Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -1.41% (1853.6), D -1.10% (16027.1), N -1.59% (3960.7), CL1 -2.49% (30.12), Copper -0.57% (209.05), Gold +1.31% (1189.35) 10YrYld -0.08 (1.7585), DXY -0.34% (96.71), Vix +12.02% (26.19).

The S&P closed up 85bps from the European close with all of that and then some coming in a last hour rally off session lows. Volumes up about 11% to 10.5bln shrares, more than 1bln above avg. Dollars traded up 5% from Friday to $386bln, $35bln above avg. 80% of volume printing to the downside for the day. A new closing low for the move in the S&P with 90 stocks in the index touching 52 week lows (vs 176 names on the prev closing low on January 20th)

Market continue to bleed lower; Oil/rates/credit/growth the list goes on. Eminis -1.5% (1.5% off the lows) vs Most Short -3.1%. DXY -30bps, failed to hold early bounce; EUR 1.119, JPY 115.68. 2/10 curve fallen off a cliff, 10yr hits 1.73%; Banks crushed, BKX -3.1%, MS -7%. New closing low HYG/JNK. Yellen speaking Wed/Thu. Oil back to $30; Gold safe haven trade gathers momentum; NEWMONT +3%. CHESAPEAKE -34% bankruptcy fears; WILLIAMS -34%. On Earnings; DIAMOND OFFSHORE +1.5%, HASBRO +1.4%, COGNIZANT -8%, ON SEMI -8%. China closed this week; ASHR -1%, FXI -2%. Not a huge amount of left to say; nearly 20% of S&P fresh 52 week lows, across multiple sectors. No bounce in growth; FACEBOOK (Buy) -4%, GRUBHUB (Short) -5%, WORKDAY (Short) -10%, Biotech ETF -3.2%. APPLE (Short) +1% outperforming tech, we now count 23 supply chain warnings; SKYWORKS & STM (Short) -5%. Looking into the rest of the week; Goldman TMT conference kicks off tomorrow, earnings from Coca-Cola and Disney. TESLA (Short) -9% reports Wednesday, we’re not expecting earnings to disrupt our thesis, with no earnings, remains too expensive. ACTIVISION (Buy) -6% reports Thursday, no new news today, we’re expecting good numbers. Additional thoughts on today’s ideas. APOLLO EDUCATION +24% confirms plans to be taken private; we remain a Seller PEARSON -1%. DEUT BANK ADR -8% said it had payment capacity of about €1bn, enough to pay additional Tier 1 coupons (Bberg); did Bear Sterns not say the same? YELP -11% earnings mistakenly released early, EBITDA light, CFO stepping down.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +2.5%, Rails +1%, Oil Services -10bps, Tech Hardware -10bps, Staple -30bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Solar -5.5%, Inv Banks -5%, Refiners -3.6%, Homebuilders -3.4%, Biotech -3.2%

COMMODS: Silver +4.3%, Nat Gas +4.2%, Gold +3.3%, Cocoa +3%, Copper -70bps, WTI -3.3%, Gasoline -3.6%, Coffee -3.8%

ECO: Labor Market Conditions 0.4, est 2.0.


21ST CENTURY FOX q2 eps inline, revs light on flimed entertainment miss
QUALYS q4 eps beat, revs inline, guidance light
GAP STORES Jan comps -6% vs est -3.9% est


FACEBOOK -4.2% India rejects differentiated data pricing
APPLE +1.1% further warnings in global supply chain
SALESFORCE -7.6% positive comments @ Deutsche
VERIZON -50bps CEO comments on interest in YAHOO -3.3%
MARVELL -1.2% u/g from sell @ B. Riley
CISCO +15bps u/g @ Macquarie
LINKEDIN +1.5% positive comments @ Stifel, Citron Research confirms long position
YELP -11.3% earnings erroneously released midday: q4 adj ebita miss, q1 view below est, CFO out

RALPH LAUREN -2.3% d/g @ Atlantic
FORD +1.2% positive valuation comments in WSJ
HASBRO +1.4% q4 eps, revs beat
L BRANDS -4.6% u/g @ Brean
HERBALIFE -3.5% new Pershing Square presentation on tapdo us

ORBITAL ATK -50bps u/g @ KeyBanc

NOVO NORDISK -3.8% d/g to sell @ UBS
QUINTILES -2.8% named franchise pick @ Jefferies
THERMO FISCHER SCIENTIFIC -1% positive comments in Barron’s

MOHAWK -5.1% named a top pick @ SunTrust
BEACON ROOFING -5.3% u/g @ Raymond James

CBOE HLDGS -1.3% d/g @ CLSA
WISDOMTREE -6.2% d/g @ Keefe Bruyette

APOLLO GLOBAL +24% to be taken private in $1.1bln deal
COGNIZANT -7.7% q4 eps small beat, revs small miss, sess q1/fy below est

DIAMOND OFFSHORE +1.5% q4 eps, revs best est, eliminates dividend
BAKER HUGHES -4.5% d/g @ Morgan Stanley
CHESAPEAKE -27.8% denies bankruptcy speculation

Have a good evening.