Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.04% (1939.4), D -0.10% (16449.2), N +0.17% (4286.6), CL1 -6.66% (31.38), Copper -0.31% (206.05), Gold +1.00% (1129.38) 10YrYld +0.03 (1.9503), DXY -0.60% (99.01), Vix -1.14% (19.97).

Interesting price action today with futures ignoring the Oil reversal, +ve short term at least. S&P +30bps from the Euro close. Overall volumes -21% from Friday and 13% below 20d ave. DXY -60bps reversing following weaker macro, focus on NFP Friday. Rates a little higher (10yr 1.95%) but “one and done” calls growing; Banks -1%. The last time ISM was below 50 for 4 consecutive months was 09. Fischer “negative rates are working more than I expected”. Oil gives back last week’s upside and then some, no standout story. China data weak (market closed next week); ASHR -3.3%, FXI -2.2%. Brazil holding, EWZ +25bps. Gold retesting last week’s highs, 200dma next target; GDX +3.1%. On Earnings; SYSCO +8.4%, AETNA +1.5%, ROPER -7%. Several deals today, none widely expected. ALERE +45% being acquired by ABOTT LABS +1.6% for $56/share, $5.8bn. QUESTAR +23%, being acquired by DOMINION -3% for $25/share, $4.4bn; Ricarrdo continues to highlight Utils outperformance. STRYKER (unch) buying Sage Products for $2.77bn. TWITTER +7% spec continues, Silver lake deny. BARRACUDA +11% said to be in the shop window, follows recent CYBERARK +1.3% spec. TELSA (Short) +3% as Musk exercises options, MS cut pt over 25%. FACEBOOK (Buy) +2.5% makes another new high. WALMART (Buy) +1.7% breaks above 200dma for first time since April last year; our bet on weaker Yuan. Not a lot else out there today. Plenty to come later this week; Exxon, UPS, GM, Take-Two, Conoco, Grubhub, LinkedIn, Vulcan Materials; Auto Sales, ADP, ISM Non-Man, NFP.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +3.1%, Airlines +2.4%, Utils +1%, Telco +90bps, Autos +80bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Drillers -3.4%, Ois Services -2.7%, Homebuilders -1.4%, Banks -1%, Materials -90bps

COMMODS: Cocoa +3.3%, Gold +1.1%, Silver +90bps, Copper -30bps, Sugar -2.4% Gasoline -4%, WTI -6%, Nat Gas -6.2%

ECO: Man PMI 52.4, est 52.6. ISM Man 48.2, est 48.4. Construction Spending 0.1%, est 0.6%.


AFLAC Q4 EPS/Revs Beat
ALPHABET +6% Q4 EPS $8.67, est $8.10, Revs $17.27bn, est $16.89bn. Paid clicks +31%, est +21.8%. New all time highs.
ANADARKO +2% earnings mixed, expects to cut FY CapEx 50%
CABOT “….slowing economic environment in China and lower energy prices”
FLOWSERVE -1% Sees FY EPS $2.40-2.75, est $292
GENERAL GROWTH PROP guidance broadly inline, no mention of deal spec, call tomorrow
HAIN CELESTIAL -2% reaffirms guidance
INTEGRATED DEVICES -2% Q3 EPS/Revs broadly inline
LEGGETT & PLATT -4% Sees FY EPS $2.30-2.50, est $2.36. Sees Revs at lower end.
MATTAL +6% Q4 Revs/EPS Beat
PVH sees FY EPS at top end of range
TESORO expected


AMERICAN AIRLINES +1% upgraded at Cowen
CARMAX -50bps announces CEO to retire by end of 2016
CHIPOTLE +4.1% CDC ends E. Coli probe, upgraded at BofA
KEURIG GREEN MOUNTAIN +40bps Q1 69c vs 82c est, revs $1.26B vs $1.33B est
MONSTER BEVERAGE +2% upgraded at Wells Fargo
RESTORATION HARDWARE -3% downgraded at Cowen
SYSCO +8.4% Q2 EPS 45c vs 41c est
TIFFANY & CO +1.4% downgraded at Cowen

AIG -30bps downgraded at BMO; Ichan continues to push management
LENDING TREE +50bps initiated outperform at Northland Securities
SANTANDER CONSUMER USA -3% downgraded at BofA (subprime concerns growing)

ABBOTT LABORATORIES +1.8% to buy ALERE +45% for $5.8 Billion
AETNA +1.8% Q4 EPS $1.37 vs $1.21 est.
CARDINAL HEALTH -2% Q2 EPS $1.30 vs $1.26 est, revs $31.4B vs $29.23B est
CENTENE +2.6% registers 1.14M shares for holders
HAEMONETICS +9% Q3 EPS 48c vs 46c est, revs $233.4M vs $238.1M est.
STRYKER +20bps to acquire Sage products for $2.77B

AIR PRODUCT +3.6% upgraded at UBS
ALCOA -1% in pact with Elliot Management; Names 3 to Board
CNH Industrial +4% upgraded at BofA
GENUINE PARTS -2.5% downgraded at JP Morgan
PRAXAIR +60bps upgraded at UBS
ROPER TECHNOLOGIES -7% Q4 EPS $1.82 vs $1.87 est, revs $947.6m vs $960.6m est
TESLA Musk exercises options; MS cut pt 25%

FORTINET +1% initiated outperform at Northland Securities
FOX unch looking to make $250m in savings through job cuts
IMAX -2.3% and DISCOVERY +30bps announce global distribution and marketing partnership
NOKIA -12% Samsung patent ruling disappoints investors; ALCATEL -12%
PTC +2.6% upgraded at Sterne Agee
TWITTER +6.7% reports of possible deal with Silver Lake denied
YAHOO +20bps to unveil cost cutting plan, earnings tomorrow
XEROX -3.4% downgraded at Morgan Stanley

CENTERPOINT ENERGY +4.2% guides FY 16 EPS $1.12-1.20 vs $1.11 est
DOMINION -2.8% to buy QUESTAR +23% in all cash deal for $4.4 Billion

have a good evening.