Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -2.27% (1880.3), D -2.39% (15988.1), N -3.09% (4141.1), CL1 -5.06% (29.64), Copper -1.64% (194.40), Gold +0.95% (1088.83) 10YrYld -0.06 (2.0295), DXY -0.19% (98.91), Vix +15.24% (27.23).

The S&P closed up 20bps from the European close and 120bps from the mid-session lows of the day. Also essentially flat over the last hour. Volume up about 7% to 10.6bln shares, 3bln above avg. Dollars traded up 11% to $428bln, 50% above avg. Just about 90% of volume printing to the down side. 132 new 52 week lows on the S&P, not surprisingly a new high for this move down.

Markets lower across the board, multiple catalysts out there; Oil, China, macro, earnings. Eminis -2%, Most Short -2.8%. On the year; S&P -8% and Nasdaq -10%. Europe slips into Bear market. China proxies; FXI -5%, ASHR -5%. DXY -20bps hit on disappointing macro (see below), some worrying charts out there (CAD, EM FX, GBP, JPY). 10yr broke 2% briefly, New lows HYG -1.3%/JNK -1.2%. Oil and Copper also make new lows; Gold reversing yesterday’s weakness. On Earnings/updates; WYNN RESORTS +13%, ANALOG DEVICES -1.4%, WELLS FARGO -3.6%, CITIGROUP -6.4%, INTEL -9%. Any news didn’t really matter today, everything down, 132 new 52 week lows in the S&P; Ricarrdo continues to flag charts supporting more downside. I’ve been watching the BKX Index (-3%) chart and that has now broken. New lows APPLE -2.5%, we now count 14 supply chain warnings/cautionary statements; supply chain crushed again, ARM -6%, SKYWORKS -6%, QORVO -7%. Earnings step up a gear next week and it’s hard to see what could give us a lift there. BAC -3.5%, MS -4.4% & GS (Technical Short) -3.6% may offer some better insight into High Yield and Debt markets given their end markets. SCHLUMBERGER the first big Oil proxy on Thursday will be interesting. And in our names; NETFLIX (Short) -3%, UNION PACIFIC (Short) -1.8% and GENERAL ELECTRIC (Buy) -2%. Full list below. US markets, including Oil closed on Monday might give Europe some hope, but China is open and we have some big data coming; IP/Retail Sales/GDP.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners unch, Homebuilders -1%, Utils -1%, Telco -1.2%, Pharma -1.3%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Solar -6%, Semis -5.8%, Drillers -5.2%, Chems -4.2%, Inv Banks -3.9%

COMMODS: Gold +1.5%, Silver +1.1%, Ally -80bps, Copper -1.5%, Nat Gas -1.8%, Gasoline -3.9%, WTI -5%, Brent -5.5%

ECO: Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas 0.0%, est +0.4%. PPI -0.2%, est -0.2%. Empire Man -19.37, est -4.00. Industrial Prod -0.4%, est -0.2%. Michigan Sentiment 93.3, est 92.9.

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Integrated +2.7%, Oils +70bps, Telco -30bps, Tech Hardware -1.2%, Staples -1.5%

WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMERS: Solar -13%, Materials -12%, Drillers -10%, Gold Miners -9.5%, Chems -9%


INTEL -9.1% q4 eps/revs
ANALOG DEVICES -1.4% Apple-driven warning
AMAZON -3.9% positive comments @ Susquehanna, & @ RBC
ELECTRONIC ARTS +2.5% u/g @ BofA/Merrill, positive comments @ Cowen
ACTIVISION -1.4% Vivendi confirms disposal of shares
DISNEY -5.3% d/g @ Barclays
ERICSSON -5.8% d/g @ Deutsche
GARMIN -2% d/g @ Credit Suisse
MICROCHIP -3.6% u/g @ Needham
SIRIUS XM -2.4% u/g @ BMO
F5 NETWORKS -70bps d/g @ Sterne Agee
NOKIA -3% u/g @ Argus
RACKSPACE -7.2% Microsoft cuts pricing

GILEAD -1.3% u/g @ BofA/Merrill
SHIRE -1.5% u/g @ BofA/Merrill
NOVARTIS -3% d/g @ Barclays
SAREPTA -54.5% poor FDA report

FASTENAL -4% q4 miss
UNITED RENTALS -3.9% u/g @ Longbow
DOVER -5% d/g @ Bernstein
BORG WARNER -5.5% d/g @ CLSA
TASER -5.5% competitor DIGITAL ALLY +7.4% patent upheld

CITI -6.4% lvs tgts unch’d on “difficult” 2016 view
WELLS FARGO -3.6% small beat
US BANCORP -2.2% inline #s

NEWELL RUBBERMAID -90bps positive comments @ Wells Fargo
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE -30bps u/g @ Exane BNP
DR HORTON -1% d/g @ UBS
LENNAR -35bps u/g @ UBS
HYATT -4.3% d/g to sell @ Goldman
CAMPBELL SOUP -90bps d/g @ Barclays
WHITEWAVE +1.4% u/g @ Barclays
WYNN RESORTS +13.3% reports prelim q4 Macau revs
WALMART -1.8% discloses store closure plans

KIRBY -20bps p/t slashed @ Stephens

EAGLE MATERIALS -1% defended @ Citi
MOSAIC +1.6% u/g @ Goldman
MASCO -50bps u/g @ UBS
ROYAL GOLD -2.8% d/g @ BMO

Next week’s Earnings and Eco highlights…..

MON: Closed
TUE: BAML, Charles Schwabb, Comerica, Delta, First Horizon, Morgan Stanley, Tiffany Sales, United Health, AMD, Cree, Netflix; NAHB Housing
WED: ASML, Goldman, Logitech, Kinder Morgan, Northern Trust, Xilinx; Housing Starts, CPI
THU: Alaska Air, Canadian Pac, Cypress Semi, Farichild Semi, Fifth Third, PPG, Precision Castparts, Southwest Air, Travelers, Union Pacific, Utd Conti, Verizon, Amex, E-trade, KLAC, Maxim, Microsemi, Schlumberger, Starbucks; Philly Fed
FRI: Citizens Fin, GE, KC Southern, Rockwell Collins, SunTrust, Synchrony Fin; Existing Home Sales

Have a great weekend.