Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.07% (1852.2), D -0.08% (16014.4), N -0.32% (3947.8), CL1 -4.14% (28.30), Copper -2.56% (203.75), Gold -0.04% (1189.03) 10YrYld -0.02 (1.7277), DXY -0.59% (96.01), Vix +2.08% (26.54).

The S&P closed inline with the European close ending the day just lower after a 130bps rally to the day’s highs into the last hour gave back its gains. Volumes 8% below yesterday to 9.8bln shares, still above avg of 9.5bln. Dollars traded off more than 10% to $347bln, dipping below avg of $354bln. Close to 2/3 of volume to the downside.

Markets remain under pressure, struggling to hold the afternoon bounce. Eminis -20bps (2% swing) vs Most Short -1%. DXY -60bps downside momentum building; EUR 1.1294, JPY 115.01. Another new low 2/10 curve, 10yr hits 1.70%; Banks -20bps. Oil testing $28; API 4:30pm. Oil services underperforming, IHS research report suggesting an additional 30% CapEx cut required from drillers; ANADARKO -7% and BRISTOW -20% follow DIAMOND 9% (yesterday) in cutting div. And despite USD weakness Copper remains under pressure and Gold run out of stream; saw shorts GDX -4%. On Earnings; OWEN ILLINOIS +10% (no warning, relief), MARTIN MARIETTA +9% (numbers miss but +ve commentary), MASCO +8% (good numbers, commentary), GOODYEAR +4% (good numbers, commentary), OMNICOM +3% (organic growth ahead), COCA-COLA +1.5% (Solid), FOX -2% (cuts EBITDA guide), GAP -3% (weak Jan Comps), REGENERON -6% (Bubblebox, earnings Miss), VIACOM -22% (falling ad revs). Ricardo turned Buyer P&G today, in our QCC Basket and certainly makes a lot of sense in these markets; we also highlight 3M, Colgate, Estee Lauder, Kimberly Clark (new 52 week high), Microsoft and Philip Morris (new 52 week high) on today’s note. WALMART under pressure following cautious supply chain checks, fits in with KOHL’S warning last week; Retails Sales Friday with bulk of earnings still to come later this month. Utils M&A; Algonquin Power paying $34/share for EMPIRE DISTRICT ELEXTRIC, 21% premium, has been on M&A Radar. Looking into tomorrow; earnings expected from ARMH, CSCO, EXPE, HUM, MYL, TSLA, TWTR, TWX, WFM. Yellen speaking 10am ET.
OUTPERFORMERS: Airlines +2.7%, Building Mats +2%, Transports +1.2%, Chems +1.1%, Pharma +90bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Oil Services -6%, Gold Miners -4.1%, Materials -3.1%, Media -2%, Real Estate -1.8%

ECO: NFIB Small Biz 93.9, est 94.5. JOLTS Job Openings 5607, est 5413.

COMMODS: Corn -30bps, Gold -50bps, Silver -90bps, Ally -1.3%, Nickel -1.5%, Nat Gas -2.1%, Copper -2.8%, WTI -5%

AKAMAI +13.7% q4 eps, revs beat
NUANCE +5.7% q1 eps, revs small beat
SOLARCITY -24.1% q4 loss less than est but q1 loss seen wider than est
DISNEY -2.5% q1 eps, revs beat
USANA -20% q4 eps miss, revs touch better, fy guide below est
PANERA +3.9% q4 eps beat, revs miss


21ST CENTURY FOX -1.9% q2 eps inline, revs light on movie weakness
OMINCOM +2.7% q4 eps small beat, revs small miss
RETAILMENOT -27.6% q4 adj ebitda, revs beat but guidance below est
SALESFORCE.COM +6.1% u/g @ Jefferies
VIACOM -21.5% q1 eps inline, revs light
PALO ALTO +2.1% positive comments @ OTR Research

PFIZER +1.9% added to US1 List @ BofA/Merrill
REGENERON -6.3% q4 eps/revs miss
WELLCARE +8.5% q4 small eps/revs beat, reaffirms
CVS HEALTH +1% q4 eps/revs inline, reaffirms guidance touch below street
DR. REDDY’S -6% q3 eps/revs miss

APOLLO INVESTMENT unch’d: q3 net inc/shr, total inc inline

WYNDHAM +2.6% q4 eps/revs small beats, fy revs guide better than est
WENDY’S -4.3% q4 eps small beat, revs better, midpoint fy guide below est
GAP STORES -3% poor Jan comps but sees q4 eps better than est
SEARS -8.9% sees q4 revs bit below est but q4 comps improving
COCA-COLA +1.5% q4 eps/revs small beat
BRIGHT HORIZONS -75bps q4 eps beat, revs inline, sees fy inline to better than est
WALMART -1.6% cautious comments @ Cleveland Research

INGERSOLL-RAND +1.4% q4 eps/revs inline, q1 eps seen below est, fy guide midpoint below est
REGAL BELOIT -8% q4 eps beat, revs miss, fy guide below est
ALISON TRANSMISSION q4 adj ebitda, res beat, fy revs view below est
TRANSDIGM -12.7% q1 eps, revs miss, fy view below est

GENESEE & WYOMING +3.5% q4 eps at high end of pre-announced range, revs touch light, fy view below est
XPO LOGISTICS -3.7% decides to keep truckload business

RANDGOLD -1.3% d/g @ Deutsche
OWENS-ILLINOIS +10% q4 eps/revs inline, fy range below est
MASCO +8.2% q4 eps, revs beat

ANADARKO -7% cuts div >80%
PLAINS GP -16.5% d/g @ BofA/Merrill
ONEOK -10.9% 4.5mm share spot secondary

Have a good evening.