Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.47% (1917.8), D -0.25% (16413.4), N -1.13% (4151.5), CL1 -0.49% (30.51), Copper -0.24% (207.40), Gold +2.10% (1233.98) 10YrYld -0.08 (1.7396), DXY +0.09% (96.87), Vix -3.14% (21.62).

The S&P closed down 5bps from the European close near the lows of the day’s range. Volumes off 10% to 8.4bln, 1bln below avg. Dollars traded off 13.5% to $270bln , $70bln below avg. 60% of volume to the downside.

Markets lower across the board, Nasdaq underperforming; unwind of the unwind? Most Short -1%. DXY +15bps, relatively quiet session in FX world. Rates under pressure again and taking Banks lower (shorts coming back) / Utils higher. Oil holding up on mixed data, DOE build vs API draw. Saw multiple Shorts across Oil proxies. DEVON ENERGY -3% increased secondary 25% on higher demand, raised $1.3bn. Gold back in play; earnings from BARRICK +6% and NEWMONT +1% were light but all about underlying. Elsewhere on earnings; NVIDIA +9% (Buy, Beat & Raise, well positioned), STARWOOD -2%/MARRIOT -3% (disappointing guidance, weak start to the year, merger closing mid yr), WALMART -3% (Buy, initial reaction –ve on weak Rev guide but we like the recovery story), MARATHON OIL -6.5% (cuts capex 50%), MGM -7% (Buy, headline numbers light but good call and Macau improving), CASTLIGHT HEALTH -18% (Neil been bearish since the IPO, has fallen from $42 to $2 in 2 years). With the easing of the recent melt up we remain focused on our QCC Basket; Riccy turned Buyer PHILIP MORRIS +50bps, CLOROX -1.2% +ve presentation at CAGNY and I like the price action in J&J +1.7%, close to breaking out. IT Security under pressure following –ve sell side commentary, APPLE -2% situation not helping either; PALO ALTO -7% report next week. In M&A, INGRAM MICRO +23% being bought by Tianjin Tianhai but we think they will struggle to get past DOJ, nevertheless Tech co’s firmly on the Chinese M&A radar.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +5.8%, Utils +1.7%, Airlines +1.4%, Telco +1.1%, Real Estate +90bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Oil complex -3%, Biotech -2.7%, Banks -1.7%, IT Security -1.4%, Railroads -1.3%

COMMODS: Gold +1.8%, Silver +70bps, WTI +40bps, Ally -10bps, Wheat -1.4%, Sugar -2.1%, Gasoline -3%, Nat Gas -4.4%

ECO: Philly Fed -2.8, est -3.0. Initial Jobless 262k, est 275k


APPLIED MATERIALS +7.1% q1 penny better, revs small beat, q2 guide better than est
ALLSCRIPTS -4.6% q4 eps inline, revs light, fy revs range below est
TRINITY INDUSTRIES -10.1% q4 eps beat, revs miss, fy guide well light
NORDSTROM -6.2% q4 eps/revs miss, fy view below est
ARISTA NETWORKS +5.3% q4 eps/revs beat, sees upside in q1 revs view
WAGEWORKS +3.5% q4 eps/revs beat
EQUINIX -2.2% q4 adj ebitda inline, revs beat


ARRIS INT’L -12% q4 eps beats, revs just miss, guidance light, $300mm b/b
GO DADDY -3.8% q4 beat, mid point revs view just below est
LATTICE SEMI +13.9% q4 loss vs profit est, revs miss, q1 guide light
BROCADE +13.6% q1 beats
NVIDIA +8.6% q4 eps/revs beat, q1 guide above est
INGRAM MICRO +22.6% to be acq’d by Tianjin for $6bln
DISCOVERY -4.1% q4 oibda light, revs slight miss
IBM +5% u/g @ Morgan Stanley
SPLUNK -2.3% p/t cut @ Citi
RED HAT -1.5% u/g @ Citi
NETAPP +1.6% q3 eps beat
DISH -6.3% fy eps miss, revs touch better
STMICROELECTRONICS +3.8% u/g from sell @ UBS
CINCINNATI BELL -10.5% q4 adj ebitda/revs small beat, fy guide touch better
MARVEL -20bps settles patent dispute
T-MOBILE US -60bps q4 dj ebitda/revs beat, fy ebitda guide below est but positive user outlook

WAL-MART -3% q4 eps/revs miss, midpoint of q1/fy view inline w/ street
AARON’S -6.3% q4 eps/revs beat, midpoint of guide below est
DUNKIN’ BRANDS -1% q4 eps beat, revs inline, fy guide inline to slightly below est
SIX FLAGS +2.5% q4 adj ebitda/revs beat
STARWOOD -2.3% q4 adj ebitda beats, revs inline, guidance below est
CABELA’S -3.9% q4 eps/revs ebat
MARRIOTT -2.6% q4 eps penny beat, revs just miss, q1 guide light
JACK IN THE BOX -16.2% q1 miss all around
SODASTREAM +8.5% q4 eps/revs beat
HYATT +2.9% q4 adj ebtida beats
MGM RESORTS -8.3% q4 adj ebitda just below est, revs miss
THE FRESH MARKET -90bps touted as t/o candidate @ RBC
MELCRO CROWN -2.3% q4 adj ebitda beats, revs inline, spec div

CASTLIGHT HEALTH -18% q4 eps/revs small beat, revs view touch light q1 & fy
LABCORP +2.7% q4 eps penny light, revs touch better, fy guide midpoint below est
PERRIGO -10.2% q4 eps/revs miss, midpoint of fy view below est

WABTEC -85bps q4 eps inline, revs small miss, fy view midpoint better than est
VALMONT +1.1% q4 eps/revs miss
SUNPOWER -5.1% q4 net loss though ebitda record/revs beat, ups fy ebitda view
BOEING +1.1% u/g @ Buckingham
CATEPILLAR -1.7% Jan 3-Mos machine sales -15% worldwide

LAREDO PETROLEUM -6.5% d/g @ Stephens
DIAMONDBACK ENERGY -25bps d/g @ Canaccord
DEVON ENERGY -3.1% prices offering
MARATHON OIL -6.5% q4 loss penny wider than est, cuts spending/output view
WILLIAMS +1.5% q4 eps below low end of street
ULTRA PETROLEUM -40.4% q4 loss wider than est, revs miss

CBOE HLDGS unch’d: add’l $100mm b/b

RELIANCE STEEL -1% q4 eps beat, revs miss
BOISE CASCADE -29.4% q4 eps miss, revs beat
ALBEMARLE +3.3% q4 eps/revs beat, fy guide below est
CF INDUSTRIES +8.4% q4 eps/adj ebitda miss, revs beat
BARRICK GOLD +6.2% q4 eps beat, adj ebitda miss
NEWMONT MINING +95bps q4 eps miss, revs inline
VALSPAR -2.6% q1 eps penny beat, revs miss, reit fy view

TRANSOCEAN -5.2% p/t cut @ Citi

ENTERGY +3.4% q4 eps beat, sees upside to est in fy guide range

ON ASSIGNMENT +5.6% q4 eps/revs beat, q1 guide below est
WASTE MANAGEMENT +75bps q4 eps beat, revs miss, fy guide about inline

Have a good evening.