Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -1.17% (1859.3), D -1.56% (15766.7), N -0.26% (4136.3), CL1 -6.71% (26.55), Copper +0.40% (198.55), Gold +1.28% (1101.23) 10YrYld -0.06 (1.9928), DXY +0.07% (99.06), Vix +5.60% (27.51).

The S&P closed up 1.4% from the European close after bottoming out mid-session. Volumes heavier up 30% today to 12.4bln shares, more than 50% above avg. Dollars traded up 30% as well to $456bln, also more than 50% above avg. About 3/4 of the volume to the downside. Closing below the August closing low, 171 S&P 500 stocks touching new 52 week lows today, the most for this move.

Brutal session across global markets, S&P breaks August flash crash lows then bounced 3% over the afternoon. Most Short +1.1% vs Eminis -1%; impressive volume. Some citing DeMark comments (I’ll stick with Ronco). Japan and UK join the “Bear market” club. DXY holding the trend; New highs CAD, RUB. JPY strength hurting NKY. Rates bounced a little over the afternoon, 10yr 1.9894. 2/10 yield curve, in new territory post crisis. Oil sees biggest move of the year, total carnage across all major proxies; XOM -4%, COP -4.5%. Gold retesting 100dma; GDX +3.1%. Very little new news behind the capitulation today, 34% of the S&P hit a new 52 week low. Today’s earnings; CREE +8%, ASML +6%, NETFLIX -10bps, GOLDMAN -2%, NORTHERN TRUST -4%, IBM -5%, AMD -8%. NETFLIX printed +12% last night, was -10% at its worst today and closed flat; the bulls jumped on the Intl sub guide but we remain Sellers based on 433x P/E multiple, FCF deterioration, US slowdown. Full thoughts on today’s note. IBM back to levels not seen since 2010, guidance 30% below the street, cites strong USD, pathetic performance of the core business. AMD also posted weak guidance but highlighted strong demand for gaming; supportive NVIDIA +55bps. Elsewhere, big short squeeze in Biotech; IBB. Semis also turned +ve into the last hour; SYNAPTICS +27% said to be close to deal with China backed investor (bberg). Looking into tomorrow; good mix of earnings, SLB will be interesting. Draghi speaking 8:30am.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +3.1%, Biotech +2.8%, Materials +1.1%, SOX +70bps, Airlines +60bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Integrated -3.8%, Inv Banks -3.1%, Real Estate -3%, Utils -2.3%, Oil Services -2.2%

ECO: Housing Starts 1149k, est 1200k; MoM -2.5%, est +2.3%. Building Permits 1232k, est 1200k; MoM -3.9%, est -6.4%. CPI -0.1%, est 0.0%.

COMMODS: Gold +1.3%, Nat Gas +1.3%, Silver +50bps, Copper -10bps, Ally -80bps, Sugar -3.7%, Cocoa -4.2%, WTI -6.7%
AFTER-HRS NEWS/MOVES:

FIREEYE +7.3% $275mm acq, q4 billings in range
XILINX +30bps q3 eps inline, sees q4 revs roughly flat
LIFELOCK -3% CEO stepping down, reports better prelim fy #s

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
NETFLIX -15bps eps beat, revs inline, strong int’l subs
ADVANCED MICRO -7.7% q4 loss inline, revs small beat, margins inline
IBM -4.9% q4 eps small beat, revs inline
PAYPAL -3.1% positive comments @ Deutsche
FIREEYE -2.4% p/t lowered @ Wunderlich
WAYFAIR +9.7% u/g @ Citi
RUCKUS WIRELESS -5.5% / BARRACUDA +2% d/g @ Guggenheim
CISCO -4% cautious comments @ Piper Jaffray
ASML +6.2% q4 eps beat, revs inline, q1 sales guidance light
SYMANTEC -1.1% lower Veritas deal agreed w/ Carlyle
APPLE +15bps cautious note @ UBS
SYNAPTICS +26.6% said moving closer to deal w/ Chinese-backed investor

CONSUMER
LENAR -75bps u/g @ Susquehanna
GNC +6.2% positive sss, sees fy at high end
MCDONALD’S -1.5% top sector pick @ Nomura
BRINKER -3.3% q2 eps beat, sales light
CREE +8.3% beats, guidance better than est

HEALTHCARE
MEDICINES CO +14.4% said to explore sale
CAPITAL GOODS
PARKER-HANNIFIN -1.6% d/g @ Jefferies

FINANCIALS
ITG +9.6% u/g @ JPMorgan
VOYA -1.4% u/g @ BofA/Merrill
PRUDENTIAL -2.8% d/g @ BofA/Merrill
GOLDMAN SACHS -2% #s beat, ficc miss
NORTHERN TRUST -3.9% q4 beat
TD AMERITRADE -2.1% q1 beats

ENERGY
CARBO CERAMICS -11.9% suspends dividend
CNOOC -3.6% u/g @ Jefferies

MATERIALS
WR GRACE -3.6% sees fy better than est
SHERWIN WILLIAMS +2.5% u/g @ Goldman

Have a good evening.