Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.51% (1868.9), D +0.74% (15882.7), N +0.15% (4142.6), CL1 +4.90% (29.73), Copper +1.96% (199.80), Gold +0.06% (1101.64) 10YrYld +0.04 (2.0241), DXY -0.07% (99.03), Vix -2.72% (26.84).

The S&P closed down 25bps from the European close but still holds on to gains for the day. Volume was off more than 20% to under 10bln shares. Dollars traded off 25% to $340bln. About 2/3 of volume to the upside today.

Today’s rally not exactly convincing, Oil proxies and top shorts leading. Most Short +1.4%. DXY gave back the ECB rally; EUR retested 1.09. Rates coming back with 10yr back above 2%; but not reflecting in the Banks, worth keeping an eye on this divergence; FIFTH THIRD -5%. GOLDMAN -1.4% Technical target hit, short closed for 15% abs, 6% rel. DOE Data showed bigger build in crude but market didn’t seem to care, Oil rallied post number; USO +4%, FREEPORT +6%. On Earnings/updates; KINDER MORGAN +16% (crappy numbers but more CapEx cuts), XILINX +9% (actually had decent quarter), LOGITECH +8% (+ve eGaming), ALASKA AIR +8% (raised Div), VERIZON +3.5% (small beat), FIREYE -50bps (+ve bookings, today’s move telling), SOUTHWEST AIR +1% (inline), TRAVELERS -1% (Rev light). UNION PACIFIC (Short) -3.5% we remain Sellers post earnings Miss, declining volume is just the tip of the iceberg as degrading mix and fuel surcharge fees are further weighing on segment revenues, refused to give guidance. APPLE (Sell) -60bps lagging today, within VZ numbers, 4G LTE devices slowing YoY; Technical target $90, earnings Tuesday. NETFLIX (Short) -5% closed below 200dma; valuation/FCF/margins. Overall, not a lot of news today, GENERAL ELECTRIC (Buy) +2% the highlight tomorrow.

OUTPERFORMERS: Energy +3.1%, Telco +2.4%, Materials +2.2%, SOX +1.5%, Airlines +1.5%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Biotech -2.4%, Railroads -2.2%, Refiners -2.1%, Inv Banks -1.9%, Regional Banks -1.5%

COMMODS: WTI +4.7%, Sugar +2%, Nat Gas +1.7%, Copper +1.6%, Ally +80bps, Silver -40bps, Gold -40bps

ECO: Philly Fed -3.5, est -5.9%. Initial Jobless 293k, est 278k.


MAXIM +3% q2 revs beat, q3 view below est
STARBUCKS -4% q1 eps beats but revs below est
E-TRADE -1.4% q4 inline, darts fall q/q
SCHLUMBERGER +2% q4 eps beats, $10bln b/b


FITBIT +2.3% u/g @ Raymond James
PEARSON +16.6% fy ebit seen below est, announces restructuring initiatives
AMAZON +60bps positive comments @ Piper Jaffray
ERICSSON -25bps d/g to sell @ Goldman
XILINX +8.6% q3 eps inline, revs beat, change of control provision stokes t/o spec
VERIZON +3.2% q4 small eps/revs beat, beats subs est
LOGITECH +7.4% q3 eps beat, res miss, retail sales growth seen better than est
F5 NETWORKS -60bps q1 eps, revs beat
APPLE -50bps iPhone ests cut again @ Credit Suisse
LINKEDIN +25bps p/t cut @ Nomura
GRUBHUB -4.9% p/t cut to street low @ Cowen

SOUTHWEST AIR +50bps q4 inline
ALASKA AIR +8.1% q4 eps beat, revs inline
UNITED CONTINENTAL +50bps q4 eps/revs miss
LIFELOCK -9.9% CEO change, sees fy inline to small better than est
CARNIVAL +2.6% cruise names defended @ Wedbush

EDWARD LIFESCIENCES +3.1% u/g @ SunTrust

BRIGGS & STRATTON +8.5% q2 eps beat, revs miss
EMERSON ELECTRIC +70bps init sell @ Citi
ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS +40bps init buy @ Citi

BNY MELLON -3.3% q4 beat
KEYCORP -30bps q4 eps 1c light
FIFTH THIRD -4.8% q4 eps 1c better
TRAVELERS -90bps q4 eps /revs beat
BB&T -3.3% q4 eps miss, revs small beat
WR BERKLEY unch’d: u/g @ Morgan Stanley

SENSATA -2.1% d/g @ Wells Fargo

PPG -1.7% q4 eps inline, revs small miss
OWENS CORNING +2.5% / BEACON ROOFING +65bps u/g @ Longbow

OIL STATES +2.8% d/g @ Baird
INTEROIL +13.9% u/g @ Goldman
KINDER MORGAN +15.6% reports #s, cuts spending for this yr

UNION PACIFIC -3.6% q4 eps/revs miss
Have a good evening.