.6%, Heating Oil -3%, NatGas -2%, Wheat -1.8%

ECON: Case-Shiller US m/m 0.78%, 20-City 182.75 vs 183.07 est, m/m 0.8% vs 0.85% est, Composite y/y 5.74% vs 5.8% est, Consumer Confidence 92.2 vs 97.2 est, Richmond Fed Manf -4 vs +2 est, Existing Home Sales 5.47mm vs 5.33 est, m/m +0.4% vs -2.5% est

Back to the macro dominating the moves today and none of it positive for stocks: Chinese currency, North Korea stoking tensions on the peninsula, skepticism of the Syrian ceasefire plans, and then of course the Saudi oil minister weighing in that freezing certainly does not mean cutting (and Iran of course objects to even that). Add in disappointing consumer confidence data in the US and a negative Richmond Fed print and it was enough for the worst day for the S&P in 10 sessions. Not surprisingly all things energy and commodity related (ex-gold) gave back the most. Joining them were financials in large part on JPMORGAN -4.2% talking more specifically about energy exposure and a -20% y/y start to 2016 for trading revenue. Rates out at the lows today falling below 1.72% on the 10yr. It wasn’t all bad though as more cyclical retail and housing related names joined the usual suspects of gold/yield/defensive sectors at the top today. MACY’S +3% after more than 50% peak to trough drop into the end of last year beats the street and makes a new high for the move, now up more than 20% from December lows. DILLARDS +8.2% also strong in the space on #s. Housing related, HOME DEPOT +1.4% delivers once again on earnings. Wood material maker TREX +9.8% and higher end homebuilder TOLL BROTHERS +3.8% also with positive results. Keeping on eye on the dollar as it continues to sneak higher w/ DXY up another 10bps today making a new high for the move despite the Yen continuing higher to its strongest level since Halloween.

AFTER-HRS NEWS/MOVES:

DREAMWORKS
ETSY +14.3% q4 revs beat, sees fy revs at high end of range
AVIS BUDGET -10.8% q4 eps beats, revs miss, fy guide below est
WEBMD +2.6% q4 eps/revs beat, fy eps seen better than street, revs guide midpoint above est
NEW YORK TIMES -6.8% q1 adv revs to be below guidance: conf presentation
FIRST SOLAR +4.6% q4 eps/revs beat, fy eps midpoint above est
DREAMWORKS +10.5% q4 eps/revs beat

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
TWITTER unch’d: u/g @ Raymond James
LAMAR ADVERTISING -5% q4 adj ebitda just light, revs beat
CHEGG -35% q4 adj ebitda beats, revs miss, guidance poor
SCRIPPS NETWORKS +4% q4 eps/revs beat
MELLANOX -30bps raises q1 revs view above est
FITBIT -20.8% q4 eps beats but guidance poor
VEECO -10.6% q4 eps/revs beat, q1 revs guide light
ANGIE’S LIST -13.1% q4 eps/revs miss
SHUTTERFLY +7.5% filing says has received private equity interest
FRONTIER COMM +12.6% q4 basically inline
VIACOM +40bps says has been approached re: Paramount
WESTERN DIGITAL -7.2% loses Chinese investor, reducing debt, buying SANDISK
ZILLOW +3.9% insider buy

CONSUMER
WOLVERINE WORLD WIDE -4.3% q4 eps beats, revs inline, fy guide below est
VITAMIN SHOPPE -14.1% q4 inline, comps miss
JAKKS PACIFIC -17% q4 loss wider than est, revs beat, q1 guide below est
HOME DEPOT +1.4% q4 eps/revs/comps beat
TOLL BROTHERS +3.8% q1 eps inline, revs beat, narrows fy revs view
JM SMUCKER -2.4% q3 eps beats, revs touch light, fy guide better than est
OFFICE DEPOT -2.5% q4 eps/revs miss
TEXAS ROADHOUSE +12.7% q4 eps/revs beat
NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE +6.3% q4 eps inline, small revs miss
MACY’S +3% q4 eps/revs beat, fy revs guidance better
CRACKER BARREL +4.4% q2 eps inline, small revs miss, guidance better
CHIPOTLE -15bps cut to sell @ Deutsche
DILLARDS +8.2% q4 eps/revs just miss but comps down less than est

FINANCIALS
JPMORGAN CHASE -4.2% discusses energy exp, drop in trading revs at investor day

HEALTHCARE
ICON -45bps q4 eps small beat, revs miss
TENET -1.6% q4 adj ebitda touch light, revs beat, adj ebitda guide below est
ABBVIE -40bps u/g @ Citi
PDL BIOPHARMA -70bps q4 eps/revs beat
VALEANT +4.4% restatement issue not as bad as feared after-hrs yest
ARIAD PHARMA -4.5% q4 loss inline, revs touch better

CAPITAL GOODS
FREIGHTCAR AMERICA -9% q4 eps beats, revs miss
MCDERMOTT +11.8% q4 eps loss less than est, revs miss
NORDSON +7.6% q1 eps/revs beat
FRANKLIN ELECTRIC -65bps q4 eps inline, revs miss
LINCOLN ELECTRIC -5.9% q4 eps/revs miss
UNITED TECHNOLGIES -80bps / HONEYWELL -1.5% United Tech CEO says no deal

MATERIALS
US STEEL -5.2% / ARCELORMITTAL -5.8% d/g @ Cowen
WESTLAKE CHEMICAL -8.9% q4 eps/revs miss
ANGLOGOLD +5.7% u/g from sell @ Citi
HI-CRUSH PARTNERS +6.6% q4 revs beat
FREEPORT MCMORAN -8.7% d/g to sell @ Citi
BHP BILLITON -4.7% 1st half miss, cuts dividend
TREX +9.8% q4 eps/revs beat

ENERGY
CABOT OIL & GAS -10.6% prices 44mm share offering
C&J ENERGY -23.3% q4 loss less than est, revs beat
CARRIZO OIL & GAS -5.2% q4 eps beats, revs inline
SCHLUMBERGER -3.1% sees e&p weaker than prev thought in conf presentation

SERVICES
LEXMARK -4.1% q4 eps beat, revs miss
HEIDRICK & STRUGGLES -1.1% q4 eps miss, revs beat
ECOLAB -7.4% q4 eps miss, q1 guide midpoint below est

TRANSPORTATION
EXPEDITORS -3.3% q4 penny better, revs miss