Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.50% (1912.5), D +1.13% (16336.7), N -0.50% (4172.0), CL1 +9.40% (32.68), Copper +2.14% (209.90), Gold +1.23% (1142.95) 10YrYld +0.03 (1.8792), DXY -1.65% (97.24), Vix -1.23% (21.71).
Markets hit hard over the first hour (Dudley/macro/FX) but sharp spike this afternoon on Oil squeeze saw markets close up on the day. Ridiculous. S&P +1.1% from the Euro close. Eminis see 2.5% swing, Nasdaq lagging. Overall volumes +18% DoD and 9% above 20d ave. ADP better, but ISM light. ROBERT HALF -7% made some positive comments on US employment but not translating to their stock price, ugly chart. DXY -1.7% sees biggest sell off in 2 months, pulling back to 200dma; various stops triggered in EUR 1.1107, JPY 117.82; very messy. 10yr 1.87%, briefly hit 1.8%; BKX +20bps, hit new low intraday. Oil sees big short squeeze on USD move, API/DOE ignored, would not be chasing. Gold rallies through 200dma; NEWMONT +11% tops S&P. EWZ +6% / EEM +3%. On Earnings; EATON +7%, COMCAST +6%, GILEAD 4.5%, GSK +3%, GM -2.5%, ILLUMINA -3%, YAHOO -5%, MONDELEZ -6.5%, MARATHON PET -8%. The message from industrials remains consistent, it aint going to get any better this year; seeing short covering post earnings. GENERAL MOTORS lower despite a positive call; remains bullish on China/US, not seeing slowdown; FIAT -70bps, TESLA -5%. WABASH +4% talked up strong back log, which could be an indication of AMAZONS -4% logistics plans. BARNES & NOBLE -9% crushed on reports Amazon looking to open 400 bookstores across the US (unconfirmed). ALPHABET now $60 off yesterday’s high; LINKEDIN -6% (Bubblebox/Sell) weak ahead of tomorrow’s earnings. In M&A; SYNGENTA +2% deal finally confirmed, biggest foreign deal by Chinese co. LIONSGATE +2% said to restart STARZ talks, earnings tomorrow. LOWES -6% not being rewarded for increasing Canadian exposure (hardly surprising), but taking advantage of weak CAD, buying Rona for $2.3bn. Looking into tomorrow; Earnings expected from Conoco, Clorox, Cummins, GrubHub, Qorvo, Ralph Lauren, Symantec; Durable Goods.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +7.3%, Materials +6.2%, Energy +4%, Media +3%, Telcos +1.7%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Refiners -3.6%, Software -1.2%, Autos -1%, Semis -70bps, Retail -60bps

COMMODS: WTI +8.3%, Brent +7.3%, Silver +2.4%, Copper +2.1%, Ally +1.6%, Gold +1%, Nat Gas +60bps, Soybeans -1%

ECO: ADP Employment 205k, est 195k. Services PMI 53.2, est 53.7; Comp 53.2, prev 53.7. ISM Non Man 53.5, est 55.1.

AFTERHOURS

ATMEL
BUFFALO WILD WINGS -1.5% Sees FY EPS $5.95-6.20, est $6.49
ETSY expected
GOPRO expected
IMPERVA -12% Sees FY EPS 17-23c, est 30c. Sees Rrevs $302-307m, est $289.7m.
METLIFE -3% Q4 EPS $1.23, est $1.36. Revs $17.1bn, est $17.6bn.
MICROCHIP Sees Q4 EPS 65-69c, est 66c. Sees Q4 Revs $552-569m, est 568m.
TAKE TWO +8% Sees FY Revs $1.48-1.53bn, prev $1.32-1.45bn. Sees FY EPS $1.65-1.75, market $1.15.
YUM -2% reaffirms FY operating profit forecast

ACTIVE TODAY

CONSUMERS
BUFFALO WILD WINGS -3.7% norovirus concerns
CHIPOTLE -2.7% Q4 Beats, Q4 comps -14.6%, receives subpoena
GENERAL MOTORS -2.1% Q4 EPS $1.39, est $1.20. Revs $39.6bn, est $39.3bn.
HYATT HOTELS +3% upgraded at Wells Fargo
LOWE’S -6% buying Rona (Canadian comp) for $2.3bn in cash
MARRIOT +50bps Downgraded at Wells Fargo
MONDELEZ -6.5% Q4 EPS 46c, est 48c. Revs $7.36bn, est $7.27bn. Organic Growth Sales +4.7%, est +3.3%. Cautious guide.

COMMUNICATIONS
COMCAST +6% Q4 earnings miss estimates, revs beat, $5B buyback
MATCH GROUP -12% sees Dating revenue +5-7% seq for each quarter of FY 16
TWITTER +3% said disappointed by Q4 active user growth
YAHOO -5% Q4 EPS 1c ahead. Exploring additional options, confirms 15% job cuts.

FINANCIALS
AIG -2% downgraded at William Blair
MORGAN STANLEY -70bps downgraded at Atlantic Equities
WELLS FARGO -2.6% says not in talks to acquire Credit Suisse

HEALTHCARE
ALEXION +5% Sees FY EPS $5.00-5.20, market $5.47; Sees Revs at lower end
GILEAD +5% Q4 EPS/Revs Beat. Sees FY16 Product Sales $30-31bn, est $31.6bn.
GSK +3% solid quarter, new product sales ahead
ILLUMINA -3% Q4 EPS 2c light, Revs inline
MERCK -1% guides FY EPS/Revs lower.
QIAGEN -10bps earnings miss, reported partnership with CosmosID

INDUSTRIAL
EATON +7% Sees Q1 EPS 80-90c, est 92c; sees continuation of “sluggish markets”.
HONDA -4% 1.7m recall, warnings dealers NOT to sell these models
KENNAMETAL +2% Sees FY EPS $0.85-$1.05, prev $1.50-1.70; key end market under “significant pressure”
TIMKEN +10% Sees FY EPS $1.90-2.00, est $2.13; enter 2016 with lower backlog and significant degree of market uncertainty
WABASH +4% Q4 EPS/Revs Beat, strong backlog for 2016

MATERIALS
FREEPORT +11% downgraded at Argus
INTERNATIONAL PAPER +1% Q4 earnings beat, rev misses est.
SYNGENTA +2% t/o finally done. ChemChina paying CHF 480, a little over $43bn.

SERVICES
ROBERT HALF -7% positive commentary on US employment, but hardly reflected in stock chart, new lows
MANPOWER -1% See Q1 EPS 87-95c, est 94c.

TMT
AUTODESK +8% sees Q4 at upper end, 10% job cuts
CORNING +1.6% increases quarterly dividend by 12.5%
FITBIT -30bps unveils “sleek fitness wristband”
INTERSIL -1.4% downgraded at Citi
MARVELL +6.5% Starboard Value takes 6.7% stake
MICROCHIP -2% downgraded at Goldman ahead of earnings
SILICON LABS -1.6% Q4 Eps 63c vs 48c est, revs $160.1M vs $158.7m est, sees Q1 eps 42c-48c vs 45c est

UTILITIES
SOUTHERN -2.5% Sees FY EPS $2.76-2.88, est $2.95