Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.05% (1881.3), D +0.17% (16016.0), N +0.14% (4147.1), CL1 -3.81% (28.30), Copper +1.26% (196.80), Gold -0.18% (1086.90) 10YrYld +0.02 (2.0556), DXY +0.10% (99.06), Vix -3.70% (26.02).

The S&P fell 50bps from the European close to end the day just better than flat rising 90bps from the lows of the day over the last hour though losing a third of a percent in the last 10 minutes. Volumes lighter than Friday’s expiration day, off 15% to 9.2bln shares, still 20% above the 20 day average. Dollars traded off more than 20% to $340bln, still $50bln above avg. Despite the S&P just closing up on the day, 70% of volume nonetheless printing to the downside.

Markets came for sale straight off the open, we retested Friday’s low then bounced 20 points over last hour. Eminis -20bps vs Most Short -3%. DXY holds 99 and uptrend, Rates head back to recent lows; 10yr 2.04. Oil falls nearly 6% from early morning highs, back end of the curve remains in freefall; Copper held bounce a little better. New lows; ALCOA -2.3%, USO -3.4%, KINDER MORGAN -3.5% (earnings tomorrow), GDX -4.7%, HESS -6%, CONOCO -7.5%. China proxies higher following inline data; ASHR +5%, FXI +2.5%. European markets dragged lower by US, hopes remain of a squeeze into Draghi Thursday. On Earnings/Updates; DELTA +3.3%, UNITED HEALTH +3%, ELY LILLY +2.5%, MORGAN STANLEY +1.1%, BAML -1.5%, TIFFANY -5%. Banks continue to slide despite no major disasters in earnings; BAML hit a new 52 week low intraday, concerns over Revenue growth and expenses. MORGAN STANLEY looked to be priced in for a Miss but came in better, exceeding costs cuts. GOLDMAN (Technical Sell) +80bps reports in the morning. TIFFANY -5% sees FY at the lower end, not a surprise given recent quarters, USD and slow tourist spending continues to hurt. MACY’S +2.3% as Greenlight announced new stake, sparking more t/o chatter. MICRON -2.5% continues to bleed as China’s Tsinghua say chance of acquiring co “slim”. WHIRPOOL -1.1% failed to get much interest on strong AHAM number, +17% in Dec and 10% higher than forecasts.

OUTPERFORMERS: Managed HC +2%, Hhold Products +1.8%, Utils +1.5%, Staples +1.2%, Telcos +1.2%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Drillers -5.6%, Gold Miners -4.7%, Oil Services -3.5%, Biotech -2.2%, Materials -2.1%

COMMODS: Cotton +1.7%, Corn +1.2%, Silver +1%, Copper +1%, Gold -30bps, Nat Gas -30bps, Sugar -1%, WTI -3%

ECO: NAHB Housing Market Index 60, est 61


CREE +6.6% q2 beats, guidance better than est
NETFLIX +9.4% q4 eps beat, revs inline, strong int’l subs
IBM -2.4% q4 eps small beat, revs inline
ADVANCED MICRO -1.5% q4 loss inline, revs small beat, margins inline


APPLE -50bps #s lowered @ William Blair, positive comments @ Goldman Sachs
3D SYSTEMS -5.4% cautious comments @ Piper
ATMEL +75bps d/g @ Morgan Stanley
MICROCHIP +2.9% u/g @ Morgan Stanley
CITRIX +10bps d/g @ Morgan Stanley
FITBIT -1.7% positive comments @ RBC
MADISON SQ GARDEN +25bps d/g @ Stifel
SKYWORKS -50bps u/g @ Needham
PANDORA unch’d u/g @ BTIG
DISNEY +10bps p/t cut @ Stifel
MICRON -2.5% positive comments @ Bernstein; Tsinghua not optimistic on deal
VIACOM +4.7% on reports activists eyeing

TIFFANY -5.1% poor holiday sales, sees #s at low end of range
BEST BUY -4.6% d/g @ Morgan Stanley
DR HORTON +1.1% / LENNAR +20bps u/g @ Sterne Agee CRT
DUNKIN BRANDS +5bps d/g @ William Blair
SHAKE SHACK +4.5% u/g William Blair
PROCTOR & GAMBLE +2.3% u/g @ Stifel
CAMPBELL SOUP +2.5% u/g @ JPMorgan
MICHAEL KORS +50bps u/g @ Piper Jaffray
DELTA +3.3% sees q1 passenger unit revs down 2.5-4.5%
CHILDRENS PLACE +50bps p/t raised @ Susquehanna

COMERICA -3.7% q4 small eps/revs beat
BANK OF AMERICA -1.5% q4 eps penny beat, revs light
SYNOVUS -35bps q4 net interest income touch abve est
NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANK -55bps u/g @ FBR Capital
ALLSTATE +55bps u/g @ Macquarie
MORGAN STANLEY +1.1% q4 eps/revs beat
REGIONS FINANCIAL -1.5% u/g @ Piper Jaffrey
CITI -1.3% p/t lowered @ UBS

JOHNSON & JOHNSON +50bps restructuring med device business
UNITEDHEALTH +3% q4 beats, reaffirms fy 16 ahead of street est
SHIRE +1.1% u/g @ Exane BNP
ST JUDE MEDICAL -2% d/g @ Wells Fargo
TENET HEALTHCARE +4% u/g @ Mizuho

PROGRESSIVE WASTE +9.3% after strategic review to be acq’d by WASTE CONNECTIONS +7.4% in stock deal

Have a good evening