Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +2.45% (1939.9), D +2.47% (16466.3), N +2.22% (4279.2), CL1 +1.35% (33.67), Copper +0.51% (206.20), Gold +0.22% (1117.77) 10YrYld -0.05 (1.9244), DXY +1.05% (99.54), Vix -9.72% (20.20).

The S&P closed up 150bps from the European close to end the day at session highs. Volume up more than 10% to 10bln shares vs avg of 8.8bln. Dollars traded up more than 15% to just shy of $400bln vs an avg of $330bln. More than 90% of volume printing to the upside.

Markets rally into month end, beaten up names leading post earnings. Most Short +3% vs Eminis +2.6%. On the month; S&P -5%, Nasdaq -7%. DXY +1% reversing recent weakness on Japanese rate move, 100 back in sight; JPY 121.06, EWJ +2.4%. Rates rolling over, 10yr 1.92%; Banks +2.7%. Oil nearly +5% on the week, nothing has changed but certainly offered some relief various proxies; EWZ +8% & RSX +7% this week. On Earnings; SEAGATE +9%, FORTINET +7%, VISA (QCC) +7%, MASTERCARD (QCC) +6%, MICROSOFT (QCC) +6%, SKYWORKS (Short) +6%, XEROX +6%, COLGATE (QCC) +4%, ABBVIE -2%, AMAZON -8%, EA -8%. MA/V overall numbers solid outside the US growth/FX remains challenging. SWKS bouncing despite guidance cut, bullish call but we remain unconvinced. AMZN reversing yesterday’s gains, they’ve showed us last year they can make money but 2016 going to be investment year, look out for further Logistics/ecommerce disruption. NETFLIX (Short) -3% should be afraid of Prime Video. Great price action in ACTIVISION (Buy) +3%, we see EA issues company specific; big squeeze SONY ADR (Buy) +18% post earnings. Not a lot of new outside of the earnings today. FACEBOOK (Buy) +3% new all time highs. Biotech continues to lag; GILEAD -5.5% fallen off a cliff as CEO steps down. Another big earnings week ahead; Alphabet, Conoco, Exxon, GM, GrubHub, LinkedIn; and plenty of macro, NFP Friday.

OUTPERFORMERS: Materials +7.4%, Oil Services +5.1%, SOX +4.6%, Airlines +4%, Software +3.6%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Chems +80bps, Pharma +1.2%, Biotech +1.4%, Regional Banks +1.6%, Telco +1.8%

ECO: GDP +0.7%, est +0.8%. Chicago PM 55.6, est 45.3. Michigan Sentiment 92.0, est 93.0/

COMMODS: Nat Gas +5.5%, Gasoline +3.1%, Corn +1.6%, WTI 1.4%, Copper +60bps, Silver +30bps, Gold +5bps, Coffee -2.3%

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Materials +13%, Gold Miners +9%, Drillers +7%, Telco +4%, Semis +4%

WEEKLY UNDERPRFORMERS: Biotech -7%, Chems -3%, Pharma -3%, Tech Hardware -2%, Refiners -1%

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
AMAZON.COM -7.6% q4 eps miss, revs touch light, midpoint of q1 revs guide bit below est
ELECTRONIC ARTS -7.5% q3 eps beats, revs inline, q4 guide below est
SKYWORKS +6.4% q1 eps/revs beat, sees q2 below est
FORTINENT +6.8% q1 inline, $200mm b/b
PROOFPOINT -6.5% q4 loss inline w/ est, guides for wider than expected losses
WESTERN DIGITAL +5% q2 eps beat, slight revs miss, q3 revs seen light of est
SYNAPTICS +10.7% q2 eps small beat, revs miss, q3 rev guide below est
KLA-TENCOR +2.4% q2 eps/revs beat
JUNIPER +5.1% u/g @ Bernstein
SONY +17.7% q3 eps/revs beat, guidance unch’d

HEALTHCARE
ALIGN TECHNOLOGIES +11.1% q4 eps/revs beat, q1 guide below est
AMGEN +3% q4 eps beats, revs inline, fy eps midpoint better than est
CR BARD +2.8% q4 eps/revs small, fy guide ahead of est
IDEXX +8.5% q4 eps beat, revs miss
ABBOTT +3.1% d/g @ William Blair
RADIUS HEALTH -2.5% positive comments @ Canaccord
ABBVIE -1.7% q4 eps 1c beat, revs just miss est, reaffirms; positive chmp opinion on drug w/ BRISTOL-MYERS

CONSUMER
VISA +7.4% q1 penny better, revs touch light, no change guide despite some cautious comments
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE +3.9% q4 eps 1c beat, revs small miss
JC PENNEY +6.5% u/g @ Credit Suisse
WHIRLPOOL +1.8% q4 eps beats, revs touch light, midpoint of fy guide below est
HONDA -1.2% q3 eps/revs miss, reits guidance
MOLSON COORS +2.3% prices secondary
DECKER’S +3% positive comments @ Canaccord
AMERICAN AIRLINES +2.2% q4 eps small beat, revs inline

CAPITAL GOODS
MANITOWOC +12.4% q4 #s better
AO SMITH +2.9% q4 eps beat, revs miss, midpoint of fy guide below est
HONEYWELL +5.3% q4 eps/revs inline, reaffirms guidance
TYCO +2.7% q1 inline w/ pre-announcement, guidance midpoint below street
UNISYS +10.2% q4 eps/revs miss

FINANCIALS/REAL ESTATE
SIMON PROPERTY -30bps q4 inline, fy ffo guide below est
KCG HLDGS -1.7% q4 eps a loss vs est for profit, revs touch light

SERVICES
XEROX +5.6% confirms split

ENERGY
PHILLIPS 66 +1.8% q4 eps beats
CONSOL +17.6% q4 adj ebita, revs beat
ENSCO +4.4% d/g @ Citi
DIAMOND OFFSHORE +4.1% u/g @ Citi

MATERIALS
EAGLE MATERIALS +14.3% q3 eps/revs miss
PRAXAIR +1.8% q4 eps inline, revs touhc light, guideance below street
AIR PRODUCTS +6.5% q1 eps beat, res miss, midpoint of fy guide inline w/ est

Next week’s Eco and Earnings highlight…..

MON: Alphabet, Anadarko, Broadcom, Etsy, Roper, Sysco, Tesoro; Personal Spending, PCE, Man PMI, ISM, Construction Spending
TUE: ADT, Baxter, Dow Chemicals, Emerson, Exxon, Ferrari, Gilead, Illumina, Michael Kors, Pentair, Qiagen, Pfizer, UPS, Yahoo; Auto Sales
WED: Comcast, Eaton, General Motors, GoPro, Intl Paper, Kennametal, Manpower, Marathon Pet, Merck, Metlife, Microchip, Mondelez, NXP Semi, Silicon Labs, Take-Two, Weatherford, XL Group, Yum; ADP Employment, Services/Comp PMI, ISM Non-Man
THU: Clorox, ConocoPhillips, Cummins, Delphi, Dunkin, GrubHub, LinkedIn, Lions Gate, Perrigo, Qorvo, Ralph Lauren, Tableau, Vulcan Materials; Challenger Jobs, Durable Goods
FRI: Estee Lauder, Tyson Foods, USG; NonFarm

Have a great weekend.