Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.15% (1915.5), D +0.49% (16416.6), N -0.10% (4167.8), CL1 -1.64% (31.75), Copper +1.17% (211.95), Gold +1.13% (1155.59) 10YrYld -0.04 (1.8498), DXY -0.79% (96.51), Vix +0.88% (21.84).

Another messy session, further USD weakness triggering another dash for trash. S&P +20bps from the Euro close. Most Short +1.5%. Nasdaq continues to lag. Overall volumes -8% DoD and inline with 20d ave. DXY -80bps breaks 200dma, Euro testing 1.12 and JPY retesting Jan lows. Rates remain under pressure; 10yr 1.85%, Banks +1.4%. Oil goes out on session lows, 7% off morning spike. IBOV +3%. CONOCO -9% announced huge cut to div and CapEx. Copper and Gold extending gains and proxies flying; FREEPORT +18%, ALCOA +10%, GDX +5%. Industrials also loving the weaker USD; XLI +1.7%. Couple of positives within today’s earnings. TAKE TWO +7% impressive raise to guidance and adds further support to our eGaming theme; ACTIVISION -4% now 20% off the highs, earnings next week. On today’s note we highlight the winners and losers in Semis; overall the dynamics in the broader cyclical semi sector are better than expected; NXP SEMI +8%. GRUBHUB (Short) +13% guidance inline but clearly doesn’t consider Amazon and Uber coming to market later this year, 28% SI. Retailers under pressure following another warning from KOHL’S -19%, warm weather led to soft January; L BRAND -7% comps light; RALPH LAUREN -22% cuts guidance on FX; Sports Authority in bankruptcy talks; majority of earnings still to come so watch this space. Elsewhere on Earnings; CUMMINS +8%, VULCAN +7%, PHILIP MORRIS -1%, CLOROX -5%, METLIFE -5%. Focus tomorrow turns to Nonfarm; earnings expected from Estee Lauder (not looking good).

OUTPERFORMERS: Materials +5.4%, Gold Miners +5.2%, Railroads +4%, Oil Services +3%, Inv Banks +2.6%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Explorers -3%, Apparel -1.8%, Staples -90bps, Pharma -80bps,

COMMODS: Gold +1.4%, Copper +1.2%, Silver +1.2%, Ally +70bps, WTI -1.8%, Cocoa -2.5%, Cotton -2.7%, Nat Gas -3.1%

ECO: Challenger Jobs 41.6%. Nonfarm Prod -3%, est -2%. Initial Jobless 285k, est 278k. Factory Orders -2.9%, est -2.8%. Durable Goods -5%, est -4.5%.


ATHENA HEALTH -2% Reaffirms outlook given in Dec
DECKERS -9% Cutting FY guidance
ELIZABETH ARDEN -13% terrible numbers
HANNESBRAND -8% cuts fy guidance
LINKEDIN -25% big cut to guidance
LIONS GATE -5% Q3 EPS/Revs Miss
MITTTAL ADR -12% €3bn capital increase
QORVO -1% already preannounced
SYMANTEC (halted) declares $4 special div but cutting regular div 50%
TABLEAU -35% huge slowdown in license rev growth


BUFFALO WILD WINGS +7.6% Sees FY EPS $5.95-6.20, est $6.49, upgraded at Raymond James
CLOROX -5% sees EPS at upper end but market already there.
COTY +15% Q2 numbers Beat
DELPHI -50bps Sees Q1 EPS $1.28-1.38, est $1.44. Revs $4-4.1bn, est $4.22.
DUNKIN BRANDS +6% Q4 EPS 52c vs 20c est, revs $203.8M vs $203.4M est.
FASTENAL +10% Jan daily sales +3.3%
FIAT CHYRSLER -30bps Safey recall estimated 112,001
GRUBHUB +13% no disasters in the earnings, big short sq
HASBRO +1.4% said to have held talks about possible deal with MATTEL +1.5%
KOHL’S -19% cuts guidance following softer Jan, citing warmer weather
L BRANDS -7% Jan comps -2%, est +2.7%
PHILIP MORRIS -60bps cutting EPS guide
RALPH LAUREN -23% guiding Revs about 1% lower on FX; Sees FY OM 100bps lower.
YUM -20bps reaffirms FY operating profit forecast

CONOCOPHILIPS -8% earnings miss, cutting div 70%, cutting CapEx 16%.
WEATHERFORD +18% sees FY16 FCF $600m-$700m higher than est

METLIFE -5.5% Q4 EPS $1.23, est $1.36. Revs $17.1bn, est $17.6bn.
TD AMERITRADE +3.5% to acquire assets of FA Insight, terms undisclosed

BOSTON SCIENTIFIC -2.2% Q4 EPS 26c vs 25c est, revs $1.98B vs $1.99B
ILLUMINA -4% downgraded at Canaccord Genuity
PACIFIC BIO -22% seeing downgrades post earnings Miss
PRESITGE BRANDS +10% Q3 EPS 53c vs 49c est, revs $200.2M vs $197.4M est

CH ROBINSON +4% upgraded at Raymond James
COLFAX CORP +15% maintains FY 16 guidance
CUMMINS +8% Q4 EPS $2.02, est $2.11. Revs $4.77bn, est $4.68bn. See FY Revs -5-9%
HUB GROUP +10% upgraded at Stifel

VULCAN MATERIALS +6.4% Q4 EPS 74c, est 60c. Revs $857.3m, est $846.9m. Expect to see similar level of growth in 2016. EBITDA guide inline.

IMPERVA -16% Sees FY EPS 17-23c, est 30c. Sees Rrevs $302-307m, est $289.7m.
GOPRO -8% multiple downgrades after another earnings blow up
MICROCHIP +1% Sees Q4 EPS 65-69c, est 66c. Sees Q4 Revs $552-569m, est 568m.
NXP SEMICONDUCTORS +8% forecasts sales rising up to 55% after Freescale deal
TAKE TWO +7% Sees FY EPS $1.65-1.75, est $1.15. Sees FY $1.48-1.53, est $1.43bn.
TERADATA +8% Q4 revs beat, to exit majority of marketing app business
VIACOM +1.55 President and CEO Philippe Dauman replaced as Chairman

have a good evening