Aviate: US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -1.87% (1903.0), D -1.80% (16153.5), N -2.18% (4193.1), CL1 -5.53% (29.87), Copper -0.36% (204.90), Gold +0.05% (1128.92) 10YrYld -0.09 (1.8603), DXY -0.16% (98.86), Vix +10.16% (22.01).

Markets lower across the board, ugly out there with big moves in Oil/Rates/Earnings. Eminis -50bps from the Euro close. Overall volumes +5% DoD and 8% below 20d ave. DXY -20bps continue to fade; JPY holding 120, EUR back above 1.09. Huge move in rates; 10yr testing +1.86%; New low DB/GS/MS, BKX -3.2%. Oil testing $30, down 10% in 2 days. EWZ -6.5%/EEM -3.2%. Copper/Gold holding. On Earnings; MICHAEL KORS +24% (squeeze), MATTEL +14% (squeeze), DOW CHEM +6%, ALPHABET +2%, ANADARKO +3%, UPS +70bps, PFIZER -10bps, EXXON -3%, TESORO -8%, ARCHER DANIELS -9%, HARRIS -10%, PITNEY BOWES -14%, ROYAL CARRIBEAN -15%, ADT -16%, INTEGRATED DEVICES -27%. Very little to be bullish about today; GOOGLE numbers impressive but was expected. MATTEL (QCC) core biz showed first positive quarterly comp growth since Q411, 5% DY and 16% Short base could see further squeeze. Jan Autos Sales Light, trucks outperforming cars, VW sales -15%; FERRARI -12% crashed on earnings, China -22%; TESLA -7% new 52 week low. UPS well aware of disruption coming to the market plan to continue to enhance service so likes of AMAZON -4% can’t replace them; feels like this slow bleed will take a couple years to play out. APPLE (Short) -2% supplier IDTI crushed on disappointing guidance, remain a Seller SKYWORKS -5%. In M&A; GGP +2% made no comment on deal spec but sees several large retailer bankruptcies this year; PAC BIO +24% earnings tonight, said to have received an approach from Roche; SYNGENTA +6% deal tipped to come with earnings tomorrow.

OUTPERFORMERS: Chems +5%, Utils +40bps, Real Estate -1.1%, Telco -1.1%, Staples -1.3%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Drillers -6.7%, Oil Services -5%, Inv Banks -4.8%, Airlines -4%, SOX -3.4%

COMMODS: OJ +1.9%, Coffee +1.4%, Gold unch, Silver -30bps, Copper -50bps, Ally -1.3%, WTI -5%, Nat Gas -6%, Gasoline -7.6%

ECO: January Vehicle Sales 17.46m, est 17.30; Domestic 13.79, est 13.70m.


CHIPOTLE -3% Q4 Beats, Q4 comps -14.6%
GILEAD +20bps Q4 EPS/Revs Beat. Sees FY16 Product Sales $30-31bn, est $31.6bn.
ILLUMINA Q4 EPS 2c light, Revs inline
ROBERT HALF Q4 EPS/Revs broadly inline; healthy US jobs market
YAHOO -1% Q4 EPS 1c ahead. Exploring additional options, confirms 15% job cuts.


ADM -9% announces purchase of controlling stake in Harvest Innovations
ADT -16% Q1 EPS 49c vs 46c est, revs $900M vs $906.5M est, total customer adds 259k, est 270k
FIAT CHYSLER -4% Jan Sales +6.9%, est -0.1%
FERRARI -12% new lows, China -22%, sale guidance light
FORD -5% Jan Sales -2.8%, est -3.2%; Utils +4.1%, Trucks +0.2%, Cars -12.2%
GENERAL MOTORS -1.5% Jan Sales +0.5%, est -0.9%; Buick +45.5%
HAIN CELESTIAL -6% Q2 EPS tops highest est, revs beat, downgraded at Piper Jaffrey
HONDA MOTOR -40bps Jan US auto sales -1.7%
KOHL’S +3% upgraded at Buckingham
MATTEL +14% big short cover on earnings Beat
MICHAELS COMPANIES -1.3% acquires Lamrite West for $150M
MICHAEL KORS +24% big squeeze as Q3 not as bad as expected and FY guide broadly inline, multiple downgrades.
NISSAN -2.7% Jan Sales +1.6%, est -1.7%; trucks and SUV outperforming. Infiniti -11.8%
PVH +3% Sees FY EPS at upper end.
RENT-A-CENTER -26% Q4 comps miss, cuts div
ROYAL CARRIBEAN -15% Sees Q1 Net Yields +0.5%, est +3.6%. Cuts FY EPS 4% at midpoint
TOYOTA -1.2% Jan Sales +3.3%, est +5.8%; Trucks +13.3%, Cars -5.8%

ALPHABET +1.3% Impressive Beat led of course by GOOGLE. Paid clicks +31%, est +21.8%. CapEx $2.1bn, est $2.9bn.
SIRIUS XM -4% Q4 EPS inline, reaffirms fy 2016
TWITTER -10% downgraded at Stifel
VODAFONE -2.5%/LIBERTY -1.2% said to resume talks on partnership.

ANADARKO +2.6% cutting CapEx by nearly 50%
EXXON -2.2% Q4 EPS 67c, est 63c, Revs $59.91bn, est 50.85bn
TESORO -8.2% Q4 EPS 11% Miss.

AFLAC +1.4% Q4 EPS/Revs Beat
GENERAL GROWTH PROP +2% guidance broadly inline, no mention of deal spec
MORGAN STANLEY -5% upgraded at Macquarie

ALERE -40bps multiple downgrades
PFIZER -10bps Sees FY EPS $2.20-2.30, est $2.38. Sees FY Revs $49-51bn, est $52.6bn.

EMERSON +80bps Q2 EPS/Revs ahead, Industrial Automation weak, same headwinds will continue through 2016.
FLOWSERVE -3.4% Cuts FY guidance, continued uncertainty, focused on cost savings
HARRIS -10% weak guide
PENTAIR -4.4% cuts Q1 EPS guide, Revs inline.
RYDER -6% cuts guidance, highlights weak rental market
UPS +65bps Q4 EPS $1.57, est $1.42 (highest ever Q4). Revs $16.1bn, est $16.2bn.
WABCO -3.6% acquires MICO incorporated, terms undisclosed

DOW CHEMICALS +6% Q4 EPS/Revs Decent Beat
LYONDELLBASELL -3% Q4 earnings beat, revs $7.07B vs $7.52B est.
SYNGENTA +6% reports to be bought by ChemChina for $43 Billion, unconfirmed

FIREYE -3% DealReporter lists potential Cisco targets
FITBIT -4% rated new outperform at Oppenheimer
INTEGRATED DEVICES -27% cuts guidance, upgraded at Wedbush
LOJACK +20% being acquired by CALAMP for $6.45/share
NOKIA -1.3% downgraded at CLSA
PITNEY BOWES -14% Sees FY EPS -6% at midpoint
PLANTRONICS 27% earnings miss, downgraded at Raymond James

DOMINION downgraded at Citi