Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +1.41% (1903.6), D +1.78% (16167.2), N +0.89% (4233.9), CL1 +0.20% (30.41), Copper +1.93% (203.65), Gold +1.18% (1121.02) 10YrYld -0.00 (2.0011), DXY -0.31% (99.06), Vix -6.83% (22.50).

The S&P closed up 35bps from the European close holding the bulk of the day’s gains through the afternoon. Volume just slightly down vs yesterday at 7.8bln shares still below the avg of 8.2bln. Dollars traded also a small decline $274bln vs avg of $305bln. 90% of volume printing to the upside.

Markets back in relief rally mode, Oil remains the driver. Most Short +3% vs Eminis +1.3% (struggling at 1900); Nasdaq underperforming. DXY sees another small pull back. Rates flat, Banks bouncing; HUNTINGTON -9% Buying FIRSTMERIT +18%. Oil reversing yesterday’s sell off, chatter of production cuts supporting the bid; USO +5%. HESS +1.3% cuts CapEx another 20%. API 4:30pm. Gold breaks above 100dma, Yuan protection? Soros and China going to war?! Chinese New Year kicks off 8th Feb; ASHR -3.5%, FXI +70bps. A good day to report average numbers and major blowups avoided; SPRINT +19% (raised EBITDA, 35% SI), COACH +10% (supportive China comments), AK STEEL +9% (Revs inline, 27% SI), FREEPORT +7% (focused on debt reduction, needs oil to double!), DOVER +6% (Raised EPS on tax rate), 3M +5% (QCC, Reaffirms), J&J +5% (EPS guide higher but Rev Below), ZIONS +4% (flags Energy loans), PARKER HANNIFIN +4% (weakness through 2016), P&G +3% (EPS guide below), DU PONT +1% (merger on track, EPS guide below), WW GRAINGER +30bps (reaffirmed), LOCKHEED -50bps (Revs/EPS guide below). In M&A, TEREX +37% confirms $30 bid from Zoomlion (1157 HK); Konecranes will continue to pursue merger of equals; JOY GLOBAL. This actually happened, WEIGHT WATCHERS +20% as Oprah announced she has lost 26 pounds despite eating bread “every single day”. Sums up this market….. Another big earnings day tomorrow, in our names CCI/FB/QCOM/URI; New Home Sales and FOMC

UTPERFORMERS: Materials +5.4%, Solar +5%, Gold Miners +4.4%, Energy +3.8%, Homebuilders +3.7%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Biotech -40bps, Software +70bps, Utils +80bps, Staples +90bps, Pharma +90bps

COMMODS: WTI +3.5%, Copper +2%, Silver +1.9%, Gold +1.5%, Ally +1.3%, Nat Gas +10bps, Soybeans -50bps, Cotton -50bps

ECO: FHFA House Price Index +0.5%, est +0.5%. CaseShiller 182.86, est 183.09. Markit Services PMI 53.7, est 54.0; Comps 53.7, prev 54.0. Consumer Confidence 98.1, est 96.5.


APPLE unch Q2 Rev and GM guide light
AT&T -75bps q4 eps inline, revs miss
CA +4.7% q3 eps/revs beat
ETHAN ALLEN +4.2% q2 eps/revs beat
MOLSON COORS sees q4 eps below est, mid point of views below est
CANADIAN NAT’L q4 eps beat, small revs miss
CAPITAL ONE -80bps q4 eps/revs small beat
NOBLE ENERGY cuts div, sets capex budget


DISNEY +1% d/g @ Atlantic
NETSUITE -1.5% d/g @ BofA/Merrill
SBC COMM +3.6% u/g @ Stifel
FORTINENT -1.3% d/g @ Deutsche
STRATASYS -4.1% d/g @ JPMorgan
VODAFONE +2.1% u/g @ Jefferies
RAMBUS +6.7% q4 eps/revs beat, fy guide better
SANMINA +9.8% q1 inline, q2 guide better than est
SPRINT +18.7% q3 adj ebitda beats, revs miss, raises fy view
RED HAT -1.1% d/g @ BofA/Merrill

PROCTOR & GAMBLE +2.6% q2 eps beat, small revs miss
UNDER ARMOUR -1.2% p/t cut @ Piper Jaffray
COACH -9.8% q2 eps small better, revs touch light
FOOT LOCKER added to US 1 List @ BofA/Merrill
SALLY BEAUTY +5.5% u/g @ Oppenheimer
POLARIS -9.2% q4 eps/revs small beat, fy view below est
CRACKER BARREL +5.5% u/g @ SunTrust
LULULEMON +1.7% Lone Pine reports 5% stake
HYATT +2.7% positive comments @ Stifel
MONRO MUFFLER BRAKE +4% q3 inline, revs touch light, comps fall

JOHNSON & JOHNSON +5% q1 eps small beat, revs touch light, fy revs view below est

JANUS CAPITAL +1% q4 1c better, revs miss
AIG +1% announces strategic actions, $25bln of capital return over 2yrs
BROWN & BROWN +2.9% q4 eps/revs beat
ZIONS BANCORP +4.2% q3 eps, revs beat
STARWOOD PROPERTY +5% raises fy view
VISA +20bps positive comments @ Bernstein
HUNTINGTON -8.5% $3.4bln deal to acq FIRSTMERIT

LOCKHEED MARTIN -50bps q4 eps/revs beat, fy view below est
DOVER +5.7% q4 eps/revs beat, reaffirms
DANAHER +35bps q4 eps inline, revs small miss, mid point of guide below st
CRANE +6.8% q4 eps beats, revs miss, fy view below est
GRACO +9.8% q4 eps, revs beat
WW GRAINGER +25bps q4 eps beat, revs inline
PARKER-HANNIFIN +4.1% q2 eps
TEREX +36.6% confirms unsolicited $30/shr approach from Zoomlion

STEEL DYNAMICS +6.1% q4 eps above Dec guide, revs below est
SOUTHERN COPPER +6.4% u/g @ JPMorgan
DUPONT +90bps q4 eps inline, revs miss, fy below est
USG -70bps d/g @ Credit Suisse
3M +5.2% q4 eps/revs beat
FREEPORT MCMORAN +6.6% adj loss less than est, revs touch light, looking at all options to cut debt

SWIFT TRANSPORT +21.1% q4 eps beat, revs just light, fy est at midpoint of guide

HESS +1.3% reduction in E&P budget

Have a good evening.