Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +2.03% (1906.9), D +1.33% (16093.5), N +2.83% (4259.8), CL1 +8.91% (32.14), Copper +0.30% (200.25), Gold -0.29% (1098.20) 10YrYld +0.02 (2.0536), DXY +0.49% (99.55), Vix -16.56% (22.29).

The S&P closed up 60bps from the European close ending the day just below the mid-afternoon highs. Volume continued to drop off a touch on the 2nd of gains off close to 10% to 9bln shares. Dollars traded off more than 10% to $314bln. Breadth solid though with more than 85% of vol printing to the upside.

Markets continue to recover, led by Shorts and Oil proxies. Eminis +2% vs Most Short +2.4%. S&P +1.4% on the week, a ridiculous 5.3% swing. DXY +50bps attempting mini break out, 100 looking very likely next week; EUR 1.0796, JPY 118.82. Rates continue to move higher, and Banks seeing a little relief; SUNTRUST -2.2% the latest to flag Energy loan concerns. Oil posts biggest 1 day rally since August and closed over 5% higher on the week. WMB +23%, KMI +11%, MPC +8% outperform, but truly awful price action in FREEPORT -9%. Copper reclaims $200. On Earnings/updates; SCHLUMBERGER +6%, MAXIM +4%, STARBUCKS +30bps, GE -1.2%, CITIZENS -2.6%, AMEX -12%. GE Q4 Revs 6% Miss but confirmed FY guidance, story remains the same, shrink to grow and focus on high margin areas. A good long to have in this market. SCHLUMBERGER being rewarded for cutting 10k jobs to clear $10bn Buyback and maintain the div, but on the call and within the statement a reminder that we’re not at the bottom and things are dreadful out there. Full thoughts today’s note. AMERICAN EXPRESS disaster de jour, Co making aggressive cost cuts but says difficult to say when co will return to EPS growth targets; V/MA +2%. APPLE +5.3% posts biggest rally since August, the debate over earnings continues, thankfully only 2 more sessions till we get the real thing; QORVO +9%, SKYWORKS +6%. Full list of earnings below; Amazon, AT&T, CAT, Chevron, Crown Castle, Facebook, Freeport, MasterCard, Qualcomm, Skyworks, Utd Rentals; FOMC, and GDP.

OUTPERFORMERS: Energy +4.4%, Tech Hardware +4%, Inv Banks +3.7%, Biotech +3.3%, Homebuilder +3.1%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Railroads -1%, Materials -30bps, Autos +30bps, Industrials +80bps, Gold Miners +90bps

COMMODS: Brent +10.3%, WTI +9.4%, Gasoline +5.3%, Copper +40bps, Nat Gas +30bps, Gold -5bps, Silver -20bps, Nickel -50bps

ECO: Markit Man PMI 52.7, est 51.0. Existing Home Sales 5.46m, est 5.20m; MoM 14.7 %, 9.2%.

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Telcos +4%, SOX +4%, Solar +3%, Homebuilders +2%, Retail +2%

WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMERS: Railroads -5%, Banks -2.5%, Gold Miners -1%, Materials +1%, Utils +1%


QUALCOMM +2.2% u/g @ Northland
APPLE +5.3% positive comments @ Piper Jaffray
SAP +35bps reports q4 #s, boots 2017 forecast
DISNEY +3.1% positive comments in Barron’s
SPLUNK +3.6% seen close to partnership w/ IBM @ Northland
FACEBOOK +4% positive comments into #s @ Oppenheimer
BAIDU +1% d/g @ Nomura
MAXIM +3.7% q2 revs beat, q3 view below est

CITIZENS FINANCIAL -2.6% q4 inline
SUNTRUST -2.2% q4 inline
AMERICAN EXPRESS -12.1% q4 beats
LEGG MASON -1.8% q3 eps beat but revs miss
E-TRADE -1% q4 inline, darts fall q/q
VISA +1.6% /MASTERCARD +2.2% positive comments @ Oppenheimer
NORTHERN TRUST +2.4% u/g @ Sandler O’Neil
SL GREEN +5.5% u/g @ SunTrust

BRISTOL-MYERS +2% u/g @ Berenberg
INTUITIVE SURGICAL +1.9% q4 eps beats, revs inline w/ prelim #

STARBUCKS +25bps q1 eps beats but revs below est
SKECHERS -1.9% d/g @ Susquehanna
SOTHEBY’S +4.4% sees q4 better than est on adj basis, eliminating div, boosting b/b
TIFFANY +1% $500mm b/b
RESTORATION HARDWARE +3.6% p/t cut @ KeyBanc
RALPH LAUREN +1% #s cut @ Stephens
ROYAL CARIBBEAN +30bps positive comments @ Stephens

GENERAL ELECTRIC -1.2% q4 eps beats, revs short
ROCKWELL COLLINS 1.6% q1 eps inline, revs touch light

MASCO +2.7% u/g @ Baird

SOUTHWEST ENERGY -35bps Viking reports 9.2% stake (#3 hldr)
SCHLUMBERGER +6.1% q4 small eps beat, small revs miss, new $10bln b/b
ENERGY TRANSFER PARTNERS +14.9% d/g @ Oppenheimer
CHESAPEAKE -1.1% suspends preferred stock dividends

KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN +4.5% q4 eps beats, revs miss

Next week’s Earnings and Eco Highlights…..

MON: DR Horton, Halliburton, Kimberly Clark, McDonalds, Steel Dynamics, Swift Trans, Zions Banc
TUE: 3M, AK Steel, Apple, AT&T, Coach, Capital One, Corning, Danaher, Dover, Du Pont, Freeport, J&J, Lockheed, Parker Hannifin, P&G, Stryker, US Steel, WW Grainger; CaseShiller, Comp/Services PMI, Consumer Conf
WED: Biogen, Boeing, Cirrus, Crown Castle, eBay, EMC, Facebook, Fiat Chrysler, General Dynamics, Hess, Juniper, Lam Research, LV Sands, Qualcomm, Norfolk Southern, PayPal, SanDisk, Texas Ins, Textron, Utd Rentals, Utd Tech, Varian; New Home Sales, FOMC
THU: Abbott, Airgas, Alibaba, Altria, Amazon, Amgen, Baker Hughes, Bristol Myers, Broadcom, Carbo, CAT, Celgene, Cypress Semi, EA, Eli Lilly, Fairchild Semi, Ford, Fortinet, Harley Davidson, Harman, H&P, Hersey, JetBlue, Johnson Controls, L3 Comm, Lear, Mead Johnson, Microsoft, Northrop, Nucor, Potash, Putle, Raytheon, Sherwin Williams, Skyworks, Stanley B&D, Synaptics, TW Cable, Under Armour, Valero, Visa, Western Digital; Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales
FRI: Abbvie, Air Products, American Air, Baxalta, Chevron, Colgate, Honeywell, MasterCard, PACCAR, Praxair, Tyco, Whirlpool, Xerox; GDP, Chicago PM, Michigan Sentiment

Have a great weekend.