Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -1.09% (1883.0), D -1.38% (15944.5), N -2.48% (4128.9), CL1 +2.03% (32.09), Copper +1.08% (205.95), Gold +0.52% (1125.68) 10YrYld +0.01 (2.0011), DXY -0.39% (98.97), Vix +2.71% (23.11).

The S&P closed down 75bps from the European close with that and then some coming in the wake of the Fed’s statement this afternoon. Little pop in volume up 10% today to 8.8bln shares back above avg of 8.4bln. Dollars traded up 17% to $325bln, $10bln above avg. Down volume though just exceeding up volume about 55-45.

Markets failed to hold Oil/Short rally, Fed dull and unlikely they will raise in March; Nasdaq underperforming again. Eminis -1% vs Most Short -2%. DXY -40bps continues to drift, Durable Goods and GDP still to come this week. 10yr retesting 2%; Banks gave back the mornings outperformance post Fed; Auto loan bubble getting some traction post SANTANDER CONSUMER -18% blow up. Oil struggling to hold $32, Inv build double expectations but Russian Energy minister doing his part to prop up prices. Gold/Copper holding gains. FREEPORT +11% tops S&P. IBOV +2.3%. On Earnings; HESS +6%, BIOGEN +5%, GENERAL DYNAMICS +1%, UTD TECH -20bps, FIAT CHYRSLER -2%, STATE STREET -7%, APPLE -7%, BOEING -9%, TEXTRON -13%, US STEEL -14%. We stepped off AT&T +20bps today following last night’s earnings, no catalysts in sight; prefer to own CCI (earnings tonight), NVDA or TMUS. Not a lot of positives takeaways from earnings, BIIB/HES have fallen a lot so more relief there, Biotech crushed….BA/GD/TXT all cut guidance, BA is not a stock that moves 10% intraday, very alarming; NOC report tomorrow. APPLE (Sell) under delivered as many (including ourselves) had flagged, we believe downside risk remain; iPhones about to go –ve, extreme deceleration in China, rising inventories, USD. Technical target $90. And, in order to maintain GMs supply chain set for further squeeze; SKYWORKS (Short) -6% reports tomorrow. If you’re looking for Shorts then I would check out Toby’s Bubblebox, generating some great alpha; NETFLIX -7% making new low for move, PRICELINE -6% sees downgrade. Another chunky earnings day with a bit of everything; Amazon, CAT, Ford, Mead Johnson, Microsoft, Pulte & Visa – full list below.

OUTPERFORMERS: Oil Services +1.8%, Gold Miners +1.7%, Regional Banks +1.3%, Utils +20bps, Staples -10bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Tech Hardware -4.3%, Biotech -3.1%, Chems -2.9%, Defense -2.5%, Software -1.9%

COMMODS: WTI +2.1%, Ally +2.1%, Copper +90bps, Gold +60bps, Silver +10bps,

ECO: New Home Sales 544k, est 500k. MoM +10.8%, est +2.0%. Rates unch.


VARIAN -70bps q1 beats, boots fy view
CITRIX +90bps q4 beats, sees q1 better than est, $400mm b/b
INTERSIL q4 beats
LAS VEGAS SANDS +1.5% q4 eps/revs miss
HOLOGIC +20bps q1 beats, sees q2 about inline
QUALCOMM -1.2% q1 eps beats, q2 view light
LAM RESEARCH -2.2% q2 beats, sees q3 below est
CAVIUM q4 inline
TRACTOR SUPPLY q4 inline w/ pre-annoucement, fy view midpoint below est
SANDISK +1.2% q4 beats
CIRRUS LOGIC -60bps q3 beats, q4 view below est
FACEBOOK +7.2% q4 beats
SERVICENOW -15% q4 miss
EBAY -9.7% q4 inline, poor guide
PAYPAL +6% q4 eps/revs beat, $2bln b/b
VERTEX q4 loss but less than est
JUNIPER -9.5% q4 beat but q1 guide below est, CFO out
MELLANOX +4.9% q4 beats
UNITED RENTALS -7.8% q4 eps miss, revs inline, guidance midpoint below est
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS +2.6% q4 beats, guide about inline


APPLE -6.6% q1 eps beat, revs small miss, revs guide below est
EMC -1.7% q4 eps inline, revs miss
VMWARE -9.8% q4 inline, CFO leaving, 2016 guide dissapoints
SEAGATE -2.8% init sell @ Citi
AT&T +0.3% q4 eps inline, revs miss
CA +3.3% q3 eps/revs beat

STATE STREET -7.2% q4 eps beat, revs just short
SANTANDER CONSUMER -18.2% results mostly inline but signs of stress going forward
CITIZENS FINANCIAL +4.5% to join S&P 500
SEI INVESTMENTS -12.7% q3 inline but sees headwinds

BOEING -8.9% q4 eps/revs beat but guidance light
UNITED TECHNOLOGIES +0.2% q4 eps inline, reaffirms
TEXTRON -13.4% q4 eps/revs miss
ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS +2.3% q4 small eps/revs beat, reaffirms
SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS -7.8% search for new COO

LA-Z-BOY -7.7% d/g @ BB&T
TUPPERWARE -14.6% q3 eps/revs miss, guidance light
BED BATH & BEYOND -2.3% d/g to sell @ Citi
PANERA +1.0% u/g @ BTIG
JARDEN -1.8% d/g @ Citi
FERRARI -2.0% reports prelim q4 sales
FIAT CHRYSLER -2.1% 2015 ebit ex-items better than est
ETHAN ALLEN -2.2% q2 eps/revs beat
MOLSON COORS 0.0% sees q4 eps below est, mid point of views below

ST JUDE MEDICAL -0.3% q4 beats but view below est
BIOGEN +5.2% q4 beat
REGENERON -6.3% d/g @ Canaccord
ANTHEM -4.7% Obamacare costs leading to q4 & outlook below est

HESS +5.9% cutting spending
NOBLE ENERGY +3.8% cuts div, sets capex budget

BHP BILLITON -3.0% u/g @ Morgan Stanley
WR GRACE -2.3% d/g off conviction list @ Goldman
US STEEL -14.2% q4 loss, b/e ebitda forecast

FEDEX +0.8% 25mm share b/b
EXPEDITORS -5.2% d/g @ RBC

TOTAL SYSTEM SERVICES -14.7% $2.35bln acq

This week’s Earnings and Eco Highlights…..

THU: Abbott, Airgas, Alibaba, Altria, Amazon, Amgen, Baker Hughes, Bristol Myers, Broadcom, Carbo, CAT, Celgene, Cypress Semi, EA, Eli Lilly, Fairchild Semi, Ford, Fortinet, Harley Davidson, Harman, H&P, Hersey, JetBlue, Johnson Controls, L3 Comm, Lear, Mead Johnson, Microsoft, Northrop, Nucor, Potash, Putle, Raytheon, Sherwin Williams, Skyworks, Stanley B&D, Synaptics, TW Cable, Under Armour, Valero, Visa, Western Digital; Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales
FRI: Abbvie, Air Products, American Air, Baxalta, Chevron, Colgate, Honeywell, MasterCard, PACCAR, Praxair, Tyco, Whirlpool, Xerox; GDP, Chicago PM, Michigan Sentiment

have a good evening