Aviate US Sumary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.78% (1938.7), D +0.72% (16516.2), N +1.17% (4333.7), CL1 -2.23% (30.71), Copper -0.66% (195.95), Gold -0.40% (1089.86) 10YrYld -0.07 (2.1050), DXY +0.25% (98.97), Vix -8.31% (22.28).

The S&P closed up 75bps from the European close with another late day rally (+130bps from afternoon lod). Volumes incrementally down vs yesterday just under 9bln shares. Dollars traded off 7%. Down volume on the day just edging up volume.

Another volatile session, Eminis saw a 40 point rally from overnight lows, gave back 35 then bounced 25….fun times! DXY +30bps recent uptrend remains intact. Rates lower, 10yr breaks Dec low, 2.09. Banks +80bps, continue to watch for break in BKX; GS (Technical Short) new low for move. Oil saw 6% rally in early trade then slammed the same again, making first print sub $30. API 4:30pm. Copper also makes new lows and hopes of Gold rally fading fast. FREEPORT -5%, SOUTHWEST ENERGY -9%, WILLIAMS -12%. ALCOA -9% crushed on earnings and likely to be a sign of things to come this earnings season. Mike highlights the read through to variety of end markets on today’s note. Also on the note, FACEBOOK +2% catching a bid again and reclaims 100dma, positive ad growth data and VR momentum through 2016. GOOGLE +1.7% announced plans to start VR division. APPLE +1.5% sees another upgrade but iPhone ests continue to be taken down and we continue to believe risk/reward skewed to downside; SKULL CANDY -29%, what to people use headphones for?! Healthcare remains in focus with more preannouncements ahead of presentations; HORIZON PHARMA +6%, ANTHEM +6%, MEDTRONIC +5%, AETNA +4%, REGENERON -1.2%. And, in Detroit DBK hosting Autos conference alongside motor show; VISTEON +1.6%, LEAR +2.1%, DELPHI -1.2%. Elsewhere on preannouncements/updates; COGNIZANT +6%, LULULEMON +4%, SAP +4%, GAMESTOP -5%. Looking into tomorrow; no major earnings, Beige book.

OUTPERFORMERS: Refiners +2.5%, Biotech +1.6%, Railroads +1.3%, Semis +1.3%, Media +1.2%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Materials -2.2%, Gold Miners -2.2%, Solar -2.2%, Explorers -1.9%, Chems -1%

COMMODS: Wheat +2.2%, Corn +1.1%, Silver -50bps, Gold -60bps, Ally -1%, Gasoline -2.6%, WTI -2.7%, Nat Gas -5.6%

ECO: NFIB Small Biz 95.2, est 95.0. JOLTS Jobs 5431, est 5450


TRACTOR SUPPLY -3.2% q4 warning
CSX CORP -2.1% q4 eps beat, revs miss, sees ’16 eps below ‘15
FORD -1.2% 25c/shr supplemental dividend, sees record 2015 pre-tax profit, 2016 inline or higher than ‘15
RED ROBIN GORMET BURGERS -75bps prelim q4 eps seen above est, revs below
METLIFE +9.6% mulls ipo of US retail ops


APPLE +1.5% remains a top pick @ Piper, u/g @ BofA/Merrill
CIENA +2.3% u/g @ Morgan Stanley
INTEL +1.9% u/g @ Mizuho
SAP +2.3% q4 prelim #s
F5 NETWORKS -1% d/g @ Deutsche
FIREEYE -3.1% exec departure for Dell
GAMESTOP -5.1% narrows forecast on holiday results
DREAMWORKS +5.3% u/g @ FBR
TIMEWARNER +2.1% activist/break-up speculation continues

EXPRESS -3.3% raises q4 view
MEAD JOHNSON +15bps d/g @ Nomura
COCA-COLA +1.3% u/g @ Stifel
STEVE MADDEN +5.7% reverses higher after prelim sales miss
LULULEMON +3.8% raises q4 guidance
BURLINGTON STORES +14.4% lowers high end of q4 guide
HAIN CELESTIAL +7.3% guides q2 lower than est
SKULLCANDY -28.4% prelim fy #s below est
VF CORP +2.3% u/g @ Sterne Agee
STARBUCKS +2.8% discusses China expansion plans
ASCENA -9.4% poor holiday comps

ANTHEM +5.6% sees fy middle of prior range, touch below street est
SHIRE +6.8% u/g @ Credit Suisse
HORIZON PHARMA +6.2% guides fy sales above prior view

SUNTRUST +1.8% u/g @ BofA/Merrill
COMERICA -60bps d/g @ BofA/Merrill
WELLS FARGO +2.5% u/g @ Keefe Bruyette
EVERCORE +3.2% u/g to conviction buy @ Goldman
LAZARD -2.6% d/g @ Goldman
STIFEL +2.4% u/g from selel @ Goldman

ALCOA -9% q4 eps beats, revs light
BHP BILLITON -3.6% d/g @ Barclays
SOUTHERN COPPER -2.7% d/g @ Barclays
FREEPORT-MCMORAN -4.6% sinks below $4 at one point

OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM -40bps d/g @ Jefferies
TOTAL +15bps, ENI +30bps u/g @ Jefferies
PATTERSON-UTI +1.2% d/g @ Simmons
SEADRILL -4.9% u/g off conviction sell list @ Goldman
WILLIAMS COS -11.5% Fitch d/g

IHS -3.2% earnings miss
APOLLO EDUCATION +15.8% on reports in talk w Apollo Group (p/e)
LEXMARK +1.7% said to consider breakup

SWIFT +1.9% p/t cut @ KeyBanc

Have a good evening.