Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +1.65% (1926.8), D +1.59% (16453.8), N +2.31% (4199.1), CL1 +5.92% (30.77), Copper +0.83% (207.35), Gold +0.78% (1209.65) 10YrYld +0.03 (1.8069), DXY +0.02% (96.88), Vix -7.47% (22.31).

The S&P closed up 20bps from the European close holding the day’s gains in a narrow afternoon trading range. Volume up 5% to 9.1bln shares but still below avg. Dollars traded also up 5% to $306bln, $25bln below avg. Just shy of 90% of volume printing to the upside.

The short cover melt up continues, 1st 3 day rally of 2016, FOMC minutes had little effect. Most Short +4% (+10% in 3 days). DXY unch fails at 200dma again. Rate recovery continues (10yr 1.81%) but Banks rally slowed right down; and Homebuilders lagging on weak housings starts. Mexican Peso +3% on unexpected 50bps rate rise. Oil rallies $2 as Iran backs producer freeze but didn’t not offer intentions to do the same. Iran planning to increase production by 500k barrels by 3/20. Energy/Materials leading with SXPP +8%/XME +4%, both now up on the year. Norsk Hydro +12% giving ALCOA +5% some support. KINDER MORGAN +10% getting a Buffett boost. On Earnings; FOSSIL +29% (+ve comp giving some hope following 4yr sell off), GARMIN +17% (didn’t blow up, 10% SI), PRICELINE +11% (Short, solid quarter but headwinds remain), FMC TECH +7% (earnings miss, bouncing off multiyear lows), T-MOBILE +1% (Solid numbers, conservative guide), DR PEPPER -3% (profit taking, FX headwinds ongoing), DEVON ENERGY -4% (cuts div & CapEx), CERNER -5% (guides to lower end). No other news around today, CNBC filled most of their day with APPLE’S +1.5% decision to deny iPhone access, and the usual commentators tried to guess when the rally would end. Comical at times. Real catalysts over the next few weeks G20, ECB, FOMC.

OUTPERFORMERS: Drillers +6.8%, Oil Services +4.4%, Materials +4.2%, Gold Miners +3.7%, Biotech +3%

UNDERPERFORMS: Utils -30bps, Regional Banks unch, Telco +50bps, Homebuilders +30bps, BKX +70bps

ECO: Housing Starts 1099k, est 1173k; MoM -3.8%, est +2.0%. Building Permits 1202k, est 1200k; MoM -0.2%, est -0.3%. PPI +0.1%, est -0.2%. Industrial Prod +0.9%, est +0.4%.

COMMODS: Brent +7%, WTI +5.5%, Gasoline +3.7%, Nat Gas +2.3%, Copper +1%, Gold unch, Silver -10bps, Ally -20bps, OJ -2.6%


ARRIS INT’L -6.2% q4 eps beats, revs just miss, guidance light, $300mm b/b
CASTLIGHT HEALTH -9.9% q4 eps/revs small beat, revs view touch light q1 & fy
GO DADDY -3.8% q4 beat, mid point revs view just below est
JACK IN THE BOX halted: q1 miss all around
LATTICE SEMI q4 loss vs profit est, revs miss, q1 guide light
BROCADE +3.9% q1 beats
NEWMONT MINING -3.3% q4 eps miss, revs inline
SUNPOWER -5bps q4 eps appears to beat, revs beat
WILLIAMS -4.3% q4 adj income misses, ebitda miss
NVIDIA +6.5% q4 eps/revs beat, q1 guide above est
INGRAM MICRO +22% to be acq’d by Tianjin for $6bln


AIR CANADA -12.1% Q4 earnings C$0.40 vs C$0.41 est, revs C$3.15B vs C$3.20B est
ALTRIA +15bps reaffirms FY
AMAZON +2.5% preparing to launch own-label fashion clothing line
BLOOMIN BRANDS -10.7% Q4 EPS 30c vs 29C est, raised div to 7c per share vs previous 6c, $10M bb
CAMPBELL SOUP +2.5% Beat & Raise; sees further margin improvement and costs savings.
CHEESECAKE FACTORY +1% Q4 EPS 54c vs 52c est, revs $526.8M vs $532.0M est
DORMAN PRODUCTS +10.4% Q4 EPS 67c vs 64c est, revs $204.8M vs $193.3M est
DR PEPPER -2.9% Sees FY EPS $4.20-4.30, est $4.34
FOSSIL +28.6% Q4 EPS $1.46, guides FY EPS $2.80-3.60 vs $3.12 est.
HOST HOTELS +90bps Q4 39c vs 35c est, revs $1.33B vs $1.35B est, sees FY $1.65-$1.69 vs $1.62 est
POTBELLY +9.8% Q4 EPS 8c vs 6c est, revs $95.1M vs $94.8M est
PRICELINE +11.2% Q4 Gross Bookings 5% Beat. Sees Q1 EPS $9-9.60, est $9.52. Sees Q1 Revs +9-16%, market +12.5%.
SHOPIFY +9.1% Q4 EPS/Revs ahead, raised FY Rev guide

DEVON ENERGY -4.4% reduces div to 6c from prior 24c
FMC TECH +7.1% Q4 EPS/Revs Miss, FY CapEx -28%; bounce of multiyear lows
KINDER MORGAN +10% Berkshire Hathaway now holds 26.5m shares according to 13F
NOBLE ENERGY +6.2% Q4 EPS 44c, revs $846M vs $1.03B est

AGILENT +2.1% Q1 EPS 46c vs 43c est, revs $1.03B vs $1.02B est, sees Q2 EOS 37c-39c vs 42c est
INOVIO +5.3% vaccine for Zika Virus induces robust immune responses in preclinical study
MYLAN +7.2% Greenlight reports new stakes in 4Q 13F

CSX +30bps sees Q1 earnings to “decline significantly” in Q1, market expecting much the same
GENERAL ELECTRIC +1.7% aims to bring forward Alstom cost savings, sees Oil unit outperforming comps
HONEYWELL +1.1% looking to raise €3-4bn in Euro debt
TEREX +4.2% terrible guidance but all about t/o. Zoomlion says to fund deal with 40% cash and 60% financing.

ANALOG DEVICES +1.3% Sees Q2 EPS 58-66c, est 65c
APPLE +1.5% opposes order to break encryption on shooters phone.
CERNER -4.8% seeing downgrade following weak earnings
COMSCORE -65bps Q4 adj EBITDA $37.4M vs $24M est, sees fy EBITDA $116-132M vs $109.9M est
ELECTRONIC ARTS +80bps new $500bn buyback
EROS -10.5% Q3 EBITDA $8.9M vs $19M est, revs $60.5M vs $59.7M est, expects to reach 1M paying subscribers by the end of FY 2017
GANNETT -7.2% Q4 EPS/Revs light
GARMIN +16.6% Q4 EPS/Revs ahead. Sees FY EPS $2.25, est $2.27. Sees FY Revs $2.82bn, est $2.77bn.
QORVO +2% $500m Buyback
RACKSPACE +3% multiple downgrades post weak earnings
T-MOBILE +1.1% Q4 Revs/EBITDA ahead but FY EBITDA guide lower (always conservative), already released subs.
TSMC +1.3% ADR updates Q1 rev NT$198B-201B vs NT$198B-201B previous
VASCO -3.8% sees 2016 revs $205m-215m vs $212 est

have a good evening.