Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -1.56% (1877.1), D -1.29% (15885.2), N -1.48% (4196.5), CL1 -7.58% (29.75), Copper -0.55% (199.15), Gold +0.98% (1108.90) 10YrYld -0.04 (2.0099), DXY -0.28% (99.30), Vix +7.92% (24.13).

The S&P closed down 90bps from the European close to go out at session lows losing about a full percent over the last hour. Volume lighter today off 15% from Friday to 7.8bln shares, below the 20day avg of 8.1bln. Dollars traded off 14% to $275bln also falling below avg of $303bln. Just about 90% of volume to the downside.

Markets close on session lows as Oil slips below $30; Dallas Fed hits new post crisis low. Eminis -1.6% vs Most Short -3.8%. DXY holding the trend but big macro week ahead. 10yr retesting 2%; Banks -3.5% new lows for move, with Energy proxies worst off; FIFTH THIRD -6%. Saudi comments cited for Oil weakness, lower for longer sounds more realistic to me; USO, CONOCO, HESS. On Earnings/update; MCDONALDS +70bps, GRUBHUB -2.4%, HALLIBURTON -3%, DR HORTON -5%, KIMBERLY CLARK -7.5%. In M&A; JOHNSON CONTROLS -4% and TYCO +12% announce merger, JCI will be based in Ireland to cut the tax bill, which has already seen high profile complaints. MCDONALDS hit a new all time high post earnings, US Comps +5.7% (est +2.1%), what’s not to love about an all day breakie! GRUBHUB (Short) hits new 52 week low despite guiding Q4 revenues to the upper end; We continue to see 2016 risk increasing, significant competition and the perceived inherent operational leverage is unlikely to deliver, Valuation doesn’t add up. Paper/Packaging stocks hit hard following –ve industry report on pricing; INT PAPER -11%, WESTROCK -15%. Siemens (pink +3%) reported Beat & Raise after the close, Orders 8% Beat, Heathcare outperforming; PHILIPS report in the morning. Illiad said to be looking to enter UK market (FT); no major reaction from VODAFONE ADR -2%.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +2.7%, Telcos -30bps, Staples -80bps, Utils -90bps, Semis -1%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Explorers -7.6%, Drillers -6%, Regional Banks -4.2%, Homebuilders -3.3%, Retail -2%

COMMODS: OJ +2%, Silver +1.2%, Gold +90bps, Nat Gas +90bps, Copper -50bps, Ally -60bps, Gasoline -5%, WTI -6%

ECO: Dallas Fed -34.6, est -14.5

RAMBUS +8.9% q4 eps/revs beat, fy guide better
SWIFT +5.2% q4 eps beat, revs just light, fy est at midpoint of guide
SANMINA +3.6% q1 inline, q2 guide better than est


HORTONWORKS -9.4% d/g @ Oppenheimer
APPLE -2% said to release new prods in 1H16 per reports, reit o/p @ RBC
TWITTER -4.6% mgmt shakeups, t/o vulnerability highlighted in press
AMAZON.COM unch’d: positive comments @ Stifel
WESTERN DIGITAL -5.1% extreme bear case priced in per note @ Jefferies
YAHOO +10bps accelerating stock vesting to retain employees, VERIZON said to have bid for core assets, u/g @ Pivotal
INTEL -1.1% u/g @ Macquarie
FIREEYE -7.7% p/t cut @ Wedbush
NETSUITE -5.3% d/g @ Stephens
ZILLOW -2.1% p/t lowered @ Canaccord
SANDISK -8.4% d/g @ CLSA
GRUBHUB -2.4% prelim q4 revs at high end of range, $100mm b/b
ALIBABA -90bps positive comments @ Morgan Stanley
SPRINT -12.2% said to be cutting 2500 jobs

TOLL BROS -4.5% u/g to strong buy @ Raymond James, d/g @ JMP Securities
DR HORTON -4.7% q1 eps penny beat, revs light
WHOLE FOODS -5.2% d/g @ BMO Capital
O’REILLY +1.9% u/g @ Deutsche & @ Sterne Agee
LULULEMON -70bps positive comments @ Jefferies
MATTEL +1.9% u/g to conviction buy @ Goldman
KIMBERLY-CLARK -3.2% q4 eps penny light, small revs miss, sees fy at or below street est
MCDONALDS +70bps q4 eps/revs beat
UNDER ARMOUR -3.7% positive comments @ Canaccord
HERSHEY -1.7% d/g @ OTR Research

REGENERON -2% d/g to sell @ Chardan

JOHNSON CONTROLS -3.9% & TYCO +11.6% agree to merge
CATEPILLAR -5% d/g to sell @ Goldman
CUMMINS -2.7% d/g @ Citi, negative comments @ Longbow
UNITED RENTALS -5.4% positive comments @ Citi

AMERICAN EXPRESS -10bps d/g @ Morgan Stanley & @ Argus, u/g @ Oppenheimer
CHARLES SCHWAB -2.6% u/g @ Nomura

HALIBRUTON -3% q4 eps beats est, inline w/ high end of street
GOLAR LNG -2.7% d/g @ Goldman

MASCO -80bps u/g @ Evercore ISI
MOSAIC -6.1% d/g @ JPMorgan
PACKAGING CORP -13% / INT’L PAPER -10.6% d/g @ Citi

KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN -3.3% p/t lowered @ UBS
JB HUNT +90bps postive comments @ RBC

have a good evening.