Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.00% (1917.8), D -0.13% (16392.0), N +0.30% (4164.1), CL1 -3.67% (29.64), Copper +0.41% (208.50), Gold -0.25% (1227.82) 10YrYld +0.01 (1.7466), DXY -0.34% (96.61), Vix -5.13% (20.53).

The S&P closed up 10bps from the European close to go out at the highs of the day’s range but merely unch’d overall. Very narrow trading band all afternoon. Volumes off more 12% to 7.5bln shares, close to 20% below avg – light considering options expiry. Dollars traded off 5% to $262bln, more than 20% below avg. Volume heaviest in morning slide as despite drift higher, down volume 2:1 better than up volume.

Fairly quiet end to the week with all the action early as the mkt pulled itself out of the (small) fire late morning as crude slid again ending the week back under $30. Stocks hold on to most of its early week gains up 2.8% in the short week for their best week in 3 months. Most-shorted up >5% for the week despite being down 1% today. Rates net, net unch’d over the last 4 days even though CPI data today which incrementally beat estimates got them going higher in a kneejerk reaction earlier today. No afternoon rally in the dollar after softening on a stronger Yen this morning: DYX +70bps for the week, Gold +20bps this week but poised to outperform stocks per Riccardo. On earnings: ARISTA +12% (Buy: impressive numbers, strong growth and possible M&A target), APPLIED MATERIAL +9% (Beat and solid guide, supportive ARM +20bps, ASML +3%, LRCX +4%), double whammy in retail with mass-market oriented VF CORP -4% (cuts guidance, warm weather continues to pressure) and luxury focused NORSTROM -6% (cuts guidance, margins hurting, apparel space struggling). Crude influence still felt with TRINITY INDUSTRIES -25% (tanks cars). YAHOO +2.5% starting to take more indepth look at its options, engage w/ interested parties. Looking into next week retail remains in focus with earnings from BBY, FL, GPS, HD, JCP, KSS, L BRANDS, LOW, M, TJX, TGT. Also reporting next week: APA, CRM, HLT, HP, PANW, SPLK, TOL, VC. CS hosts Energy Summit. In Eco, Man PMI, Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, Durable Goods, GDP.

OUTPERFORMERS: Refiners +1.8%, Social Media +90bps, Railroads +85bps, Retail +75bps, Food/Staples Retailers +60bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Coal -6.4%, Metals/Mining -3.2%, Dept Stores -3%, Solar -1.9%, Gold -1.8%

COMMODS: Copper +50bps, Coffee +40bps, OJ +25bps, Gold +20bps, Aluminum -15bps…..Heating Oil -4.3%, Crude -3%, Lean Hogs -2.7%, Nat Gas -2.2%, Cocoa -2.1%

ECO: CPI m/m 0% vs (0.1%) est, ex-food/energy 0.3% vs 0.2% est, CPI y/y 1.4% vs 1.3% est, ex-food/energy 2.2% vs 2.1% est

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
YAHOO +2.1% retains adviors, forms committee to explore options
APPLIED MATERIALS +7.1% q1 penny better, revs small beat, q2 guide better than est
ARISTA NETWORKS +11.8% q4 eps/revs beat, sees upside in q1 revs view
WAGEWORKS +4.5% q4 eps/revs beat
AUTOHOME -1.8% q4 eps/revs beat, q1 revs seen better than est
TRUECAR -12.7% q4 loss wider than est, revs light, revs forecast below street

CONSUMER
NORDSTROM -6.7% q4 eps/revs miss, fy view below est
VF CORP -4.4% q4 eps/revs miss
BOSTON BEER -1.9% q4 eps beats, revs miss, sees fy below est

HEALTHCARE
ALLSCRIPTS -2.2% q4 eps inline, revs light, fy revs range below est

CAPITAL GOODS
SUNEDISON -5.3% d/g @ Credit Suisse
DEERE -4.2% q1 eps beat, revs miss, cuts forecast
FLUOR -2.3% q4 eps/revs miss
BARNES GROUP +7% q4 eps/revs miss, mid point of fy eps view below est
SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS -2.8% d/g @ UBS
TRINITY INDUSTRIES -22.2% q4 eps beat, revs miss, fy guide well light

FINANCIALS/REIT
EQUINIX +3.1% q4 adj ebitda inline, revs beat
FANNIE MAE unch’d: q4 profit better on higher rates

ENERGY
ULTRA PETROLEUM -49.1% d/g to sell @ KLR Grop
CABOT OIL & GAS +1.8% q4 loss narrower than est, revs miss
ATWOOD OCEANICS +1.4% cuts dividend

MATERIALS
YAMANA GOLD +35bps q4 loss just less than est, revs miss
SOUTHWESTERN -16.5% nat gas drop puts debt ratings in doubt

UTILITIES
PSEG +30bps q4 eps small beat, mid of fy guide below est
PEPCO -1% q4 eps beats
CONSOLIDATED EDISON -60bps q4 eps beat sees fy below est