Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -1.85% (1879.9), D -1.29% (16204.8), N -3.44% (4024.5), CL1 -2.21% (31.02), Copper -2.06% (208.75), Gold +1.48% (1172.72) 10YrYld +0.00 (1.8426), DXY +0.50% (96.96), Vix +7.37% (23.45).
Another horrible session, growth not growing, NFP light; Nasdaq -6% this week testing big level. S&P -50bps from the Euro close. Overall volumes -3% and 2% below 20d ave. DXY +60bps reclaims 200dma but -2.5% on the week; EUR 1.1156, JPY 116.96. Failed bounce in rates; 10yr 1.95% to 1.83% this week; taking Banks -4%. Further Energy loan concerns cited by GENWORTH -22% and HARTFORD +2%. Commods week; Gold +4.4%, Copper +1%, Oil -8%. BAKER HUGHES +1.4%, Oil Rigs -31. HESS -12.5% placed 25m shares at $39; CONOCO -7%. On Earnings; TYSON +10%, ESTEE LAUDER +5%, HANESBRANDS -15%, ELIZABETH ARDEN -26%, LIONS GATE -27%, LINKEDIN -44%, TABLEAU -50%. Not a lot to say outside the obvious, “blood” and “bath” best I can come up with. LINKEDIN (Short) story is quite incredible really, aggregate stock based comp over 5yrs $1140m vs Net Income -$85m. Our pair vs FACEBOOK (Buy) -6% has returned 60% and we believe there’s more to go, full thoughts on today’s ideas (attached). TABLEAU blow up adding further pressure to high multiple software space; we reiterate Short WORKDAY -16% and don’t believe you’ve missed it! Or TESLA -7%, who report on Wed. ACTIVISION (Buy) -4% earnings Thu, we’re expecting a Beat and see this pull back (200dma) as a great entry point. SYMANTEC (Buy) +3% announced a number of positive corporate developments and well as a healthy capital return plan post the sale of Veritas to Carlyle. Looking into next week; China closed for NY (Foreign Reserves Sun night), Goldman Tech conf come at interesting time, Yellen speaking Tue/Wed, Retail Sales Fri.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +5.6%, Telcos +80bps, HHold Prod +70bps, Utils +30bps, Materials -10bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Social Networks -7.5%, IT Security -5.2%, Refiners -5.1%, Retail -4%, Biotech -3.2%

COMMODS: Nat Gas +4.7%, Sugar +3.3%, Gold +40bps, Silver -10bps, Copper -2.2%, Ally -2.4%, WTI -2.8%, Nickel -4.4%

ECO: Nonfarms 151k, est 190k. Unemployment Rate 4.9%, est 5.0%. Hourly earnings ahead.

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +19%, Chems +10%, Materials +8%, Utils +2.5%, Telco +2%

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Refiners -12%, Social Networks -9%, Retail -8%, Software -7%, Homebuilders -6%


CALLAWAY GOLF +5.8% Q4 better but weak guide
COCA-COLA -20bps upgraded at Susquehanna
DECKERS -2% all segments miss, GMs 210bps below street; cuts FY EPS/Rev guidance, downgraded at Sterne Agee
ELIZABETH ARDEN -26% Q2 EPS 10c, est 60c, Revs also weak
ESTEE LAUDER +4.6% Sees FY EPS $3.07-3.12, market $3.18. FX 5% hit. Sees FY Sales Growth towards upper end.
FORD -70bps reports Jan China sales +36% YoY
HANESBRANDS -15% all segments Miss and guides FY to lower end.
KOHL’S +1.3% downgraded at Atlantic Securities
POST HOLDINGS +11% Q1 EPS 20c Beat, Revs light
SOUTHWEST AIR -5% Jan Traffic +11.1%
SYSCO -1% upgraded at Argus
TYSON FOODS +10% new all time highs post earnings beat
VIRGIN AMERICA -6.5% Q4 PRASM down 5.1% YoY

BAKER HUGHES +1.4% Rigs -37 to 813
CONOCOPHILLIPS -7% downgraded at Soctia
HALLIBURTON -3.3% will not sell its hangar business in connection with pending acquisition of Baker Hughes
HESS -12.5% placing 25m shares at $39.
MARATHON PETROLEUM -7.6% downgraded at JPM

AON +4.4% Q4 EPS $2.27, est $2.08, Revs touch light
GENERAL GROWTH PROPERTIES -3.8% BBY imply no deal coming on call
GENWORTH FINANCIAL -22% earnings inline, selling assets to reduce debt
GOLDMAN unch, JPM -1.1%, KEYCORP -1% upgraded at UBS
HARTFORD -2% Q4 EPS 9c Beat

ATHENA HEALTH -13% Reaffirms outlook given in Dec

BEACON ROOFING -7.2% Q1 EPS/Revs ahead
USG +10% Q4 earnings beat, rev trails

CREE -2.3% downgraded at JPM
GRUBHUB -2% downgraded at Oppenheimer
LINKEDIN -44% Terrible print and chunky cut to guidance. Multiple downgrades
LIONS GATE -27% Q3 EPS/Revs Miss, terrible call; STARZ in sympathy
QORVO -4% already preannounced, CFO to retire, Citi dgrade
OUTERWALL -17% multiple downgrades following big cut to FY
SYMANTEC +3% last night announced a number of positive corporate developments and well as a healthy capital return plan
TABLEAU -49% ridiculous valuation on decelerating growth
UBIQUITI NETWROKS +6% upgrades coming through post Beat & Raise

Next week’s Earnings and Eco highlights……

MON: Cognizant, Diamond Offshore, Fox, Hasbro, ON Semi, Owens-Illinois, Yelp
TUE: Akamai, Coca-Cola, CVS, Disney, Fossil, Goodyear, Martin Marietta, Masco, Panera, Regeneron, SolarCity, Western Union; GS Tech Conf; NFIB, JOLTS Job
WED: Cisco, Expedia, Mylan, Owens Corning, Tesla, Time Warner, Twitter, Whole Foods
THU: Activision, AIG, BorgWarner, Bunge, CBS, Fireye, Kelloggs, Molson Coors, Pepsi, Reynolds, TripAdvisor, Zillow
FRI: Interpublic; Retail Sales

Have a great weekend.