Aviate Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.66% (2040.6), D +0.90% (17481.5), N -0.09% (4400.3), CL1 +4.58% (40.22), Copper +2.33% (228.60), Gold -0.46% (1256.77) 10YrYld -0.01 (1.8976), DXY -1.17% (94.77), Vix -4.07% (14.38).

The S&P closed up 35bps from the European close to end the day near the highs of today’s range after working high most of the afternoon. Volumes up 6% today to just under 8.1bln shares pushing over avg of 8bln. Dollars traded up 7% to $292bln about $20bln above avg. 4:1 up volume over down volume on the day.

Markets generally higher, Nasdaq lagging; Energy/Materials lead on USD weakness, lower for longer keeps pressure on Financials. Most Short +1.5%. Dow turns positive on the year, S&P only -16bps. DXY -1.2% chart looking ugly again; Euro testing 1.13 and Yen briefly below 111. EM bouncing; SA raised rates and hopes Rouseff will finally be ousted growing; EZA +4%, EWZ +9%. Rates remain under pressure, Banks hit in early trade but recovered over the afternoon; BKX +50bps. Commods making the most of the USD weakness; Oil breaks above $40, Copper testing 200dma, Silver breaking out and Gold working back to the highs. FREEPORT +6%, DEVON +4%. On Earnings; FEDEX +12% (Beat and Raise, dismissed disruption concerns; supporting XLI/TRAN), EMERSON +6% (sees April orders turning +ve), WILLIAMS SONOMA -6% (weak guide), JABIL -11% (weak guide, flags mobility which is essentially APPLE), GUESS (weak guide). CATERPILLAR +2% breaking out despite cutting Q1 EPS 30% and Revs 10% post conference presentation; clearly market already there. Biotech remains weak, ENDO -11% cutting Q1 guidance at conference, new lows VALEANT -12%. Pershing cut their stake in MONDELEZ -2 by 20m shares, not a huge surprise, nor is it to see HERBALIFE +4% break to fresh 1 year high! APPLE -20% (Sell) underperformed and failed again to break above 100dma, on top of JABIL we had –ve commentary from Pegatron in Asia. Looking into tomorrow; earnings expected from TIFFFANY (Sell) +30bps. Earnings next week from NIKE (QCC) +2%, launched self lacing sneaker today, over 30 years in the making.

OUTPERFORMERS: Oil Services +3.5%, Materials +3.3%, Transport +2.5%, Drillers +2.5%, Inv Banks +2.3%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -2.2%, Biotech -1%, Refiners -80bps, Con Disc +20bps, Tech Hardware +40bps

COMMODS: Silver +4.7%, WTI +4.5%, Nat Gas +4.3%, Nickel +3.4%, Copper +2.6%, Gold +2.4%, Ally +1.7%, Wheat -1.8%

ECO: Initial Jobless 265k , est 268k. Philly Fed 12.4, est -1.5%. JOLTS Job openings 5541, est 5500.


ADOBE +7.5% q1 eps/revs beat, q2 guide midpoint better than est
SHOE CARNIVAL +5.2% q4 eps/revs beat

21ST CENTURY FOX +21bps d/g @ BTIG
CTRIP.COM -70bps q4 revs beat but q1 view below est
INTEL +90bps potential for co. to lower guidance seen @ Citi
JABIL CIRCUIT -10.6% q2 eps, revs small miss, q3 eps/revs seen below est
NUANCE -15bps Icahn reduced stake yest by 4.4mm shares in block trade
AMD +6.5% reports of possible graphics licensing deal with Intel
AT&T +90bps telco’s u/g @ Wells Fargo

MICHAELS +12.8% q4 eps/revs beat
LAND’S END +3.8% q4 eps miss but revs at high end of range
MELCO CROWN +3.4% u/g @ Macquarie
L BRANDS -40bps d/g @ Credit Suisse
CHIPOTLE -5.8% d/g @ Jefferies
CHILDRENS PLACE +1.8% u/g @ Piper
STARWOOD +40bps d/g @ Nomura
NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE +3.4% u/g @ SunTrust
HERMAN MILLER +5.9% q3 eps beats, revs miss, q4 seen above est
WILLIAMS-SONOMA -6.3% q4 eps/revs just light, q1 seen below est
PANERA BREAD -1.2% cautious note @ ITG
GUESS -14.4% q4 eps just misses, poor guidance
SEAWOLRD +9.4% to transition from Orca shows
OFFICE DEPOT +10.8% press report of fAmazon interest in corporate unit

MCKESSON -2.8% cuts 4% of jobs per press
BAXALTA +50bps prices offering
SAREPTA +17% insider buying ahead of FDA panel
ENDO PHARMA -11.4% q1 seen below est

CATEPILLAR +2.1% sees q1 below est in filing
LOCKHEED MARTIN +50bps init buy @ Berenberg
EMERSON ELECTRIC +6.4% updates guidance in filing

INTERCONTINENTAL +1.3% d/g @ Morgan Stanley

FEDEX +11.8% q3 eps, revs beat, brings up low end of fy range
SCORPIO BULKERS -19.8% prices 21mm share spot secondary

BHP BILLITON +5%, VALE +5.8% d/g @ Nomura

HELMERICH & PAYNE +1.1% d/g @ Morgan Stanley
US SILICA +8.5% 8mm share offering, proceeds for possible acq

Have a good evening.